Money to be made?
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Hello.
I'm just starting to look at Blackjack seriously.
But before I invest the monumental amount of time into it that y'all already have, I'd like to know a couple of things.
1) What size of winning (in one day/week/month?) does it take to get a casino's attention?
2) How much can one win in a day? (obviously this varies, but if an experienced player can pull down $100 in a day or $1,000 it changes things a lot)
I'm thinking that to be truly successful at this, one must stay under the casino's radar. If that radar is around $5,000, a lot of money can be made. If it's more like $500, then there's a problem with my ideas.
Thanks.
PassedPawn -
I think the way to explain this is to look at my history. From 1982 to 1987 I was working as an engineer for GM. I had a terrific job and was doing well in the company. My pay in 1986 was right at $45,000 a year which was a lot for that time frame. But the next year after my divorce I quit my job and moved in Vegas to play BJ and some poker at the time even though my superiors encouraged me to stay on.
Much of my motivation for leaving was not that I would make more money in Vegas. In fact, my original plan was to play small and move to Las Vegas where the cost of living was about half of what was in California.
But there was one other thing that would be very different. I would now enjoy my life and have the freedom that I wanted. Yes there was risk involved in what I planned. But it was a risk I wanted to take, and if things didn't work out, I would face that fact that when the time came. I was simply looking for a better life, one that I might enjoy more. I was prepared to make less money, drive an old car, and don't live in a fancy house, that was fine with me. This is exactly what happened and I would do it over again if I had to.
First year here in Vegas was tough. I had a negative fluctuation of about half my small bank in the first three months. But things turned around and I never looked bank since. I had some great years in which I had big scores and some not so great years in which I barely make it out of red.
I would say, depends, what unit you play and how much spread can you pull at the tables. Even in todays bad BJ market is money to be made. If one plays green chips, he can make around 100K/year. But you have to spread this over many casinos. You have to play all sorts of games (6:5, SF21, Double and 6 decks) and some poker if you're good at. -
Sounds as if p/t can work for me.
BJinNJ -
Nice story but I find it hard to believe. There is not much chance of making $100,000 a year playing at the green chip level, unless of course you're betting dozens of green at a time. At that point you would be better off playing black or more than pushing out towers of green chips. If you want to check out the authenticity of Alex, just go back and look at his past posts. I will say no more, do that and then judge for yourself if you can believe his story.
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Bojack is 100% correct................and AlexD30 is "blowin' smoke out his arse" again (as Bojack said, read Alex's previous posts and make your own decision on whether to believe him or not).
IF, IF, IF a player was very good playing green with today's games/rules, he/she might GROSS $40,000 per year playing full time (say 1500 hrs).........BUT he/she would have to deduct all expenses from that number...........so pick a number for NET based on what you figure for travel, rooms, food, etc. that is not comped.
In other words, don't give up your day job.
Regards.....Grifter -
At the grren chip level your average bet is about $65. If you play 1500 hours per year and have 1.2% or or even only 1.00% edge. How much can you make? My calculator tells me that you make one average bet per hour and that comes to be 90K per 1500 hours. If you can pull 1.2% edge that comes to be $78 per hour or a little over 117K per year.
But, if you are NOT capable to pull $65 average bets with green chips you may as well give up blackjack and try slot machines for a change -
Actually, it's because of my job that I started investigating and
evaluating BJ for part-time income. Every few years, it seems,
I come back to BJ, buy a few books and decide that making money
at BJ is a marginal endeavour. This has been going on for over a
decade(since my USAF days). Now, I'm almost in a position to give
BJ a try, have a bit of fun, and maybe make some comps, too.
My job gives me a long weekend every week, and going to the
casinos for a day or two is certainly possible. If casino trips can
be profitable, all the better.
I'd really like to turn out like Dr. J in Carlson's book, if I can learn
the requisite skills, discipline and cover.
Not sure about AlexD30's credibility, even after looking at his old
posts. It appears he's at least read some BJ books.
Over and out.
BJinNJ:cool: -
Bojack is very true and realistic in his projection. I play Blackjack/Pontoon fulltime and professionally. I recently formed a group and is doing quite well, reaching our daily quota most times and covering back our losses on good days. Playing solo, however, is far different in terms of the projection. Not everyday is Christmas. You will have some very bad days no matter how good you are. My suggestion is to keep the projection real and your profile low. And yes, keep your day job. Goodluck in your venture.
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Credibility?
How about if I tell you guys that I constantly win big in 6:5 single decks all over Vegas? Would you believe me?
The fact is that I really do win on average about $388/hour over the long run in the bad 6:5 BJ according to my records of the past 3 years. Of course, many losers will not believe this because they got bankrupted way before the 6:5 spread on LV Strip. They will tell you that the 6:5 cannot be played profitably. They will tell you that theyve been big winners in Single deck, S17, DAS, D2 with 90% pen. Thats the model they are capable to beat. Since this game is not in existence they practice BJ in theory.
The argument against the 6:5 is that the BJ instead of paying 3:2 is paying only 6:5 or 1.2:1 and thats a big deal for some. They lose because they are losers in the first place.
Go figure, -
400 posts from Alex. Not one with a speck of truth to them. Why do people feel the need to bullshit so much.
Life lesson to you,Alex. If you insist on bullshitting,at least take the time to reread your old posts and be consistant.If you expect us to read your posts,at least have the common courtesy to do the same and stick to one plot per website. -
NYB said:400 posts from Alex. Not one with a speck of truth to them. Why do people feel the need to bullshit so much.
Life lesson to you,Alex. If you insist on bullshitting,at least take the time to reread your old posts and be consistant.If you expect us to read your posts,at least have the common courtesy to do the same and stick to one plot per website.
Hi NYB,
I'm not insisting on bullshitting. I just want to put some life in this forum.
The truth is I play lots of games including the 6:5 and when I find a SF21 I clean up the tray. I also play all the good games left on the LV Strip (DD, S17 or DD H17 LS)
However, new players have to know that you either count and push big action on the table when you have edge or you'll not win in this game.
Go get them -
Well, three years ago I decided to play more BJ and enjoy doing so. I am not attempting to clean out the house when I play rather walk away with an extra hundred or more. My biggest fault is not walking away when I reach that level, but I know that....just like the game. In three years I have made some money but more importantly I watch others and consistantly see people betting very heavy win early and eventually give it all back. Not to say others don't win big....just my experience. Earning $100K a year would seem difficult to me unless you bet very heavy and have a good size bank.
-
mvi222 said:Well, three years ago I decided to play more BJ and enjoy doing so. I am not attempting to clean out the house when I play rather walk away with an extra hundred or more. My biggest fault is not walking away when I reach that level, but I know that....just like the game. In three years I have made some money but more importantly I watch others and consistantly see people betting very heavy win early and eventually give it all back. Not to say others don't win big....just my experience. Earning $100K a year would seem difficult to me unless you bet very heavy and have a good size bank.
Well, I’m not saying that 100K is easy. What I’m saying is that if we talk about a proficient master of the game, he can still make 100K per year in today’s market. The games are not great the way used to be, but you still can make money playing blackjack. The problem is that you have to spread your playing time over multiple casinos all over Vegas and probably other locations.
For example: the 6:5 games are bad according to computer simulations but they can be beat with the correct bet spread. The trick is to have a big average bet when you have edge. Now, this is accomplished by having a big spread. As you start winning, don’t spend the profit. You add the winning to your bank and compound it, as one should, the more you win the bigger unit you play. The annual earning is, uh, way much better than that offered by Wells Fargo Bank …, :-)
Her you have it:
BJstrike version 3.1
Copyright DFTSimuLab, 2002-2007
All Rights Reserved.
License ID # = ******908c51******
License holder: External
C:\Program Files\BJ-Strike\bjstrike_X-3.1.win\bjstrike.exe
Argument file: C:/temp/bjtwork/Games/Single-65/tcl_arg_f.rc
Key type: REL_1
Date: 2007-10-01 - System platform: Windows
RULES AND DEALER ACTIONS:
- Face-up game
- H17 (Dealer hits soft 17).
- DOA (Double on anything).
- Split up to maximum 4 hands
- DAS (Double after split).
- No RSA (Resplit aces). Aces always receive one card only.
- Insurance allowed.
- BJ pays 6:5
- Shuffle points: At round= 7
- Number of cards in shoe= 52 Random shuffle procedure ON
- Number of rounds per hour= 100
===================
BETTING SYSTEMS:
- Bet variation mode:
- Player: 1 Using count series= C1
[-Inf,3]: 25; [4,4]: 100; [5,5]: 125; [6,6]: 150; [7,7]: 175; [8,8]: 200; [9,+Inf]: 250;
====================
Player, Action, Won/Lost, EV, ,STDERR, , win rate
# 1:, 612603725, 5152200.0, 0.841%, 0.0025%, 51.52
====================
BANKROLL ANALYSIS
Original bankroll size= 50000
Player # Minimum bank Round number
1 44267 1411
====================
INSURANCE
Number of insurance situations= 769104 (Rounds= 10000000 )
Player, Ev, # of insurances taken, Amt won
1, 0.4400%, 247828, 2695575.0
====================
ROR (Risk Of Ruin) results based on 'TOT:'
- Current bank= 50000, ROR= 0.682% N0= 38915.47
- Time to double bank: 970.46 hours 97045.92 rounds
-Average bet size per hand played: 61.26
=====================
As you can see just playing with a fixed unit of $25 without compounding you make on average $51/hour and that is about a little over 100K per 2000 hour play. If you compound the unit, your win rate gets up significantly. However, you've got to have a big bank to pull this off. 50K will do the job. -
AlexD30 said:As you can see just playing with a fixed unit of $25 without compounding you make on average $51/hour…
Yeah, all you need is a 1:10 spread at an empty SD game with 73% penetration, DAS and no heat. Piece of cake! *lol*
-Sonny- -
Oh man, I just checked out the threads he's started here. What a pathetic douche.
You're about as useful as used toilet paper. Go die in a fire. -
Sonny said:
Yeah, all you need is a 1:10 spread at an empty SD game with 73% penetration, DAS and no heat. Piece of cake! *lol*
-Sonny-
Well, BJ pays 6:5 games you find all over Vegas. Any time of day and night.
I don't see any problem finding these games. I actually play the 6:5 games a lot with super success. -
AlexD30 said:Well, BJ pays 6:5 games you find all over Vegas. Any time of day and night.
I don't see any problem finding these games. I actually play the 6:5 games a lot with super success.
His point was that finding a Ro7 game is nearly impossible, and then getting away with a 1-10 spread long enough to make that kind of money is even more impossible. -
I'm pretty new to this board (although anything but new to BJ), and like a zillion other gamblers, I too dream of moving to Vegas and turning pro. And if I had a dollar for every hour I've devoted to study, practice, and playing well, you get the picture. Nonetheless, I keep trying, am getting closer, and it could still happen.
I'm going to try to avoid getting into this pissing contest; so to get back to the original poster's questions, it's my semi-humble opinion that staying under the casinos' radar is the absolute least of one's problems when trying to play professionally. There are enough casinos and enough shifts that spreading the action should take care of any potential pitfalls. Winning consistently is the big thing, with "consistently" being the key word. Unless you get overly greedy and twice as stupid, there's plenty of money to win without being discovered. The "problem" is winning.
Anyway, I'd recommend PassedPawn do what I do. Study the game and put in the effort. The worst that will happen is you'll become a better player, have more fun, and probably have a much better chance of winning. Try playing for several days and see where you stand. Do it again and again and do it some more until you're absolutely convinced you can win consistently. Do you remember the old 1970's TV series, Kung Fu, staring David Carradine? To paraphrase Master Po, "When you can snatch the loot from the casino Grasshopper, it will be time for you to go!" T-17 -
stainless steel rat said:His point was that finding a Ro7 game is nearly impossible, and then getting away with a 1-10 spread long enough to make that kind of money is even more impossible.
Well, In Reno and Lake Tahoe I'm getting Ro7-8 and spread like crazy without any heat in the 6:5 game. And have no trouble finding head-on games. In Vegas the table a little crowded during the weekends but great conditions during the week in that bad game.
What to say? - I don't like playing 6:5 but I get away with big spreads. I'm trying to have a big average bet because the edge is very small even with 10:1 betting. If I can get an average of say, $100 and play the 6:5 the pit boss is looking down on me considering me an "IDIOT" but that's OK as long I can get $100 average bets into a 0.85% to 1.0% edge. The 6:5 is getting pay 1.2:1 instead of 1.5:1 for your BJ. Now this can be overcome by the big spread. The thing is that the Ace has less effect of removal value compared to the regular game. So, you have to make that adjustment to your count. Also the betting ramp is way steeper and the advantage comes a little late into the count. So, you wait a little longer before you jump the bets.
Here you have 44,000 H17 6:5 hand dealed hands at home and data entered in Excel
H17 6:5 rounds hands
rounds/hands(dd+spl) 44000 44841
action (IBA) 3070373
average on IBA 68
profit 163395
edge 5.32%
max/min-bet 250/25
$/hour 371
hours 440
w 14974 34.03%
l 18608 42.29%
p 4014 9.12%
bj 2065 4.69%
wd 2603 5.92%
ld 1717 3.90%
avr bet on +4 or more 162
avr bet on +3 or less 25
insurance bets # and $$ 1100 59123
win hands on +4 or more 5682 52.14%
win hands on +3 or less 13960 48.02%
lose hands on +4 or more 5216 -47.86%
lose hands on +3 or less 15109 -51.98%
running count <=+3 31803 72.28%<br />running count >=+4 12197 27.72%
win streak 11
lose streak 13
action on +4 or more 1980625
action on +3 or less 795050
win $$ on +4 or more 1056340
win $$ on +3 or less 404755
lose $$ on +4 or more -885375
lose $$ on +3 or less -412325
edge on +4 or more 8.63%
edge on +3 or less -0.95%
chip value 25
won single 3387113 0.3324
won double 601075 0.0590
lost single 4480511 0.4396
lost double 415924 0.0408
BJ 461680 0.0453
push 844933 0.0829
stdev/1 hand 99 3.950
stdev/100 hands (1hr) 987
stdev/11K 10356
stdev/K2 rounds played 20713
stdev/week (33hr) 5701
stdev/1day (6 hours) 2419 -
the problem most have with your posts is that when I first found this message board a few years back, you were a pure progression player. You claimed that counting didn't work, that the people writing books about counting cards were con artists just selling books, and you continually hyped your "super-progression" and had discussions about it that went on for weeks and months.
Then suddenly, "ta daaaa" you are a seasoned professional card counter.
To say that doesn't add up is an understatement. I'm not a professional player, I'm an amateur. I believe I can practice Hi-Lo as well as anyone around. And I play a significant number of sessions in some years, less in others. I can tell exactly what I have encountered, how I practice, where I have played, where I haven't, how I handle this and that with casinos, and I do it from a perspective of simply being interested in teaching others about blackjack and card counting, since I am a university faculty member by profession and teaching is what I do.
I'm no more nor no less than what I said above. I have played a little "team 21" with family and friends. I've never played professionally. Nor do I intend to. And I won't claim that I have either. I won't support progressions because they are losing systems, and I can't see any justification for losing more than the minimum for recreational (non-counting) players. I'm not going to build their hopes up only to have them dashed by variance, which is a part of counting.
Honesty goes a long way... At least with me, you get what I believe to be the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. And it won't change next week. -
If you want to know the truth, I value substance over style, and I know Im the ace of spades when it comes to substance. Im getting criticism from guys using Hi-Lo with 4:1 spread in red chips and being worried of heat and not being able to make any money in todays games. If you dont count all the cards in the deck and have a big/solid average bet when youve got edge nobodys going to make any money at blackjack except the casinos.
Well, what can I say? -
AlexD30 said:Well, In Reno and Lake Tahoe I'm getting Ro7-8 and spread like crazy without any heat in the 6:5 game.
And you’re saying those games are DA2 DAS? Somehow I doubt it, especially in Reno. That first sim you posted is pretty much worthless since that game doesn’t exist anywhere on the planet.
AlexD30 said:Here you have 44,000 H17 6:5 hand dealed hands at home and data entered in Excel
Wait, wait, let me get this straight…now you’re trying to validate your claims with a 44,000 hand sim? Get real. The results after so few hands are not reliable at all. The standard error on that sim is completely unacceptable. I can give you hundreds of 44,000 hand sims that will show a loss. If you want reliable results try at least 400 million hands. Anything else is just another worthless sim.
Now I’m not saying you’re wrong here. I agree that the 6:5 games can theoretically be beaten by card counting. I just don’t want anybody making decisions based on your faulty advice. Tell people the truth and let them make their own decisions.
-Sonny-
-
Sonny, I appreciate your contribution to BJ. You are the man!
Yes, they have single deck D2, DAS, 6:5 in Reno, Lake Tahoe, Vegas and southern CA. Also they have the Double Deck D2, DAS, 6:5 with 75% pen that can be profitably played regardless of the bad 6:5 rule.
I'm not advocating that the 6:5 is a decent honest rule. I'm not saying that, Sonny.
Now, the 44,000 rounds, span for a period of one year that I dealt to myself. The outcome of each individual hand was entered in Excel with much detail. The result of each hand - win, push or loss was recorded. All blackjacks and double downs or spits were indicated, all the insurance bets were recorded also so they stood up from ordinary hands. The count was recorded and the betting was according to the up-to date count. A 10:1 spread was involved. I usually dealt seven hands between each shuffle. Many months of effort went into this experiment.
If you want to tell me that I need 400,000,000 hands to validate a counting system... etc. I can tell you that's not exactly how BJ works. I'm sure you know that! You also know that we don't need 400,000,000 to see how the bankroll graph line develops. If you have a valid card counting system it will show profit after 40K hands no matter what. Matter of fact, you cannot show me a 44,000 run of blackjack hands where a valid card counting system and a betting of 10:1 were involved that do not result in positive EV. After so many hands if you bet by the count and play basic strategy with IL18 even in the Single Deck, H17, D2, DAS, 6:5 game you will make nice profit.
But just for curiosity: Can you post a simulation of 44K hands of the above game using Hi-Lo while betting 10:1 in which the player lose money? Please do that! – I’m dead curious to see that one.
Sonny, please tell me how to setup a 6:5 single deck game or a SF21 in CVCX. I can setup a regular game but how you make sure it simulate the 6:5 rule using CVCX? - Please do that!
Best Regards to you Sonny, -
AlexD30 said:
RULES AND DEALER ACTIONS:
- Face-up game
- H17 (Dealer hits soft 17).
- DOA (Double on anything).
- Split up to maximum 4 hands
- DAS (Double after split).
- No RSA (Resplit aces). Aces always receive one card only.
- Insurance allowed.
- BJ pays 6:5
- Shuffle points: At round= 7
- Number of cards in shoe= 52 Random shuffle procedure ON
- Number of rounds per hour= 100
===================
BETTING SYSTEMS:
- Bet variation mode:
- Player: 1 Using count series= C1
[-Inf,3]: 25; [4,4]: 100; [5,5]: 125; [6,6]: 150; [7,7]: 175; [8,8]: 200; [9,+Inf]: 250;
====================
Player, Action, Won/Lost, EV, ,STDERR, , win rate
# 1:, 612603725, 5152200.0, 0.841%, 0.0025%, 51.52
====================
Hmmm. I ran the same game with the same bet spread for 400 million rounds on CVData and got an EV of -0.1%. How many rounds did you sim? I also grouped the results by 44,000 hand sessions. I played 5,681 sessions and won 43.3% of them while only winning 56.6%.
AlexD30 said:But just for curiosity: Can you post a simulation of 44K hands of the above game using Hi-Lo while betting 10:1 in which the player lose money? Please do that! – I’m dead curious to see that one.
Unfortunately I have more bad news. I used a SD H17 3:2 game playing heads up with Ro7 penetration and a 1:6 spread (obviously a winner). With a N0 of only 9,400 hands it would seem like 44,000 hands would be enough, but not so. After 9,090 sessions (44,000 hands each) the player still lost 1.5% of them. And that’s the best case scenario! Obviously a playable game like that would be tough to find. In a standard shoe game (6D H17 DAS) playing heads up with a 1:12 spread and 75% penetration the player managed to lose 34% of his 44,000 hand sessions. With a N0 of 260,000 hands it’s no wonder! It would take 2,600 hours just to overcome 1 standard deviation. Even backcounting that game with a 1:12 spread and only playing counts of +1 or higher has a N0 of 30,338 hands. Even a very aggresive player has to play 303 hours before overcoming just 1 SD. To have 95% confidence you would need to play at least 121,351 hands. That's a far cry from the 44,000 hands you suggested. Arnold Snyder wrote a great article about “waiting for the long run” which relates the same ideas:
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/longrun.htm
AlexD30 said:Sonny, please tell me how to setup a 6:5 single deck game or a SF21 in CVCX. I can setup a regular game but how you make sure it simulate the 6:5 rule using CVCX? - Please do that!
I don’t know about CVCX, but in CVData there is a box in the “Payoffs” section that usually says “Blackjack Pays 15:10.” Just change that to 12:10 for a 6:5 game.
-Sonny- -
Fact of the matter, folks, is that even if one counts well and bets reasonably high, the day in and day out grind gets really boring. It's better to work!
-
windbob said:Fact of the matter, folks, is that even if one counts well and bets reasonably high, the day in and day out grind gets really boring. It's better to work!
I don't know about you,but my job never offered me steak dinners and tix to Broadway shows just for putting in a few hours a day.
Forget trying to count well,and learn to count perfectly.maybe it won't be such a grind. -
Sonny said:I don’t know about CVCX, but in CVData there is a box in the “Payoffs” section that usually says “Blackjack Pays 15:10.” Just change that to 12:10 for a 6:5 game.
-Sonny-
Sonny,
Indeed, the CVBJ, CVCX and CVData are top of the line programs. I'm not question the validity of those programs. I honestly believe that Norm did a great job with this set of programs.
Look, the Single deck 6:5 is a garbage game. I know. But I'm winning in live game and getting away with big spreads in 6:5. I know that I would have won even more if the pay would have been 3:2. I know that
I also know the SF21 is a bad game too. But even in Double Deck SF21 I'm making money for long time in Vegas. But if I run those games in CVData I'm making verry little even with a 10:1 spread.
I love this one from www.blackjack-scams.com/html/6_5_blackjack.html
"6:5 Blackjack strategy is the same as the strategy that you should use for any criminal activity. If a casino calls a game Blackjack but in small letters says Blackjack pays 6:5, it is a fraud. You should not play 6:5 Blackjack. In my opinion, you should not play any Blackjack at a casino offering this fraud. You should not gamble at all in such a casino, or stay in its hotel or eat in its restaurants. Why do business with criminals?"
Anyway, Thanks!
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