Question on OPP
  • I know the OPP count doesn't get a lot of love or respect on this forum, but I was wondering:

    a) why you dispute the results of the sim tests that show OPP to be approx. 70% the strength of Hi-Lo

    and

    b) why do you think Arnold Snyder would endorse it if it wasn't a quality system
  • shadow_priest_x said:
    I know the OPP count doesn't get a lot of love or respect on this forum, but I was wondering:

    a) why you dispute the results of the sim tests that show OPP to be approx. 70% the strength of Hi-Lo

    and

    b) why do you think Arnold Snyder would endorse it if it wasn't a quality system



    There are lots of 'politics' in the AP world, unfortunately. But the real reason no one likes OPP is the variance. Anytime you increase your bet you increase your risk. With OPP, which mis-estimates your actual advantage frequently, you end up tossing out big bets when you have no edge. And this just increases your variance and risk of ruin.

    So comparing OPP to Hi-Lo is non-trivial, because risk of ruin is an important issue to a player, and if you take system A vs system B, and you use the same betting "unit" the one with the higher variance will increase your risk of ruin significantly compared to the other system.

    Put another way, which would you want:

    (1) system A has a clean 1% edge over the house, and using A $10 unit with a $5K bank has a risk of ruin of (say) 13%.

    (2) system B has a clean .7% edge over the house, and with the same bank and unit, has a risk of ruin of 25%.

    Which would you prefer? a 1 in 8 chance of going bust or a 1 in 4 chance? So even though the "advantage" compares pretty favorably, the risk of ruin does not...

    That, as Paul Harvey likes to say, is "the rest of the story". Note I don't claim the numbers above are exact, they are for illustration only. But the idea is correct.
  • A member of another forum ran a sim where a player would have a $500 BR,and would spread $5-80,using OPP.The risk of ruin is extraordinary in such a scenerio.
    So,it comes down to if you think an average player with a $500 BR is going to risk that much on a given hand.
    I don't,and see where OPP has some benefit. Others do,and think its worthless.
  • I find it hard to blieve a serious OPP or Hi-Lo Semi-Pro, for example, would even think about entering a game with only five hundred in his pocket. What good is the sim? I would also like to know the ROR you mentioned $500 OPP percent users, or tell me where you read it. Thanks. If anyone knows I would fine it interesting. I am not an AP and attempt to gain some value using a system similar to OPPS. Since many casino went to Hitting s17 and 8 Deck I only play about four times a year. A year ago I picked-up a consulting gig that has been fun since I have more fun burning time assisting this client than practicing blackjack. No question in my mind that a proficient professional counter can limit his damage and increase win chance while playing. I just don't have the time or drive to participate. I don't like to lose either. I have found that my system of counting is sufficient when I consider what I feel is a proper cost for enjoyment. If I can get away for a few days and keep my total loses, including expenses at $1.000 or less, then it kept me happy and having non-stop action for three days. I lost 3 or 4 trips last year and had one fun week winning $1,800. This win reduced my total loses for the year to $1,500. I believe the average trip loss would be greater if I didn't use this simple and less profitable system then just basic strategy.
  • NYB said:
    A member of another forum ran a sim where a player would have a $500 BR,and would spread $5-80,using OPP.The risk of ruin is extraordinary in such a scenerio.
    So,it comes down to if you think an average player with a $500 BR is going to risk that much on a given hand.
    I don't,and see where OPP has some benefit. Others do,and think its worthless.


    I'd never use the term "worthless" for any system that gets you a verifiable edge over the casino. However, I do take issue with the "70% of hi-lo" comparison. Overall advantage is just one aspect of a system. Very much like focusing solely on MPG when buying a new car. Are you _really_ going to like that 3-cylinder Metro compared to something a bit more passenger-friendly?

    There's a lot to consider when choosing a counting system. Overall advantage. Variance. ease of use. Type of game it favors (shoe and BC or single-deck and PE for example). Player bankroll and acceptable RoR. HiLo (and other traditional counting systems) measure up better overall when everything is factored in. Just looking at advantage obtained is a one-dimensional view of a multi-dimensional topic.
  • NYB said:
    A member of another forum ran a sim where a player would have a $500 BR,and would spread $5-80,using OPP.The risk of ruin is extraordinary in such a scenerio.
    So,it comes down to if you think an average player with a $500 BR is going to risk that much on a given hand.
    I don't,and see where OPP has some benefit. Others do,and think its worthless.


    I imagine the risk of ruin would also be extrodinary for Hi Lo, but yah OPP has more variance.
  • jimpenn said:
    I find it hard to blieve a serious OPP or Hi-Lo Semi-Pro, for example, would even think about entering a game with only five hundred in his pocket. What good is the sim? I would also like to know the ROR you mentioned $500 OPP percent users, or tell me where you read it. Thanks. If anyone knows I would fine it interesting. I am not an AP and attempt to gain some value using a system similar to OPPS. Since many casino went to Hitting s17 and 8 Deck I only play about four times a year. A year ago I picked-up a consulting gig that has been fun since I have more fun burning time assisting this client than practicing blackjack. No question in my mind that a proficient professional counter can limit his damage and increase win chance while playing. I just don't have the time or drive to participate. I don't like to lose either. I have found that my system of counting is sufficient when I consider what I feel is a proper cost for enjoyment. If I can get away for a few days and keep my total loses, including expenses at $1.000 or less, then it kept me happy and having non-stop action for three days. I lost 3 or 4 trips last year and had one fun week winning $1,800. This win reduced my total loses for the year to $1,500. I believe the average trip loss would be greater if I didn't use this simple and less profitable system then just basic strategy.


    The sim I'm referring to was run by QFIt,a regylar on many forums. I believe it is quoted extensively on Arnold Snyders website.
  • NYB said:
    The sim I'm referring to was run by QFIt,a regylar on many forums. I believe it is quoted extensively on Arnold Snyders website.


    It is indeed quoted there. Where I am barred from responding. Posts are busted there for major infractions like mentioning someone else's book:)

    The study clearly was not about "semi-pro" players. Why would a semi-pro player use OPP? They claimed that OPP was for recreational players so that's about whom the study was done. Recreational players often have a $500 bankroll. Actually, the average is lower according to the last stats I saw.

    The point is that a very weak strategy requires a large spread to make a decent EV. You have no choice but to make large bets in high-risk situations with a very weak strategy or you won't have any positive EV. And a strategy that counts Sevens the same as Tens is very weak indeed. So, OPP proponents are sending people with a small bankroll into a casino and advising them to bet with a large spread. This is a formula for disaster. My advice to such players is nail Basic Strategy and expect to lose in the long run. But, at least have some fun during your vacation and last through the vacation without ending up walking up and down the strip bankrupt like the rest of the ploppies for the last two days of your vacation.

    The worst advice you can ever give a gambler is that you can teach them to beat the casinos in the car on the way to play. And that's what they did. How many people here believe you can beat the casinos with a couple hours training?
  • I agree with Qufit. Playing blackjack without knowing BS perfectly will make you a two day walker.
  • I agree with Qufit. Playing blackjack without knowing BS perfectly will make you a two day walker.
  • jimpenn said:
    I agree with Qufit. Playing blackjack without knowing BS perfectly will make you a two day walker.




    BS is not something that needs to be memorized. You can pull the proper chart for the game you are playing off of a half dozen and usually place it right next to your chips.
    Even though I can now recite it in my sleep,I still put the BS card on the table,as a form of cover.

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