Progression Math
  • Have been using Walter’s progression, 2,3,4,5 for a few months. It seems to work, I’m up a few $$. Now, want to up the bet, but don’t want to go double to 4,6,8,10. How to do it?? (Will include the $$ loss at the end of each progression run in all the value calculations)
    Using 10, 15, 20, 25, 25 the profits are as follows:
    L -$10, WL -$5, WWL +$5, WWWL +$20, WWWWL +$45
    Note it takes two WWL (+$5) to cover one L (-$10) Ratio of 2W to 1L.
    Now to up the bet, let’s add one $5 chip to each bet.
    Using 15, 20, 25, 30, 30
    L -$15, WL -$5, WWL +$10, WWWL +$30, WWWWL +$60
    Note WL is the same in both examples, a loss of $5, no added risk at this point.
    Plus as the wins runs get longer, the profit goes up faster.
    But now 1.5 WWL ($15) will cover one L ($15). Ratio of 3W to 2L (Better)
    So, the risk has gone down, and the amount won has gone up. Using the initial progression as a base, it seems adding one (or more) chips to each bet lowers the risk and ups the win. :wink:
    Comments??
  • Sage, Ive read your post (5) times and still can't understand what you are doing. I also use Walt's progression and have had great success with it. I am also experimenting with different ways to lock in profits mainly by using a negitive progression after (2) losses. Only doing it on the computer right now but I seem to be having a little luck with it
  • Sage

    I see one flaw in your logic!

    Why not bet 100,105,110,115 - you only lose 5 dollars after the 2nd bet but if you win 2 in a row then lose you are still up 95! You could continue with this logic forever. The risk does go up though, because you are betting more money!

    I have always wondered how Walter came up with this particular progression (by mathematics or just a sign from above) I wonder if he has ever went back through his test and ran it with a different progression. Just curious.
  • My variation on Walters progression is that I use a 2 x 3 level progression, 1 x 3 level winning progression and 1 x 3 level losing progression, only moving up a level to recover loss's in a losing run, then returning to the level 1 winning /losing progression, a large bank roll is required to cover the recovery phase when required, but it works for me :lol:

    My Incremental progression wagering

    Start wagering at 5 units, then proceed with either of the following wagering cycles:

    Winning Cycle Wagering

    Level: 1: 7- 9- 11. *1
    Level :2: 14- 18- 22. *2
    Level :3: 28- 36- 44. *3

    Losing Cycle Wagering

    Level: 1: 10- 20- 40. *4
    Level :2: 20- 40- 60. *5
    Level :3: 40- 80- 160. *6


    *1 Increase wager by 2/5 of original stake / increasing by 2 units ( This would be 2 with a 5 unit stake, 4 with a 10 unit stake and 8 with a 20 unit stake ) when you reach your 4th win, stay at the 4th wager in the cycle, untill a loss occurs, you would then move on to the Level: 1 Losing Cycle.

    *2 When wins occurs when using Level: 2 Losing Cycle start using Level: 2 Winning Cycle from the beginning, till a loss occurs, then move back to Level: 2 Losing Cycle, continue doing this till your bank roll reaches the limit it was before the losing run started, resume back to the Level:1 Winning Cycle.

    *3 When wins occurs when using Level: 3 Losing Cycle start using Level: 3 Winning Cycle, till a loss occurs, then move back to Level: 3 Losing Cycle, continue doing this till your bank roll reaches the limit it was before the losing run started, resume back to the Level:1 Winning Cycle.

    *4 When your bank roll reaches the limit it was at before the losing run started any time during Level 1's Losing Cycle Wagering resume to Winning Cycle Wager Level:1, When there is 4 loss's in a row, revert to the table minimum if playing on the net*, ( if playing at a land based casino, change table or wait for a new shoe ) when a win occurs move on to Level:2 Losing Cycle Wagering.

    *5 When your bank roll reaches the limit it was at before the losing run started any time during Level 2's Losing Cycle Wagering resume to Winning Cycle Wager Level:1, if Level:2 Losing Cycle has been completed with out any wins, move on to Level 3 Losing Cycle Wagering. if 4 loss's in a row occurs during this cycle revert to the table minimum if playing on the net*, ( if playing at a land based casino, change table or wait for a new shoe ) when a win occurs, move on to Level 3 Losing Cycle Wagering.

    *6 When your bank roll reaches the limit it was at before the losing run started any time during Level 3's Winning Wagering cycle resume to Winning Cycle Wager Level:1, if Level:3 has been completed with out any wins, start Level 3 over again till your bank roll reaches the limit it was before the losing run started, then resume to Winning Cycle Wager Level:1 if 4 loss's in a row occurs during this cycle revert to the table minimum if playing on the net*, ( if playing at a land based casino, change table or wait for a new shoe ) when a win occurs go back to the start of Leval 3 Losing Cycle Wagering.

    *Its not good for Microgaming software, but works ok for the rest so far

    The same can be applied to 2 unit stakes:
    Start wagering at 2 units, then proceed with either of the following wagering cycles:

    Winning Cycle Wagering:

    Level: 1: 3- 4- 5. *1B
    Level: 2: 6- 8- 10. *
    Level: 3: 12- 16- 20. *

    Losing Cycle Wagering:

    Level: 1: 4- 8- 16 *
    Level: 2: 8- 16- 32 *
    Level: 3: 16- 32- 64 *

    *1B Increase wager by 1/2 of original stake / increasing by 1 unit ( This would be 1 with a 2 unit stake, 2 with a 4 unit stake and 4 with a 8 unit stake ) when you reach your 4th win, stay at the 4th wager in the cycle, untill a loss occurs, you would then move on to the Level: 1 Losing Cycle.

    * Rest of rules same as for 5 unit wagering above
  • I have been experimenting with a progression loss tactic for a few days with CVBJ.

    Using a 1-2-3-3 progression: lets call it t1,t2,t3, and t4 as the 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th terms of the progression. I suggest that you add 1x to the bet, for each term above t4. That is, t5 is 4x, t6 is 5x, etc.

    If you win t3 AND t4 you extend to t5: a win extends to the next term, a tie repeats the term: a loss restarts the progression at t1.
    If t3 loses or ties in any way, after t4, the next wager is 1x (t1)
    If t3 wins and t4 ties, t4 is repeated until it loses or wins: if t4 loses, the next bet is 1x (t1): if t4 wins go on to t5.

    LOSSES: &%$# happens

    MAXIMUM loss is 12x, either to the maximum bankroll, or the PREVIOUS SEVEN BETS. NOTE: if your last bet is a 6x DD that loses, you quit. Be careful with 4x and 5x losses... eventually, they become the LAST of the 7 previous terms and things change!

    Count the losses of the previous 7 hands (split hands count 1 each).
    Ignore wins at 1x and 2x.
    Count DD losses as double.
    A 3x win cancels a 3x loss, an extended bet loss is covered by the term previous to it (this is usually a -1 condition).

    Do NOT Play if:
    you lost 10x and risk 3x on the next hand
    you lost 11x and risk 2x or 3x on the next hand
    The bankroll meets these conditions

    Starting with 30x, I notice that losses are kept in check for the most part... but that evil 3x DD loss can still hurt. I've noticed that sometimes one encounters a LAST HAND condition regardless of outcome. This happens when the last term backcounting losses is that big loser at the end of the last streak.

    WINNING: %&*$ happens to the house

    If LOSING fails, I triple and quit. If I'm in a streak (t4 or higher), I quit when I lose the last hand.

    I recommend a maximum of 12x bet, and if it wins, the next is 9x, increasing back to 12x.

    When I can do all this without a pencil and paper, I'll let you know. I still need those charts. (and a tip o' the cap to CVBJ for logging)

    N&B

    ps: I'm still making a few mistakes... they're ALL costly in some form. Usually just a 3x bet.
  • jm: Actually, it WAS a sign from above... I was sitting at a blackjack table one night, losing my *ss, and happened to glace up as a bolt of lightning arked across the ceiling. THere was a placard hanging from the bolt that read, "Walter... Use a $10/15/20/25 Positive Progression!" I tried it, and it works quite well :) .
    From a mathematical standpoint, I've compared the system to many other progressions, and it stands up well in terms of risk and volitility, and shows a greater profit or lessor loss when the same hands are played by the player and the dealer -- when the only variation is the betting system employed.
    On the other hand, there's some interesting work being done with progressions that contain both positive and negative betting plans. I recently wrote an introduction to a new book that investigates a positive/negative progression, and the results are promising. I'll let you know when the book is published and how it can be purchased.
  • Walter: If it wasn't a sign from above, how did you come up with this progression? Was it just trial and error - by comparing other systems, or did you have some formula that you came up with?
  • Sage said:
    Using 10, 15, 20, 25, 25 the profits are as follows:
    L -$10, WL -$5, WWL +$5, WWWL +$20, WWWWL +$45
    Note it takes two WWL (+$5) to cover one L (-$10) Ratio of 2W to 1L.

    Now I'm no rocket scientist but this doesn't seem all that great. Say you were to flat bet $10, the results would be thus:
    L -$10, WL $0, WWL +$10, WWWL +$20, WWWWL +$30
    Let us say, just for arguments sake, your first 10 hands actually came out this way, LWLWWLWWWL. Playing your progressive system you would be ahead $10, but with flat betting you would be ahead $20. Even if the next 5 hands were WWWWL, y=with your system you are now at $55 while with flat betting you are at $50. My tiny little mind would think that you would have to see quite a few 4 in a row winning hands to beat flat betting. I'm not talking in a session either, I'm talking in an hour. This of course does not take into account splits and double downs. By the way if I win 10 of the last 15 hands and only walk away with $50 or $55 dollars someone from the casino had better comp me with a weeks stay at the very least.

    Sage said:
    Have been using Walter's progression, 2,3,4,5 for a few months. It seems to work, I'm up a few $$.

    The question is does it work better than flat betting. Have you recorded your win-lost pattern and compared it?

    I'm sure there is much more to this system than what has been presented here, so I, in all likelihood, have no idea what I'm talking about. :D
  • OK lets see, these were the 1st 10 bets: LWLWWLWWWL

    -10
    +20
    -30
    +30 thats +10 when paid: then I'm even when the next 10 is bet

    +10 still even: $20 next bet
    -20 back to even: grab 30
    +30 the bank is even: and theres a 30 bet still on the table
    +30 another win: keep 20 for the bank, add 10 to the bet
    +40 bonus round: add 30 to the bank 10 to the bet
    -50 loser says what?

    lets see... +50 ?

    N&B
  • jm: I initially developed the system through trial and error, using my 5,000 hand sample, then tested it using Hubby's "Blackjack Tracker" sample of over 50,000 manually-dealt hands. If time allowed, I'd try some new research employing combined positive and negative progression systems, since other "inquiring Minds" have sent me material that leads me to believe that they may be more profitable than mine...
  • Walt, I've gotton CVBJ to play mine, albeit with some "dealer warnings". I have to lie about the 4th term, and omit further terms if I add 1 to the bet after winning the 2 bets at 3x. (Re: 1-2-3-3-4-5-6...until a loss then 1-2-3-3) But I CAN'T sim the progression.

    Maybe it will help speed things up a bit.

    N&B

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