sup bug,

I believe the progression player would often make his winnings on shoes with high card clumping as these situations tend to arise with high card bust discards going straight into the discard pile, or insufficient shuffling.

If you can shuffle track to a certain degree, betting up thru a high card clump would be totally advantageous to the progression player. In a SD/DD game, there is no memory between the last hand of the old deck and the 1st hand of the new deck.

If you bet 2,3,4, and there's a shuffle up, are you going to bet 5 on the 1st hand of the new deck? That is as good as just betting big on any first hand IMO. Wonging a shoe deck for a high count would probably be an excellent time to start progression play. Other than that, mathematicians have proven that progression play will even out to 50/50 in the LR.

On a side note, has anyone played @ the new Cache Creek indian casino near brooks about 1.5 hrs from san francisco? I card count using hi-lo, with I18 mods to basic strat. I was playing at the high-limit tables betting from 50-250 on 2 hands. (i.e. 100-500 per hand)

I had an incredible run of bad luck, but I noticed the dealer using the mechanic's grip and often making scrapping noises with the cards as the cards were being dealt. I made 9 top bets, and even doubled down on a couple of them and I counted only 1 win. I saved 2 on insurance, but nonetheless lost alot where statistics say I should have made. I was suspicious especially on my last top bet as the dealer dealt her own card face down, and took a long time to flip it over. To create suspense perhaps as a cover, but I was really suspicious.

I know the mechanic's grip and the scrapping sounds are possible indications of dealing seconds, but I can't be sure. Nonetheless while I dropped a couple thousand @ the HL tables, I made most of it back by switching between shoe tables on lower limit while still betting high for a total loss of $425.

Has anyone had similar experiences @ Cache Creek? I don't think they're cheating all the time, but the fact that they take longer to deal when I have big bets out on the table still makes me suspicious. I'm trying to put it all behind me as a negative fluctuation and try that place out again sometime. Any advice?

Yes, exactly... only thing I'm thinking about is that since it's Single/Double deck, we'll be winning more than we lose (or losing LESS at it vs 6-8D) but still, they still technically have the HA in their favor unless one implements even MORE advanced techniques like counting or hand interaction... but yeah, I'd like to know what's up for sure, so I'll know either to avoid those or play them when I go to Vegas in <2 months!

You and 1 or 2 other players is best at single or double deck play because
you will see all the cards without much trouble. You may have to play at
4 AM, but so what.

Progressions and single or double deck games, in my view, is just as good
as a shoe with any number of decks. Why? Streaks do not occur because
the sequence of the cards is somehow sacred. Think about it. Why would
you restart your progression after a shuffle, what is the reason for that?
What possible difference could a shuffle make when in every case, in every hand you are facing the unknown? It amounts to one contiguous run
of cards and it makes no difference if you have one shuffle or twenty.
If the dealer gave you the option to shuffle or not or even better let you
do the work, rather than him, what could you produce? What magic would
you use to shuffle up a streak? The idea that a shuffle affects your chance
to win is irrational.

Ray said:

Progressions and single or double deck games, in my view, is just as good
as a shoe with any number of decks. Why? Streaks do not occur because
the sequence of the cards is somehow sacred. Think about it. Why would
you restart your progression after a shuffle, what is the reason for that?

Okay, that is where we disagree, primarily because the author and OWNER of this progression, Mr. Thomason himself says to restart the progression over at the shuffle and NEVER, I repeat NEVER continue on past the shuffle.

The reason for it is to give the cool shoes a chance to get hot, while having a chance to GET a shoe hot. If a shoe has been hella hot before a shuffle and have been incrementally upping your bets, it makes no sense to continue doing so AFTER THE SHUFFLE.

However, I do agree with you about playing 1-2 players max at double deck and single and it can also be added to the SHOE, in order to FULLY MAXIMIZE the chance of hitting the awesome STREAKS.

Not the point. How can you argue with the MAN who invented this progression and in his book clearly states to NOT continue the progression past the shuffle! That's just like disobeying the police and speeding blatantly after you and him have given eye contact!!

In other words, his word is a bit more followed than yours, especially on this matter :)

Thanks though.

Well appreciated Ray, well appreciated. You just were unaware, that's all. It's okay. We are all here to learn anyway right? :)

Walt, while you're here, is your reasoning for restarting the progression along the lines of the the higher expected House Advantage at the start of the shoe? It seems that one could expect a more dynamic game towards the end of the shoe allowing for better progression play.

I've always used 1-2-3-3 across the shuffle. A tie on the 1x or 2x is ignored and the progression continues. Surrender, the same. See the "N&B's Progression" topic for a few other rules I use.

N&B

Walter Thomason wrote:
There's even a sort of reverse pleasure in losing the first bet out of the shoe, when your wager is only a fraction of what it could have been had you carried the progression over from the previous shoe.

From reading that it is more than evident, jm, that he is implying that you SHOULD restart at the beginning of the shoe and since you dont, I'm wondering why you haven't since, if you read his book he specifically states to restart and do NOT carry the progression over.

I was just wondering the effect of doing so on a Double/Single Deck instead of shoe.

I know for a fact that Walter does not recommend his progression for
single deck. I don't know about double deck, but I suspect the same is
true. In both cases, the limited number of hands will not provide a good
streak environment as compared to the shoe.