KY121 said:ok, you must have lied about your 23 hour trip and your 10,000 other hands b/c i played today 6 deck, DAS, S17, $5 table for 1 hour and reached a $96 once and had to bet the $80 bet several times. I played by the book for the table i was at.
i actually wrote down your progression so you cant say i did it wrong.
these are the #s i used that i took directly from one of your posts
5,6,7.5, 9,11,13,15,18,22,27,33,38,46,55,66,80,96
i did the EXACT bets b/c the dealer even commented several times when i had BJ's on the $33 and $66
when i lost i went up and when i won i went down. i never reached $5 once i had been up to the $96 bet.
Please explain why i EASILY reached a very high bet after only an hour yet you can play for 23 hours and only get up to $55
KY121 said:ok, i only reduced my bet by 1 on a BJ. but that only means that my bets would have been one less than what they were. so say 80 instead of 96
KY121 said:Alex,
I just find it strange that i only played for an hour and i reached a bet size that you have never reached before. also, the problem i have with the system or any progression is that you have a chance of losing a LOT more $$ than the chance of winning $$.
also, if you win the 1st 5 hands in the progression i showed above do you still move up to $6 after 1 loss or do u move up after 5 loses??
Mike said:You guys are scaring me :?: :shock: :?:
No wonder the dealers get cranky :D
AlexD30 said:Well, in real live game I may hedge a little to make dealers life a little easy. I usually round up, like if 33% of the hole comes to be 37.5 then I bet 38. That is not at all complicated, The hole/3 rounded UP is the next bet if 33% is applied over the game.
Grifter said:[quote=AlexD30]Well, in real live game I may hedge a little to make dealers life a little easy. I usually round up, like if 33% of the hole comes to be 37.5 then I bet 38. That is not at all complicated, The hole/3 rounded UP is the next bet if 33% is applied over the game.
KY121 said:Alex, why have you never responded to grifters post about his sim of your system??
Ray said:Example of rounding to the nearest $5:
Hole is $80 @30%
L 24-104.....L 25-105
W31-73......W30-75
L 22-95.......L 25-100
L 29-124.....L 30-130
W37-87......W40-90
L 26-113.....L 25-113
W34-79......W35-80
L 24-103.....L 25-105
W31-72......W30-75
L 22-94.......L 20-95
W28-66......W30-65
Win 34.........Win 35
Non rounded.....Rounded to the nearest $5
This method may be effective as a move toward simplification...........
Notice that in most cases the numbers are close and amount to a good
average bet.
Ray
KY121 said:Alex,
Remember i am the only person so far that has had the faith in your system to try it in real play. i just feel that you have misled us when you say that you dont reach high $ bets very often.
Unlike most of the people here i have the time and money to play with different systems and strategies so i will try your system again tomorrow if you will outline exactly what i should do i will do it. i will play the 6 deck, s17, das, $5 table. and i will have a bankroll of $4000 for the session.
Grifter said:At 8:30 this morning you said this: Well, in real live game I may hedge a little to make dealers life a little easy. I usually round up, like if 33% of the hole comes to be 37.5 then I bet 38.
Then at 12:30 you said this: Yes I agree with you 100%. In real games I do roundup to the nearest 5.
Alex - And you wonder why the many of us think you are lying about your real play???.....In four hours time you can't even remember how you supposedly play for real??......Come on, level with us. Have you played any hands in real play.
Grifter
p.s.....Why do keep insisting I run a sim of this debacle?? Repeating myself, I am not questioning your sims. I am questioning whether you are telling the truth about your supposed real play!
Grifter said:1. This system is an D'Alembert derivitive.....It has been through "discovery" for about two hundred years now.
2. "More Objective" and "Professional"? - Excuse me, but that rather difficult to achieve when you can't believe what you are being told and read.
Grifter said:HOGWASH?.......Not hardly, Alex.....I, and another poster, have asked you to respond about your real play......Here it is for you again, and this is the third time!......Stop the "flim-flam" and "shuckin' and jivin' and just answer US.
I posted an open challange to you last week which you totally sidestepped, so here it is again:
No one said all of your data was bogus (a.k.a.-fraudulent). What I took exception to (and still do) and inferred might be bogus is your post in which you stated you had played 10,000 hands of your method in real play and your maximum bet was $100, and that had only happened once.
Without even testing any hands, common sense and experience will tell you this is almost impossible with your DAlembert derivative, but I tested 80+ shoes for you anyway (and that is hardly taking the easy way out).
In just those 1,300+ hands, I exceeded a $100 bet ten times!!!.......and reached a maximum bet of $630 (and down $3,150) in one session; AND reached a maximum bet of $1,600 (and down $8,100) in the worst session.
Based on those test hands (using one of your own resources) one can only come to the following conclusions about your post.
1. The results you posted are bogus (a.k.a. fraudulent) ..or,
2. You havent actually played 10,000 hands in real play, .or,
3. I am full of ..beans. And if that is the case, you show me 10,000 consecutive hands of real play or hand dealt testing where you only reach a maximum bet of $100 one time; and I will immediately post an apology to you on this board!
Show me those 10,000 consecutive hands of real play (using the starting bet of $20 that you were promoting last week...that too has apparently changed), and you will get your apology if I am wrong.
KY121 said:Alex,
2 questions
1. how do you use this system in craps??
2. i thought you originally said that 20% is the magic # for betting the house. but now you are saying it can be 33% as well. why is this???
please answer both questions because i love to play craps and i would defin have a much better time doing that if it is possible
Grifter said:Sorry folks - I give up - Alex just "sidestepped' me again, so obviously he is not, or can not, back up his claims about his real play, especially the amount we are going to go in the hole with his method......Someone else can try if they want.
I'll run some sims with real hands dealt by a professional dealer to see what kind of risk we are really looking at.....Can probably have them by Sunday.
...Grifter
p.s.....Ironic isn't it? I'm backed into doing some sims like Alex wanted, but it's only because I want the true answers for myself and you.
Ray said:KY121- In support of your claim take a look at this simple sequence.
How many times, on a new shoe, have I seen this type of sequence.
The answer is plenty.
Hole is 100 @ 30 %
L 30 130
L 39 169
L 51 220
L 66 286
W86 200
L 60 260
W78 182
L 55 237
L 71 308
L 92 400
Next bet = 120
As the bumper sticker says......SH*T HAPPENS and it can occur in minutes,
not hours. I suspect that what happened in your case was more like: win one lose three,win one lose three, win one lose two, etc. A slow but
constant build toward 96........Not uncommon at all.
Ray
Ray said:Alex- You can't factor out "bad luck". It's here to stay. You could have a
30 percent advantage and still lose. Or a +4 with four hands remaining
and lose all four. That's why no system ever invented will win everytime.
That is not saying your system works or don't....it's just facts.
Ray
LeonShuffle said:I already posted this in one of the many other threads about it. I took 8 decks and removed 2 reds from each one, then bet on red. I started with a $100 hole and bet 20% of the hole at all times rounded to the nearest 5. After about 200 cards, I was so far in debt and betting so much that it wasn't worth it anymore.
LeonShuffle said:Well of course I would have come out of it by the end of the 8 decks because it has to reach it's conclusion. There is no conclusion in blackjack and if I had the same win/loss percentage in blackjack after 200 hands, I would have been DEEP in a hole and betting A LOT to try to get out of it.
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