Amounts to bet?
  • Thanks again to everyone who answered and will answer my post below. What I'm curious about is HOW MUCH should I bet when I buy in with $1,000. And what should I do when the count goes in my favor? I'm curious though, with a $1k or $2k buy in, what are good amounts to bet?

    Thanks-

    Erik

    P.S. I'm going tonight, so I'll apply the advice I have gotten so far.
  • You probably shouldn't bet anything.
  • Considering I'm up since I started playing blackjack, I'm willing to go and bet, thanks for the cynical reply anyways.

    Erik
  • that is a complex question that needs the answers to the following before an answer is possible:

    (1) how big is your bankroll?

    (2) what risk of ruin can you tolerate? Another way to state this is "how bad would it hurt if you lost everything?" A pro gambler plays with a low RoR for that reason. A "weekend warrior" would play much more aggressively if he has a bankroll that is replinishable over time.

    (3) what kind of game will you be playing (single-deck, double-deck, shoe?)

    (4) what are the rules used? (H17 vs S17, DA2 vs D9-11, etc).

    (5) what counting system do you use?

    Once you answer all of those, a program like CVCX can tell you the "optimal betting ramp" (how many chips at each different true-count) to maintain your chosen risk of ruin while maximizing your bankroll growth within that risk of ruin. the optimal betting ramp varies by game and rules.
  • SSR,

    I'll be buying in at the first table for $1,000. My total bankroll tonight is $4,000.
    I can tolerate losing the entire $4,000 as well. Though that's never fun : (

    I'll be playing a Shoe-6 deck's. Rules are S17 and that's it, you can double or split on anything you want-you can split any 10 as well, though I won't be doing that, I don't think.

    I use a multi level count as well.

    I'll go see what the computer says, but in your opinion what would you think. I usually go 1 unit, 1 unit, 4 units, 2 units,8 units. It can vary, like I mentioned before, I can tend to be impulsive, so sometimes I'll throw 20 units on there, and from what I've heard and learned-that's not very effective.

    Erik
  • Nugnrfan82 said:I'll be playing a Shoe-6 deck's. Rules are S17 and that's it, you can double or split on anything you want

    Can you double after you split? Can you surrender? Does the dealer take a hole card? If so, does he check the hole card when he has a ten/ace up? If not, do you lose your splits and doubles when he has a BJ? Can you buy insurance? How deep is the penetration? These are all very important things for a card counter to know. Each one can seriously affect your win rate.

    Nugnrfan82 said: My total bankroll tonight is $4000. I can tolerate losing the entire $4000 as well. Though that's never fun : (

    With a $4k bankroll you’ll probably want to play $5-$50 per hand and leave the table when the TC drops to –1 or –2. That would probably give you a decent RoR.

    Nugnrfan82 said:I'll go see what the computer says, but in your opinion what would you think. I usually go 1 unit, 1 unit, 4 units, 2 units,8 units.

    How does that go with the count? It sounds more like a progression system. How much do you bet at each TC?

    -Sonny-
  • Nugnrfan82 said:
    SSR,

    I'll be buying in at the first table for $1,000. My total bankroll tonight is $4,000.
    I can tolerate losing the entire $4,000 as well. Though that's never fun : (

    I'll be playing a Shoe-6 deck's. Rules are S17 and that's it, you can double or split on anything you want-you can split any 10 as well, though I won't be doing that, I don't think.

    I use a multi level count as well.

    I'll go see what the computer says, but in your opinion what would you think. I usually go 1 unit, 1 unit, 4 units, 2 units,8 units. It can vary, like I mentioned before, I can tend to be impulsive, so sometimes I'll throw 20 units on there, and from what I've heard and learned-that's not very effective.

    Erik


    OK, what I'd do is this. Treat your $4K as a "session" bankroll, which means you are willing to accept a significant risk since you can obtain another "session bankroll" if necessary.

    A good, safe number for a session bankroll is 100 units. That covers your large bets, doubles, and splits, and gives you a reasonable chance of surviving. So your unit is $40, which is playable.

    If I were playing that game, (and I would really need more info, such as is late surrender available) I would look up the exact rules and how they affect the house edge. Any good book covers that, and you can also find it at the wizard of odds web site. Once you know the off-the-top house edge, you can start to plan.

    Here's where it gets vague since I don't know your counting system. I'll use hilo since that is what I use. With HiLo, each increase in the true count increases your advantage by about 1/2%. The typical shoe game without late surrender is around a -.5% player advantage (or an advantage of +.5% (.005) for the house). When the true count reaches one, the game is an even game where your odds are 50-50 in winning. You start your betting at one unit, and so long as the true-count is 1 or less, you stick with that one unit bet (and if it reaches -1 you might make a $0 bet by going to the men's room, or taking a fictitious cell-phone call, or whatever you can do to not play while the TC is negative, without being ultra-obvious about it.) When the TC reaches 2, you start ramping your bet. For a shoe game, I try to spread 1-20, which with your units would be $40 at TC <= 1, and I'd be at $800 by the time the TC reaches 4 or so. How you get there is an issue as you will be jumping your bets significantly and getting up to that max bet will attract some attention if you are not careful.<br />
    For your system (and you said it was multi-level like hi-opt-2 or whatever) the true-count for a raise will be different and you will need to refer to the original system book to find out how your advantage correlates to the count in the system you are using. HiLo is a level-1 counting system where all cards are -1, 0 or +1. Going beyond that causes the count to swing more dramatically and your bet will not ramp exactly with the count at the same scale as my hi-lo example.

    To compute a precise (and optimal) betting ramp requires something like CVCX. Minor variances in the betting ramp can have significant influence on your overall risk of ruin, CVCX can put you on the right track to keep this under control...

    Hope that helps, although most of my real data was for a balanced hi-lo counting system which doesn't apply directly to whatever system you are using.

    Note that my ramp and Sonny's are not very close. But Sonny is treating your $4k as a pure bankroll, I'm treating it as a session/trip bankroll where you can accept a higher risk since the money can be replinished over time.

    Your last comment leaves me cringing, as it sounds more like a progression or whatever, that will absolutely guarantee you that you are going to go broke. The only way to beat a shoe is to bet big when you have an advantage, and small when the house has it. Anything else will produce a 100% risk of ruin. Also, your "spread" has to be significant against a shoe. 1-8 will eke out a small profit (unless your units are huge of course). 1-12 is better. and 1-20 is better still. The decision is based on what kind of betting fluctuation you can get away with without being pegged as a card counter. Spreading $5-$100 (1-20) won't be noticed at most vegas joints unless you go downtown. Spreading $50-$1000 will attract attention anywhere if you do it recklessly.

    Just remember that for any True Count value, there is a "perfect" bet to shove out. Varying from that will either (a) increase your risk of ruin (when you have a larger bet out and the house has an advantage) or your variance (when you have a larger bet out and you have an advantage, but the advantage is smallish). This is like Goldilocks and the three bears. Getting it just right maximizes profit and minimizes RoR, both of which are essential.
  • I'm not sure why everyone is making this more complicated than the question you asked.
    Your buy-in should be around 40 times your bet,at max. So if you are buying in for $1,000 you should be betting about $25.If you want to bet $10 as a unit,your buy-in should be around $400 tops,and if you want to bet $5 a hand as a starting unit,$200 is enough.
    Your question should really be what size bet should I be making,given my BR,not what size my buy-in should be.
  • NYB said:
    I'm not sure why everyone is making this more complicated than the question you asked.
    Your buy-in should be around 40 times your bet,at max. So if you are buying in for $1,000 you should be betting about $25.If you want to bet $10 as a unit,your buy-in should be around $400 tops,and if you want to bet $5 a hand as a starting unit,$200 is enough.
    Your question should really be what size bet should I be making,given my BR,not what size my buy-in should be.


    Perhaps you overlooked his actual question?

    "Thanks again to everyone who answered and will answer my post below. What I'm curious about is HOW MUCH should I bet when I buy in with $1,000. And what should I do when the count goes in my favor? I'm curious though, with a $1k or $2k buy in, what are good amounts to bet? "

    So he was asking _not_ just about buying in, but how should he vary his bet as the count changes. That was the question I tried to answer as straightforward as possible.
  • Nugnrfan82 said:


    I usually go 1 unit, 1 unit, 4 units, 2 units,8 units. It can vary, like I mentioned before, I can tend to be impulsive, so sometimes I'll throw 20 units on there, and from what I've heard and learned-that's not very effective.

    Erik


    Why? That's progression betting. That betting style is worthless in counting because that betting style is based on absolutely nothing, so why bother to count. Then randomly throwing 20 units on there isn't smart either unless you are doing it when the count is sky rocket high.

    Listen to StainlessSteelRat. What he says is exactly what you need to look at to determine your bets. Take that and come up with a spread and forget that progression bet style *cringe*.
  • I would say it'll depend on the table limit you want to play on, how many hands you would want to maintain playing, and if you are up to betting maximum when the count is great. $1k is good if you play in a $5 table limit. Means the max is around $100. I usually play with a capital of at least 100 units or an equivalent of 2 rounds of the max when I play 2-3 hands. If you are up to playing just a single hand bet, play at a $10 table with your $1k. Betting max when the countis good maximizes your wins/betting advantages and shortens your playing time. Always have a quota for winnings in a session and a playing time limit.

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