An Unusual Strategy
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Lets play Blackjack without DoubleDowns, Splits, Surrenders or Insurance. The shoe is 6 decks, and the dealer stands on Soft 17. All other rules are meaningless. Bet 1 chip every round.
No matter what first 2 cards you receive, you will hit hard 14 and stand on hard 15. You do this regardless of the dealer's exposed card.
Example 1: you have 77, and the dealer shows a 6. You HIT because you have 14.
Example 2: removed... see next post
The odds are 7/6 that a 14 will not bust, and you are paid even money, so the odds are in your favor to HIT. When you have Hard 15, the odds are 7/6 that you will break, so you STAND.
When you get Blackjack, you are paid 3/2 for that nice hand.
Here's what happens:
WIN =42.4%
LOSE=49.4%
TIE =8.2%
Ignoring ties:
WIN =46.2%
LOSE=53.8%
You will get Blackjack once in 21 hands on the average that pays 3/2.
The house has a 4.7% edge. -
After further review... Stand on any Soft 19 or 20. Only hit soft 18 when the dealer shows a 9, 10 or Ace. The simulation above and here presumes a stand on soft 21.
WIN = 42.67%
LOSE= 48.96%
TIE = 8.37%
ignoring the ties:
WIN = 46.56%
LOSE= 53.44%
Blackjack=4.75% (1 in 21)
House Advantage for this corrected method is 4.03%
--> Update: Notice that the Win/Lose percentages are essentially the same as Blackjack Basic Strategy. Yet, the house has 12 times the given 0.33% advantage according to Blackjack Basic Strategy. -
how many hands is that??
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Each one is 500,000,000 rounds heads up against the dealer with a flat bet.
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As a further refinement to the unusual strategy... one can surmise that the dealer will bust too often showing a 5 or 6 up. The dealer must hit any 15 or 16. Since no hand of ours 11 or less will bust by drawing, the strategy does not change for those hands. In the case of having 12, 13, or 14, we can bust by drawing the higher values of cards. By trying not to bust, we surmise that we can shift the burden of failure to the dealer with a 5 or 6 up. Figuring the dealer has 15 or 16, we know the odds are better to break drawing 1 card. So we stand with 12, 13 or 14 when the dealer has a 5 or 6 up.
Here are the results of this 2nd "improvement":
WIN = 43.04%
LOSE= 48.83%
TIE = 8.17%
ignoring the ties:
WIN = 46.85%
LOSE= 53.15%
Blackjack remains 4.75% (1 in 21)
The House now has a 3.53% Advantage.
Notice that our winning percentage is better than in Blackjack Basic Strategy, yet the House edge is 10 times greater. -
Here's a chart for the play decisions
www.ace-five.com/unusual.gif -
Do not use basic strategy with my system because you may slide into abyss. You have to use the strategy that maximize your chance to win hands and not the one that maximize the EV for a flat bettor. Im not looking to make an extra dime here and there like basic strategy does. For myself the EV isn't of primary importance, my objective is to maximize the probability of reaching a fixed goal like coming out from the imaginary hole.
Now, the house has the advantage over a flat bettor because even bets serve to seal his doom in a setup where the W/L is an uneven number as always.
The optimal approach to use is to offset the value of a bet in relationship with win/loss percentage. The idea, that my system is a progressive method is worthless and your understanding about my system is a myth. You obviously dont know how to play my system. My method has a tremendous and dramatic impact on the very core of BJ. My betting maximize my opponent's risk and gives me the best shot at reaching the goal of offsetting the win/loss percentage. That is the key.
The house needs 17% to break even, anything less, they lose.
They always lose and I always win. -
Alex- Hay Alex.....If I told you that I have solved the abyss problem,
bet optimization problem and as a result the BR calc. problem. How
much can we sell the system for? I'm serious................ -
Ray said:Alex- Hay Alex.....If I told you that I have solved the abyss problem,
bet optimization problem and as a result the BR calc. problem. How
much can we sell the system for? I'm serious................
Ray, If you say that you are serious, I tend to believe you because Im a straight shooter too. -
Nickels_n_Bullets said:Here's a chart for the play decisions
www.ace-five.com/unusual.gif
I like that chart!
:roll: -
Alex- About the only thing that my algorithm has in common with yours
is the hole concept. But to each his own. Testing is a matter of simple
sets. What most don't realize is that by using some very simple set
configurations I can accomplish what would take millions of hands to do.
With your system your going to win some and lose some. If your the type
of individual that can deal with the uncertain BR est. and the high bet
risk, as well as a less than perfect bet optimization, then you will be on
the winning side most of the time.
Ray -
Ray said:Alex- About the only thing that my algorithm has in common with yours
is the hole concept. But to each his own. Testing is a matter of simple
sets. What most don't realize is that by using some very simple set
configurations I can accomplish what would take millions of hands to do.
With your system your going to win some and lose some. If your the type
of individual that can deal with the uncertain BR est. and the high bet
risk, as well as a less than perfect bet optimization, then you will be on
the winning side most of the time.
Ray
Ray,
Im glad for you. Now, is your algorithm a winner? Are you making money with less fluctuations. Well, my betting optimization practically is nonexistent in the sense that I want to make sure that even if casino get 17% it cannot beat me and I still make money.
But I readjust during playing real money to correlate my betting percentage to how fast Im sliding down the hole and the more I lose the less percentage I bet, trying to somehow slow the free fall. It seems to me that it helps a little but on the other hand it takes me longer to recover.
Ray, I can handle big action without any problems. I am not sentimentally attached to any bet whatsoever, and the bankroll is not a problem with me. Couple weeks ago I was playing at $5 table with 33% and -$25 starting hole having first bet $10. After about 15 minutes I was betting black chips because during that time I slided into $300 abyss. It took me a couple choppy hands and a wining one at the end to come out. During this time I was keep looking at the sign that posts the table limits and saw that it was only $300 max. So I figure if I ever reach that bet I will have to move to another table. I was even looking around to see where is a higher limit table around. But since that time nothing spectacular has happen.
That was funny, because I saw fear on peoples faces when was my time to play. Everybody was so nervous. They cheered for me, but still, some guy was asking me if is OK if hes going to hit his 15 vs. 8 and since I was ready to double down on 11, the poor guy didnt want to take the ten out from the shoe. .., LOL! I say, I dont care what you are going to do. Makes no difference to me. Just play your hand and be cool about!
This was a southern CA casino where locals and plopies are the clients most of the time.
So, some action is going to come along, I know that! - Im just curios if your algorithm can and how it handles the real holes.
I still like the 33% with setup hole at -$25.
Best Regards,
PS: Write me a PM about :roll: -
Alex- You've got to understand that most players can't cope with what
we are talking about. Maybe 3-5% and there in lies the problem. What
may be a practical application for you or I does not apply to the gen
public/player. Most go to the casino with one SD, maybe two and without
some reasonable ave bet that is dependable they have little chance.
Ray -
An update to the Unusual strategy...
1) Its well-known that for the hands Hard 12 to 14, against a dealer's 2,3,4 that the only successful plays are to hit 12 when the dealer's up-card is a 2 or 3. The strategy is changed to reflect this.
The house edge is now 3.14%. Guess what... the player wins 43.4% Loses 48.8% and ties 7.8% Thats 47.07/52.93 not counting ties.
2) As we all know, surrender is the correct play for several hands. If offered surrender, take it, because its the best play other than Hit/Stand. Surrender normally, 15 vs. 10, and 16 vs. 9, X, A (X= 10,J,Q,K) Since we don't split 8's, surrender 88 as you would any other 16.
The house edge drops to 2.92%
2a) Now for the mind-bender. The strategy states that we don't hit 15 or 16 because the odds are against us. When the option to hit any 15 or 16 is removed, Surrender becomes the next best choice, given that we stand. This being the case, one would surrender any Hard 15 or 16 when the dealer's up card is 8,9,X, or Ace. This includes 8-8.
The House edge drops a little bit MORE to 2.81% NOTE: Win = 41.9% Lose = 50.3% Tie 7.8% Surrender counts as a loss.
So if you play 12-14 correctly as in Normal Blackjack, the house will have a 3.14% edge.
If you are allowed to surrender, you surrender any 15 or 16 when the dealer shows 8,9,X,A since you do not hit 15 or 16. The house will have a 2.81% Advantage. BTW, you will surrender 1 in 15 hands as opposed to Normal Blackjack's 1 in 23.
So thats basically it for Blackjack as a coin-flip, and taking advantage of surrender, if offered. There is a page for this on-site. -
Alex, you'll like the NEW one better! and the page.
Remember, that chart belongs to me! don't steal! -
Nickels_n_Bullets said:Alex, you'll like the NEW one better! and the page.
Hi N&B,
What is the link of that page? -
Press the www at the bottom of this post, and the site appears, You'll see it right away.
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so wouldnt this be the ULTIMATE BS for Alex to use????
b/c it minimizes the W/L % -
KY121 said:so wouldnt this be the ULTIMATE BS for Alex to use????
b/c it minimizes the W/L %
No! that's not my strategy -
KY121... Almost... remember the initial caveat of the rules... that you don't hit 15 or 16 due to the odds of surviving the hit to be less than 50/50 for a payment of even $. However hiting 15 against 8,9,Ace is better than standing or surrender, same with 16 against an 8. BUT you are not paid extra for taking the bad risk. That is one of the reasons why the house edge is near 3% give or take surrender.
By the way if you go to www.wizardofodds.com/ you will find a host of other card games offered in a casino with the same or WORSE odds. Notably Caribbean Stud. Its worth a peek. -
Have you run a scenario on the above deviations???
what is the win/loss ratio?? -
For the Unusual Strategy...
No Surrender W = 43.4% L = 48.8%
Surrender W = 41.9% L = 50.3% (surrender counts as a loss)
Basic Surr. add 88 vs. 10 W = 42.35% L = 49.85%
The balance to 100% are ties. The House Advantage is 3.14%, 2.82%, and 2.91% respectively.
When you play Basic Strategy...
Surrender W = 42.65% L = 49.05%
No Surr. W = 43.55% L = 47.90%
The balance to 100% are ties. The House Advantage is 0.315% and 0.38% respectively. Note the win% for basic is higher than unusual when surrender is not allowed... this due to hitting 15&16.
House Advantage is based upon Total Bet Amount, that includes DD's and splits. -
NnB,
thanks but i was wondering if you have ran your unusual strategy with a few of the best DDs and splits added in.. i would be interested to see that. -
Nope, I haven't.... it wouldn't be the unusual "coin-flip" strategy if one splits or DD's.
But one could surmise that DD, and/or split against a 5 or 6 up-card might be the best. Splitting 7's, 8's, 9's, and Aces against 4, 5,or 6.... -
exactly what i was thinking..
is there anyway you can run it with those additions??
thanks for the help. -
I could, but I risk copyright infringement. The coin-flip strategy has probably been done already as it is, and I'm NOT going to make a system out of it let alone make claims to its worthiness. As always, credit where credit is due... it wouldn't surprise me to find that IBM first published the coin-flip version of Blackjack.
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