Stand on 14 or 16 vs 10
  • I have an issue when the dealer has 10. The basic strategy suggest that stand on 17 is the best with an infinite deck. If the dealer does not peek (european), I aggree has the dealer has 77% of not busting. However if the dealer peek (US), than when you make your decision about hit or stand, you know that the dealer does not have an A.

    Therefore, the dealer odd of not busting are reduced from 77% to 70%. Futhermore the EV of a player 16 against a dealer 10 when both player don't bust changes from -0.128 to -0.059.

    Taking all these factor indicates that when a dealer peek, the best play would be to stand on 14 against a dealer 10.

    Am I missing something here? Why would the basic strategy be the same with peek or no peek if the odds are different??
  • Next I'll check player "16" against dealer "A" with peek. The odds should change as the 10,J,Q,K are no longer available since the peek was not a 10.
  • Preliminary result indicates that Stand on 13 is the way to go when the dealer peek and hit on soft 17.

    Ran a test at a casino of a few 100 hands, the expected value were as follow:

    Expected value using standard play -0.51 for Dealer "10" and -0.43 for Dealer "A"
    Expected value using modified play -0.38 for Dealer "10" and -0.09 for Dealer "A"
    Actual value using modified play -0.35 for Dealer "10" and -0.00 for Dealer "A"

    Are these improvement enough to beat the house.... may be not.

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