Question for Walter Thomason
  • I was using your progression system betting on starluck's(online casino) las vegas downtown 4 deck(reshuffled every hand) early surrender BJ tables and I was wondering how does the ablity to surrender affect the progression betting system and also if you lose four in a row should you quit like you would during a shoe in a land based casino after you lost four hands in a row or does it not matter online?
  • sevenout: I treat surrender as a loss, and revert to the original initial bet in the series. Even though you may have made money by only losing half of a max bet, you still had a net loss on the hand and should revert to the original bet.
    Quit points, in my opinion, have no value when cards are reshuffled after every hand, and I don't recommend the system for on-line play.
  • Out of curiosity, what do you recommend for online play as counting does no good either? Recommend not to play?
  • slimeo: Play for fun or practice, or play to take advantage of on-line sign-up bonuses or promotions, but don't play for "serious" money. I don't think you have any chance of being a long-term winner with on-line play.
  • Walter: ok, understood. So is single unit betting the way to go?
  • slimeo: I'm having a problem answering your question. If I said, "If you try to run across the highway, you'll get hit by a truck." And you said, "So, should I run in front of a red truck or a blue truck?"
    Get my drift? :)
  • Well...statistically it has been shown that a red truck will always carry a .03 edge of being the one to hit you. Of course that changes depending on the number of axles (i.e.: 2, 6 or 4) and whether the particular stretch of road is a 2 or 4 lane highway. And obviously, if you were to stand on the side of the road first, and start counting the number of trucks that pass, you would lower those odds. Also, what time of day is it? Rush hour? That would increase the number of both red and blue trucks (penetration) and significantly alter the outcome.

    By the way, the Department of Motor Vehicles frowns upon counting the trucks, so do this at your own risk.

    Just my .02

  • John: The only truly accurate way to determine if the red truck has the edge is to play the "run in the street" game 600 million times! :wink:
  • Walt - Where are you getting that ludicrous figure of 600 million occurences to establish something? I noticed that in your post on another thread also.........Grif'
  • Grif: Wong used a 600 million hand simulation to justify his conclusions. bjstats used a 500 million hand simulation to justify his conclusions... maybe you're right... maybe 500 million is enough. :D

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