Alex,

why does it work better on baccarat and why were u playing both player and banker??

thanks

AlexD30 said:

max bet: $55
max hole: -$275
max losing streak: 13
next bet: 20%

Alex - Is this yet another "bogus" (aka fraudulent) post?

Playing your method as you defined it, how can you have a maximum bet of $55 and a losing streak of thirteen?

By my math......If you lose thirteen in a row, your next bet will be $215, not $55, and you will be down $975, not $275.

Please explain the discrepency.

Grifter

Grifter said:

[quote=AlexD30]max bet: $55
max hole: -$275
max losing streak: 13
next bet: 20%

Alex - Is this yet another "bogus" (aka fraudulent) post?

Playing your method as you defined it, how can you have a maximum bet of $55 and a losing streak of thirteen?

By my math......If you lose thirteen in a row, your next bet will be $215, not $55, and you will be down $975, not $275.

Please explain the discrepency.

Grifter[/quote]
Grifter, You really have disappointed me this time.
I will not go in any more details of how to set the self adjusting betting mechanism but for clarification of 13 losing streak here you have the house edge to be 12.5% and I pull it to even.
Playing BJ at the $5 minimum bet. Never betting zero or less then table minimum.



Start at -25 and Next bet is 20% of the hole
outcome, bet, bet_result, runing_bank
l 5 -5 -30
l 6 -6 -36
l 8 -8 -44
l 9 -9 -52
l 11 -11 -63
l 13 -13 -76
l 15 -15 -91
l 18 -18 -109
l 22 -22 -131
l 27 -27 -158
l 33 -33 -191
l 38 -38 -229
l 46 -46 -275
w 55 55 -220
w 44 44 -176
w 35 35 -141
w 28 28 -113
l 23 -23 -135
w 27 27 -108
w 22 22 -87
w 17 17 -69
w 14 14 -55
w 11 11 -44
w 9 9 -35
l 7 -7 -43
w 9 9 -34
l 7 -7 -41
w 8 8 -33
w 5 5 -28
l 6 -6 -33
l 7 -7 -40
w 8 8 -32
w 7 7 -25


w 15 62.50%
l 18 75.00%
house edge 12.50%
action 598
profit 0.00
my edge 0.00%

House got 12.5% but I did not lost anything.

PS: just for you Grifter: Run a simulation of ONE million or more hands for a game like 2D, H17, DAS, Set the bankroll from the start to be -$1000. Bet 1.5% of the hole anytime the bankroll is negative and bet $1 when and if your bank gets into positive during the simulation. At the end of the sim, add $1000 back to your bankroll.

Please post the stats and the final result. If you lose during the sim I will let you call me any name. I will let you call me that I'm the biggest fuck con on earth. I will even kiss your ass in public. But you have to be honest and post the real stats results. :!: I can guarantee you that you ALWAYS will make money. Always :!: Play basic at all time.

I'm telling you why you win. Because in a million rounds if you play perfect basic flat betting you will lose at a rate of about -0.5%. The reserch shows that in order to offset the game one has to bet 2xhouse_edge from the hole. If you bet anything above 1% from the hole you will break even or make money. It depends how much above 2xhouse_edge from the hole you bet.

If the game has a -0.6% against you for flat betting and if you bet 1.5% from the hole you will break even. If you bet 2% of the hole you will make some $ over one million or even over 10 millions hands.

In real life, you assume that the house will have in the sort run a 10% or 12% edge over you. Bet double that percentage from your hole. You will allways make money this way.

If you don't post the results then I will post the final stats and the program for people to see how is done. And, if you are wrong and I'm right then I want you to appologize on this board. :twisted:

Ray said:

Alex, when you were at the 275 level in BJ(hole), would you have, at
some point above 275, taken a loss and return to 100? Just one of the
possibilities that I'm thinking about.

Ray

Ray,
I was playing downtown at $5 minimum. So, my starting hole was -25 and betting 20% of the hole at all times until I reached again table minimum and reset the hole to -$25 again.

#1) The bets are: 5,6,7.5, 9,11,13,15,18,22,27,33,38,46,55,66,80,96
You don't even have to reset the hole. Just play normal BJ or whatever and go up and down the scale. When you lose a hand you advance to the next bet up the scale when you win a hand you come down one step until you reach the table minimum again. Every time you are back to table minimum you made money for the run. This is the equivalent of having a hole set at –25 from the start, betting 20% of that hole, and set it again at –25 when you reach table minimum. To avoid confusion, just play the normal way you usually do but bet the way I told you. That schedule covers for a assumed house edge of 10%. Anytime the house has less then 10%, you are making big money.

Off course you can assume that the house could have a 16.5% over you and in that situation you would have to use a different betting schedule. The one that bets 33% of the hole.

#2) For $5 minimum you would bet: 8.5, 11.5, 15, 20, 26.5, 36, 48, 64, 85, 114, 152, 202, 270, 360. This will make you a ton of money as long as the house edge doesn’t go over 16.5% against you.

Have you played ever a BJ session when you lost more then 16.5% of the total action while flat betting :?: Like losing 58.25% and winning 41.75% This includes the double downs and all the BJ, like a double down is +2 or –2 and a single BJ is 1.5
I personally never in my life have encountered a playing weekend of over 1000 hands when the house had a 16.5% edge over me.

I usually use the $5 minimum and assume a 10% edge against me at all times. This scheme is good at BJ for about $50 per hour profit with a $20 to $25 average bet.

The #2 is good for about $80 per hour profit but require more action with an average bet of about $40.

If you play in a game that comes out to be 49W/51L that is 2% against you but you assumed in the beginning that could be 10% or 16.5% against and you bet accordingly, will make a killing in that game.

Always!

PS: Never take a loss. Go up and down the scale and when you reach table minimum again you are in PROFIT 100%

Double on the first two cards? What is that? You only EVER can double on the first two, any game you play. Am I missing something?

Also you cant double after a split if you happend to get a good 2nd card

Nickels_n_Bullets said:

Alex, a legit question.... about how many hands did you split and/or double... and is the # of hands shown including the splits and/or doubles?

Yes, the double counts as +2 if you win or -2 if you lose. The BJ counts as 1.5 always. The split counts as +2 if you win both or -2 if you lose them both, or 0 if you win one and lose the other, or -1 if you lose one and push the second one or +1 is you win one and push the other.

Plus you add up all of the single wins and single losses. Together you should come close to the house edge for flat betting over the long run. Now, during short run the house can get you between +/- 5% like 47.5W vs. 52.5L or sometimes like +/- 10% with rare spectacular outcomes of +/- 16.5%

In very few instances over the long run you will see 3 standard deviations related to a single hour of play. That would be something like +/- 33% but never had the extravagance to be part of that ever in my entire BJ career. The most I ever encountered in real time play was probably +/–15% for a short period of time. Most of time the edge fluctuates back and forth around +/- 5% and over the long run it stabilize itself to about 0.50% for the house.

That house edge is related to the number of winning or losing bets.
If you flat bet you will LOSE :!:

Nickels_n_Bullets said:

non-sequitur response... I was asking if you split and or doubled during your trip and about how many times did that happen. For all the runs I see posted there is NEVER a split or DD outcome.

Here are the BJ stats:

hours: 23
hands: 1840
profit: $1080
$/hour: $46.96
action: $36800
$_edge: 2.93%
unit: $5
avrg bet: $20
max bet: $55
max hole: -$275
max losing streak: 13
next bet: 20%

Well, in real live play you cannot keep track of the number of splits or doubling. Only the hours, profit and based on the average bet you can figure the total action. From there you get your return in percentage. You can also remember the deepest hole and the max bet during the trip.

But how many times you split or double down is almost impossible to approximate. If I won money I suspect that I got about the normal rate of doubles and BJs per hour.

"But how many times you split or double down is almost impossible to approximate. If I won money I suspect that I got about the normal rate of doubles and BJs per hour."

And how often is that using YOUR system? I must presume you have simulated it , and there is an answer based upon those sims. I know what text-book Basic Strategy indicates, but after reading some of the persuasive prose with your name on it, I can tell you don't play text-book Basic, and Basic Strategy expectations are NOT correct for your game.

Alex

I don't understand why you can't keep track of splits and doubles, you seem to be able to keep track of all the following:

hours played
hands played
action (total money bet)
Min. bet
Max. bet
Avg. bet
Max. Hole
Max losing streak
while the whole time figuring out what 20% of your bet is

This already seems like a pretty lengthy list to me! How in the world do you keep track of every hand played? Do you play so many hands then quit and go right it down somewhere and then sit down again? I usually just keep track of how many hours I played and then estimate about how many hands I might have played!

Also, it seems that you would have to play with a bunch of one dollar chips when betting with your method, this seems like it would bring alot of attention when you start your bet at $20, do you tell the dealer to give you a boatload of ones?

I don't think anyone on this board cares if you play your system, I think people like Grifter though are trying to protect the newbies from thinking your method is actually a good one. Good job Grif, keep em' honest for us!

What are your plays for 6-6 vs. 2 or 3, and 9-9 vs. 2, I don't think those are played Basic either, since you don't double on A2 thru A5. I figure theres a time to surrender 8-8 vs. 10-value from your previous posts. I'll also guess that you don't split 4's against 5 or 6. If most or all of these are correctly presumed, there might be some creedence in what you're doing.

AlexD30 said:

Grifter,
Wow! .., I've got it :!:
That's fine Grifter, There is no point arguing with you.

Best Regards

All Grif is asking you to do is explain the discrepancies and to run a real sim yourself. Not all that unreasonable, IMO.

If your betting system is really all you believe it is, you should stop posting about it here and write a book. YOu'd make millions.

KY121 said:

Alex,

i cant run a sim of your program b/c mine is not that in depth but i just ran 25 hands and i reached a max bet of 64 twice.

i do not see how you can play for 23 hours and reach a max of only 50

You did not understand how is done.

Nickels_n_Bullets said:

What are your plays for 6-6 vs. 2 or 3, and 9-9 vs. 2, I don't think those are played Basic either, since you don't double on A2 thru A5. I figure theres a time to surrender 8-8 vs. 10-value from your previous posts. I'll also guess that you don't split 4's against 5 or 6. If most or all of these are correctly presumed, there might be some creedence in what you're doing.

Well, 6-6 vs. 2 or 3 I never split. 9-9 vs. 2 or 3 the count has got to be very strong for me to split. 9 vs. 2 or 3 is a double only on strong counts.
Split 4-4 vs. 5 or 6 only if double after split and the count has got to be on positive side. The 8-8 vs. T is surrender.

Alex... that is what I was figuring. I've been playing CVBJ with a progression, and found some rather unusual results. When I tried it with 2 "average" players using basic, I keep getting killed. They essentially do not DD and rarely split A's & 8's. No other pairs arae split, and they stand on Soft 17. They have one quirk, that when receiving a small card and Ace for the hand. In this situation if a 9 or 10-value is drawn, they hit again REGARDLESS of the dealer's up-card. Since their play is so "bad" I decided to use the 'close quarters' decisions from some 40 years ago to "acid-test" the progression. Misery loving bad company, I figured to lose my shirt out of a shoe.... NOT !

These plays are:
HIT 44v5,6 66v2 11v10 10v9 9v3 A6v3 A5v4 A4v4 A2v5 2&10v3
STAND A7v3 99v2 66v3 12v3 (except 2&10) A7v7 3-card 16v10
SURRENDER 16v9,10,A 15v10 (include 7&8) and 88v10 if betting 3+ in the progression
TAKE INS. for A10 if betting 4x or more
OPTION to bet a surrendered 4x (2x) bet or more as an 'en prison' bet

My comparison indicates I'm making 4.5% to 5% from a shoe, and 1.7% to 2% from a CSM for the CQ strategy. USING BASIC, -0.5% and -6%, and its UGLY. Note the large losses associated with a CSM shuffle every round. Grifter has experience large losses using basic also with this progression. Why the close quarters strategy works is beyond me. But after reading your posts and answering my questions of late, I see you have results similar to this simulation. I will be running simulations of heads-up for both CQ and BS. I have to manually run these as the game, so the few thousand hands needed for each takes a while.

Its not all that great a statement to make as only about 3500 hands of each simulation have been run, thats not a long-run by any stretch. But I'm nearly floored by the abstractness of the two strategies. One's a definate winner the other struggles to lose.