Before you start playing, you pretend that you are $100 in the hole and immediately remove one black chip from your buy-in amount. Put the chip in your pocket.
Bet 20% of this down imaginary amount. If you lose you assume you are down $120 and you bet 20% of that. If you win you are theoretically down only $80 and you bet 20% of that.
Any time you come to even on the money you are actually up $100. Now, you remove another black chip and start all over again.
The formula for your total "loss" after ?w? wins and ?l? losses is:
$100 * 1.2^l * 0.8^w.
The longer you play this progression the more likely you are to be a winner!
For instance, after 10,000 trials the chances that you are down in money are way outside of 5 Standard Deviations.
For example: You have W= 46 and L = 54. The house has 8% edge if you will be betting flat. If you bet the way I do, you will have this:
100 * ( 1.2 ^ 54) * ( 0.8 ^ 46)
where:
1.2 ^ 54 = 18,870.67
0.8 ^ 46 = 0.000034845
So, you have 100 * 18870.67 * 0.000034845 = -65.75
You started at ?100 and now you are at ?65.75 units. You just made 34.25 units in 100 hands.
Here you have a run of 250,000 hands of real BJ simulator.
Round 250000 was completed at: 07-09-2004 20:22:40
The seed was 73357.01
Dealer has garnered -21099
Player 1 won 21099 on a handle of 250000 or 0.89054%
Action = 2279855
Average Bet = 9.12
Max Bet = 184
Positive Fluctuation = 23137.5
Negative Fluctuation = -4609.5
Players results have a Standard Deviation of +/-561.24 or 0.22450%
Wins = 111694 or 44.678%
Loss = 121822 or 48.729%
Push = 16484 or 6.593%
Hours = 2500
Units/hour = 8.44
As you can see, If flat bet in this sim I would have probably break even with all the BJs and Doubling Down. Betting the way I do I just made 21099 units in a little over a full time play for a year. Practically I made 8.44 units per hour without using card counting at all.
_________________
Alex
Grifter said:Lets clear the air about this thread, especially for the less experienced members.
Alex, you keep talking above about your calculations, your simulations, and especially your method that is horse puckey and you know it.
What you are claiming as your method is a simple DAlembert that has been around at least two hundred years!
Grifter
tuffy88 said:Alex
Have you actually gone to the casino and played this system in real time? Is there a quit point where you cut losses? One thing I would be afraid of would be long losing streaks. Or many losses intersperced with a few wins. And that is bound to happen some time.
House had won 9 hands and you have won only 6 and the score is even. The casino had a 20% advantage and not making any money from you.
9L vs. 6W is 20% casino edge for the sequence and you didn't lost any money.
tuffy88 said:Alix
I was not asking about alternating wins and losses. It is when you run into the inevitable L,L,L,L,W,L,L,L,W that I am talking about. When (when, not if) that happens I don't see how you can help being wiped out with your system if you do not have a stop loss point. If you have not run into at least one of these Win-Loss sequences in 10000 hands it is mind blowing. Maybe about 20 standard deviations.
Charles
Grifter said:[quote=tuffy88]Alix
I was not asking about alternating wins and losses. It is when you run into the inevitable L,L,L,L,W,L,L,L,W that I am talking about. When (when, not if) that happens I don't see how you can help being wiped out with your system if you do not have a stop loss point. If you have not run into at least one of these Win-Loss sequences in 10000 hands it is mind blowing. Maybe about 20 standard deviations.
Charles
tuffy88 said:I just don't think it is possible to win with any method such as this one. It will work many times, but in the end a long series of mostly losses will wipe one out fast. If it was really that easy thousands would be wiping the casinos out. And that doesen't seem to be happening.
nelson21 said:Is it a variant of the progression techniques you guys are talking about??
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