When to quit
  • I've been reading this board a while. I hear a lot about quitting if you get ahead by, say, half your buy-in or, in some cases, twice your buy-in.
    Well, that's no fun if you get on a roll early and get to that goal 15 minutes into your session.
    Here's what I do (I certainly don't claim to have invented it):
    I buy in for $100 with the understanding I might reach into my pocket for another $100, but usually don't.
    I use a 1X, 1.5X, 2X, 2.5X progression ($10, $15, $20, $25).
    If I get $100 ahead, then the worst I'm going to do is break even. I keep playing, but if I lose $100 (to get back to even) THEN I quit.
    If I get $200 ahead, then the worst I'm going to do is come out $100 ahead because after reaching that level, I'll quit whenver I drop $100 from the chip pile. In fact once I get a $100 I know I'm not going to touch, I color it up black and pocket it.
    There are those glorious nights when the cards just keep coming and coming and I'd hate to think I missed one because I quit after winning a little early.
    I play once or twice a month. It doesn't work all the time, buit I have been on a roll lately (it's going to be ugly when it turns the other way).
  • SH, that's a nice idea.... but as far as your betting progression. Perhaps you should trying use Dahl's so you can SOLIDIFY your winnings instead of increasing it every time? Usually if you can solidify your winnings using something like his you'll even do better, although it's a lil slower.
  • BuGhOu§eMASTER said:
    SH, that's a nice idea.... but as far as your betting progression. Perhaps you should trying use Dahl's so you can SOLIDIFY your winnings instead of increasing it every time? Usually if you can solidify your winnings using something like his you'll even do better, although it's a lil slower.



    Bug. Yeah, I've thought about that,but it just seems like such a longshot to ever get the progression up where it's interesting. The one that really intriqued me was the one that went 2X, 1X, 2X, 2.5X, etc., because with that progression I use, when you get into trouble is when have those win-lose-win-lose-win-lose streaks and you're winning 2X and losing 3X. But I haven't tried it yet. Sticking with my old reliable as long as this streak holds out.
  • How succesful have you been using your 1x 1.5x 2x etc. strategy? How long have you been using it?
  • BuGhOu§eMASTER said:
    How succesful have you been using your 1x 1.5x 2x etc. strategy? How long have you been using it?


    I've been using it about five years I guess and I average 1-2 trips per month. . Lately, it's been very successful, but nothing is fool-proof. In the last 12-14 sessions (including a week on a cruise when I played every day, I think I've had only one or two losing sessions. Of course, there was a streak before that of about 10 straight losing sessions when it didn't matter what I did -- nothing disastrous, but I wasn't winning. Those are the extremes. If I had to guess I'd say I finish ahead about 60 percent of the sessions over the last five years, although I couldn't document it. The good thing is, when I win I tend to win two, three sometimes four hundred and when I lose I only lose one or two hundred.
  • When I go gambling again I'll definitely try your routine SH, or Thomason's and hopefully one or the other will yield more positive results than Dahl's or SLD's...

    Anyway, I was wondering though, back to the subject of this thread... when is the best time to quit? For example, I bring ~$250 with me for usually one nights worth of play for several hours depending on how early I get there, but if I buy-in for say $100 which is how much I usually buy-in, and I'm playing at a $5 or $10 table what is the IDEAL quit point on both sides of the coin? Is this only determinable by the player himself, or is there a good amount both sides that you should follow and not exceed?

    All positive input encouraged!!
  • Bug - I think it all depends on the player. I usually like to play until I'm falling asleep so long as the $$$ holds out. But that's because I live in Maryland and don't get much opportunity to get to the casinos so when I do I make the most of it. I imagine if I was closer and had more opportunity to visit, I would set a win limit of 2 or 3x my buy in. I do set a loss limit of $100 which is the amount I buy in for. That way I still have funds left for the rest of my trip.
  • BJ Fan, so if you quickly lost your $100 buyin you would just not gamble anymore for the duration of your trip?
  • Hey Bug - I just got back form Shreveport. I got there at 7:00 Sat. night and bought in for $500. I did my 007 progression at the $25 level(x,x,2x,2x,3x,3x,4x,4x,and back to x) and locked in $500 on the first shoe! (switch to bug brew)
  • Congrats dude!!! I responded on Bug Braw :)

    RuleZ man!!!
  • Great trip Sid. But I'm curious. With that progression, how often do you figure you get up to the 4X?
  • I tried the 2-3-4-5-5-5 Thomason strategy and got all the way up to the top at least twice, but am unsure if I was supposed to just play it UP TO 3 times only or continuously stay at that level. Now come to think of it I should've only played it 3x than dropped back down to 2 units.

    I'm wondering what's the diff. between an obviously more aggressive 2-3-4-5-5-5 progression, and Dahl's/SLD's
  • BuGhOu§eMASTER said:
    BJ Fan, so if you quickly lost your $100 buyin you would just not gamble anymore for the duration of your trip?


    No way Bug!!! That would mean giving up and I wouldn't do that. When I lose my $100 buy in (which usually takes at least a few hours), I take a break and get some food or take a nap but I don't give up on playing for the rest of the day. One thing about us blackjack fanatics....we're no quitters :wink: :wink: :wink:
  • Hell yeah... tomorrow when I go again I'll probably use a combination of 007's and my newest one... we'll see what's up - but it's all about da PROGRESSION!!!
  • Bug - I agree it IS all about the progression. I have experimented with several and I'm just more comfortable with mine. True you don't get up to 4x that often (maybe once or twice a session) but IN THE LONG RUN I seem to win more and end UP with more $$ with my 007 progression. I know that it's not very scientific but it is what it is---OR IT BE WHAT IT BE!
  • BuGhOu§eMASTER said:
    Perhaps you should trying use Dahl's so you can SOLIDIFY your winnings


    Where can I find info on Dahl's method? Is it similar to "cancellation"?

    I've been mostly successful (on a sim) with cancellation. But I must admit, you folks were right about eventually bottoming out. Running this method on sim this week has been nothing but headaches. I swear, at one point I must have had ten 12's in a row! The system is not infallible, as some of you noted. I see why the casinos don't mind progression players. Having said that, I still intend to try the system, and weather the (inevitable) losses. The good thing about a sim, though, is the restart button. Wouldn't that be great at a table!

    John
  • Go to the old forum archive...about 15 posts down Jedi listed some key points. The Dahl progression as well as other progressions is listed. He also included other "gems" that every BJ player should know :wink: :wink: :wink:

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