Progressions, good or bad
  • Hello all,
    I am a card counter but I like to look at all betting strategies. On one hand I like Progression betting, I see streaks all the time but I stick to my counting. On the other hand I can see where a couple win,lose,win,lose streaks can take back any winnings progression betting gets you. I should have bookmarked it but I saw a website that compared progression with bs and counting via computer simulation and it resulted progression losing more because of win,lose,win,lose. I apologize, I will try and find that site again.
    I guess it comes down to luck. BTW, last time I was in vegas, I saw this guy using Martingale system at blackjack, started at $10 bet, ended up at a $1000 bet and walked away crying. I wonder what his name was? hmmmm.
  • Billy Bob: Most experts concur that progressions yeild exactly the same results as flat betting in the long run, based upon computer simulations. I once had a running discussion (arguement?) with a guy whose simulation proved that my positive progressive system lost more than flat betting. I questioned the validity of his simulation program, and proved that it was faulty. End of discussion. If you totally trust the accuracy of blackjack simulations and feel that they accurately predict live play, then progressions aren't for you.
  • Some nights progressions win more than flat betting...Some nights
    flat bettors win the race. Some nights card counters lose, other nights
    they win.

    WONDERFULL GAME AIN'T IT....
  • Hey, thanks for the reply. I saw that on www.qfit.com it shows that progression loses lots more than others. I don't know, I think the only real test is in a casino. And everyone has thier ups and downs.

    Bill
  • "I once had a running discussion (arguement?) with a guy whose simulation proved that my positive progressive system lost more than flat betting. I questioned the validity of his simulation program, and proved that it was faulty. "

    Walter, I have let your comments go until now. But this is too much. Your system was proved by Roger and by me with separate simulators to perform slightly worse than flat-betting for reasons published by Prof. Peter Griffin in Theory of Blackjack. Your statement that you "proved that it was faulty" is a complete fabrication. Go right ahead and sell your book to suckers. But, when you tell lies like this you are committing fraud.

    http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm
  • QFIT said:
    "I once had a running discussion (arguement?) with a guy whose simulation proved that my positive progressive system lost more than flat betting. I questioned the validity of his simulation program, and proved that it was faulty. "

    Walter, I have let your comments go until now. But this is too much. Your system was proved by Roger and by me with separate simulators to perform slightly worse than flat-betting for reasons published by Prof. Peter Griffin in Theory of Blackjack. Your statement that you "proved that it was faulty" is a complete fabrication. Go right ahead and sell your book to suckers. But, when you tell lies like this you are committing fraud.

    http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm


    You are a liar Norm/QFIT ..!

    I’m not a fan of Walter’s system but I respect his work, I'm not selling anything but I want the truth. You Norm are a liar!

    Why didn’t you readjust the average bet? Walter has a bigger average than the flat bettor. Make all player have the same average and then people ca see that Walter's system is at parity with flat betting. Why did you setup the flat bettor to have QP and not having Walter’s system with QP?

    As you can see from data, Walter’s system has double action and his average is double vs. flat bettor. And, the card counter doesn’t win much to be proud of.

    Why don’t you and Roger the joke math guy, simulate my system the way I asked you to do in my previous posts? Why are you avoiding the issue Norm? – I’m telling you why: Because my system will beat any card counter. My system wins more money than any counting system from CVCX and from CX of Don Schlesinger all three books put all together.

    Your simulations and your math are worthless. Stop being a liar!
    But what should we expect from touts and hucksters like yourself that prey on the lack of knowledge of the newbies and sell them bogus systems? These individuals like yourself Norm, are the epitome of sleaze, so what else could we expect from them?

    We know the system hucksters are producing books containing worthless wystems and software that will cause the purchasers of such products to actually lose more than they would have lost had they not purchased these worthless systems. That is why the casinos are helping to produce these books, videos and software that teaches card counting. Not to mention the fact the casinos have sent flyers out to their customers offering them free card counting courses! Not to mention spending big money in advertising in casino magazines that are published by the authors of these card counting books and courses. Clearly, the casinos want card counters to come to their casinos, and they are supporting system hucksters to promote or steer suckers into their casinos. The casinos know that steering suckers into casinos violates criminal statutes, so they are using their "agents" instead to circumvent the criminal law.

    Meanwhile, the system hucksters like yoursef Norm, actually receive money from the suckers stupid enough to purchase such dangerous systems like CVBJ, CVCX, CVDATA, and enjoy "consulting status" big paychecks from the casino industry. Remember Wong and Snyder both surfaced working for the TropWorld casino as did Anthony Curtis and Max Rubin in a recent lawsuit in which a card counter sued the casino for cheating...and won.

    Go right ahead and sell your software for $295 to suckers. But, when you tell lies like the one above you are committing fraud.
  • "Why didn’t you readjust the average bet? Walter has a bigger average than the flat bettor. Make all player have the same average and then people ca see that Walter's system is at parity with flat betting. "

    Simple math. The average bet doesn't matter because the advantage takes that into account. Advantage is a percentage. Making the flat-bets ten times as high doesn't change the advantage. Think.

    "Why did you setup the flat bettor to have QP and not having Walter’s system with QP? "

    Walter's system was simmed with quit points.

    As for simulating your system, no one is stupid enough to fall for that. That challenge has been met in numerous past situations. You sim a system. It fails. The system seller makes up a new rule. It fails. The system seller makes up yet a new rule. It fails. Then the system seller claims math doesn't work. Meanwhile the casinos make trillions off of suckers that buy into superstitious get-rick-quick systems disproved centuries ago.

    Now go ahead and call me all the names you wish. This is my one and only response to you.
  • QFIT said:
    "Why didn’t you readjust the average bet? Walter has a bigger average than the flat bettor. Make all player have the same average and then people ca see that Walter's system is at parity with flat betting. "

    Simple math. The average bet doesn't matter because the advantage takes that into account. Advantage is a percentage. Making the flat-bets ten times as high doesn't change the advantage. Think.

    "Why did you setup the flat bettor to have QP and not having Walter’s system with QP? "

    Walter's system was simmed with quit points.

    As for simulating your system, no one is stupid enough to fall for that. That challenge has been met in numerous past situations. You sim a system. It fails. The system seller makes up a new rule. It fails. The system seller makes up yet a new rule. It fails. Then the system seller claims math doesn't work. Meanwhile the casinos make trillions off of suckers that buy into superstitious get-rick-quick systems disproved centuries ago.

    Now go ahead and call me all the names you wish. This is my one and only response to you.


    We know the system hucksters like yourself, are producing books containing worthless wystems and software that will cause the purchasers of such products to actually lose more than they would have lost had they not purchased these worthless systems. That is why the casinos are helping to produce these books, videos and software that teaches card counting. Not to mention the fact the casinos have sent flyers out to their customers offering them free card counting courses! Not to mention spending big money in advertising in casino magazines that are published by the authors of these card counting books and courses. Clearly, the casinos want card counters to come to their casinos, and they are supporting system hucksters to promote or steer suckers into their casinos. The casinos know that steering suckers into casinos violates criminal statutes, so they are using their "agents" instead to circumvent the criminal law.

    Meanwhile, the system hucksters like yoursef Norm, actually receive money from the suckers stupid enough to purchase such dangerous systems like CVBJ, CVCX, CVDATA, and enjoy "consulting status" big paychecks from the casino industry. Remember Wong and Snyder both surfaced working for the TropWorld casino as did Anthony Curtis and Max Rubin in a recent lawsuit in which a card counter sued the casino for cheating...and won.

    Go right ahead and sell your software for $295 to suckers. But, when you tell lies like the one above you are committing fraud AGAIN!

    PS: Nothing is chaged Norm, Stop being a liar again. You did simulate my system but refuse to post the data. I am 100% sure you run my system, but again here are the general rules:
    Bet 2% of the hole. Start from -$100. If the bank gets to be positive. Stop simulation. If the bank is negative bet 2% of that. Run a minimum one billion hands at the end add the 100 back to the bankroll and post the results.
  • To the Board.

    I have never worked for a casino. I have never consulted to a casino. I have never sold a system. I have no books or magazines. I have never testified for a casino. I have never been helped by a casino to publish anything. I will give every cent I have to anyone that can prove otherwise.

    Norman Wattenberger
    100 United Nations Plaza
    New York, NY 10017
    212-593-1747

    The above is my real name, address and phone number.
  • Norman,

    There's no need to explain yourself. Hopefully, no one gives any creedence to what Alex says anymore.

    Leon
  • Leon, Thanks. I like your signature:)
  • norm,

    like leon said no one believes a thing Alex posts..

    and like you said Alex is just trying to trick you into running the sim for him
  • QFIT said:
    To the Board.

    I have never worked for a casino. I have never consulted to a casino. I have never sold a system. I have no books or magazines. I have never testified for a casino. I have never been helped by a casino to publish anything. I will give every cent I have to anyone that can prove otherwise.

    Norman Wattenberger
    100 United Nations Plaza
    New York, NY 10017
    212-593-1747

    The above is my real name, address and phone number.


    You are so desperate, you are actually try to con people into believing that your systems and analysis of card counting are legitimate. Yet you post under an alias as QFIT, but NEVER says anything solid about Blackjack, you just repeat what Thorp have discovered 40 years ago on single deck S17, DAS, with 99% penetration. You just post child like attacks on Walter. The con man inside of you is clearly growing exponentially Norm, and I suspect you have not seen anything yet....wait until I start revealing what “we” from downtown Vegas Fremont Street know about the system huckster like yourself and others in connections with illegal online casinos. As I am sure the authorities will be as interested as the readers in all these casino connections, “we” of course will keep them informed.

    As I’ve stated before, I’m not a fan of Walter’s system. I have his book, I’ve played his system, in the past, and won some $$ with. I even have a copy of his original manuscript with his original 5,000 hands used in his study. I’m not a fan, but I respect his work and dedication. I respect that he put heart in his work and the book doesn’t seem to be a con book like others out there. His interpretation of his data points is one of the best I ever read about in any BJ book.

    So, don’t try to com people because doesn’t work anymore Norm. Probably you can con Joe Doe from Kansas coming with his kids and wife in a family vacation to Vegas. But be assured you cannot con anymore like you did in CVCX or CX.
  • AlexD30 said:
    you just repeat what Thorp have discovered 40 years ago on single deck S17, DAS, with 99% penetration.



    I like this the best. Alex, this just in..... the game hasnt changed and there is NO new no loss system out there. there NEVER was and there NEVER will be..
  • Whenever a billion hands of blackjack produces numbers .564,.567 and
    .570 for three different methods I think you would have to call them at
    least close to equal. This should come as no supprise to any logical mind.
    What is troubling to me is the fact that for some reason this fact is not
    readily apparent to everyone that will take 5 minutes to just think.

    Consider the following progression: 10-20-30-40-50 .....Each level of this
    progression is just another bet and for any bet regardless of its frequency,
    the basic strategy player is a 47.5 underdog. If you lose more bets at all
    levels, then how can you possibly win? We know the probability of winning
    2,3,4,5 in a row and as a result we know how many hands we will play and
    win/lose at all levels for some long term cycle. What appears to be chance
    occurances in the short term, over time, prove to be absolute fact.

    Quit points are the nearest thing to a mystical belief that I can imagine.
    I think it's safe to say that quit points have no effect on anything and
    are voodoo in every regard.

    Streaks- So, one weekend we play a very long session and have 10 four
    hand win streaks by our count. So, you may ask what about the fifth hand
    for all those streaks. How about 47.5 player and 52.5 dealer. We had our
    streaks but the amount of time that we gave up one unit at a time will
    more than offset the 4.75 times we win the five level bet. It's not
    uncommon,at least for me, to play a 4hr session and never win 5 in a row.

    Ray
  • Alex - What's going on with you duds that just maybe you should tell
    the rest us about?

    Ray
  • QFIT said:
    Simple math. The average bet doesn't matter because the advantage takes that into account. Advantage is a percentage.


    What are you talking about average bet Norm? - You just posted on your con web site that Walter’s system losses over $11 MILIONS vs. both flat bettors togeter. Why didn’t you set all the averages equal and let the readers see what is going on there. The loss percentages are very close to each other, 0.564, 0.567 and 0.570 for the three methods. You should have called them at least equal. But, NO!, You didn’t! – You just jumped and slam Walter over the face with your worthless, bogus con man BJ data make believe that the card counter that played with a 1:8 spread was a WINNER of 4 cents per each $100 bet. What an accomplishment.., Hmm? Making 4 pennies every time he bets $100, and you call his card counting a winning system?

    Now, the suckers see this and they believe that you cannot lose because Norman's computer say so. They go out and bet, and guess what? They toss down the tube 5K in a single night downtown Vegas. No quit points at all, they just bet like in the big blind by the count and they lose doing the right thing, .., Standard Deviation! .., you say .., Hmm?

    Every time someone like yourself peddle worthless software con data, you take the opportunity to libel. The peddlers like yourself are desperate to hide facts from the readers of this forum and others that virtually hundreds of people believe your con data and they adventure in casino losing their hard earned money. What an unethical and completely sleazy tactic to use for the express purpose of hiding the truth from the suckers stupid enough to bet money on worthless card counting data systems. But what should we expect from peddlers and hucksters like yourself that prey on the lack of knowledge of the newbies and sell them bogus software data? These individuals like yourself are the epitome of sleaze, Norm.

    You Norm, think you can post con information on this forum or others like BJ21 .. etc, publish con and false data and just walk away? Surprise Norm - you have a big surprise coming your way!

    We are blowing the whistle on all these con man operations, and recently uncovered some incredible connections between system huckster con men and online casinos. We, from Vegas, are blowing the whistle on the fact the very same con men that want you to buy a so-called card counting software simulator system, are steering you to casinos they have a financial interest in to make sure you loses your money. What a con! We also started blowing the whistle on those system huckster con men that actually take suckers into the casinos and play with their clients money for a percentage of the wins. This con game operation was recently admitted by two well-known con men that post on another BJ forums; (A.KA. The Silver Skunk and Edward The Sleaze). If you would like to review the posts in which these two con men admitted such con man swindles, I will post it.
  • Ray said:
    Alex - What's going on with you duds that just maybe you should tell
    the rest us about?

    Ray


    Ray,
    I have not spammed this forum. Every post I have made was on-topic - and that is not spamming. I’m not claiming that playing my system one cannot possibly lose. Yes, it can happen if there is no ROR or bets management. If you do not manage ROR, my system can blow into a full Martingale with time. But, poor Walter has published a nice book, he put his heart into his work and I am certain he is not a con. Walter is not a con, he is a honorable guy that plays BJ with some kind of money management and some ROR control setup build in. He manually dealed to himself 5,000 hands, recorded the results and interpreted the data. I find this hard work to be very honorable and should be at least respected.

    Now, even if Walter’s system is at par with flat betting, which seems to be the case, he still can extract large sums of money from casino interest free until he pays them back. If you will. Or my system for that matter, if you abandon the hole at some point you obviously give back some money but in the process of playing you “borrowed” large sums of cash for interest free that you keep at least for a while if you don’t manage ROR and your bets along the way. Nothing wrong with that!

    Anyway, that is not the point. The point is that Norm comes along and slams Walter into obliteration, posting on his con web site that Walter’s system have lost over $11 millions vs. both flat players together. He is promoting that the card counter is a winner, his card counter wins money and so that card counting system is superior to all. Moreover, the card counter data shows an income of 4 pennies per each $100 action with an average bet of 1.48 units per hand. So a player that bets in black and has a $148 average bet, he can earn 0.048% of his hourly action that is $14,800 * 0.048% = $7.10/hour.

    Nothing wrong with making $7.10/hour, but if you show someone bets an average of $148 per hand and earns only a double whopper hamburger per hour, than we have a problem if you claim you have a superior system. At least, as I said before, Walter’s system can extract interest free large sums of cash, even if he’s got to give it back sometime during the long run. If he hits couple winning streaks, he can take home money otherwise not available to him. Is like borrowing interest free money from the Bank of Bellagio, Bank of Caesars or Mandalay Bay Bank.. etc .. :wink:

    I’m not getting into other details in regard to this bunch of con peddlers that get jobs from casinos. Wong, Arnold Snyder, Anthony Curtis and the captain of the gang Max Rubin has and still does consulting jobs for casinos in lawsuits of card counters vs. casino industry all over Nevada and couple even in federal courts too. They promote card counting on one hand and on the other they get paid big money from gambling industry to testify against the very ones that got involved with theirs systems in the first place. This is an accurate fact that is written black and white in court documents.

    These individuals represent the quintessence of sleaze.
  • Norm: I've no intention of debating with you on this or any other website. Contact Roger, and ask him if he conceeded to me that there appeared to be a glitch in his program regarding how split hands were recorded. In effect his program was showing a much smaller percentage of split hands than would be expected in long term play. I retained a copy of his e-mail to me regarding this matter, and would be glad to send it to you. Roger stopped attacking me after he discovered this glitch, and sort of dropped out of site for a while, so I assume that he couldn't correct or didn't attempt to correct the problem with his program.
    I will not respond to further posts regarding this matter, but I don't condone many of the comments posted my others on this website regarding your character. I've always found you to be a sincere and honorable man.
    Best Wishes,
    Walter
  • Walter, I thank you for the kind words. But, let there be no mistake that sims show that your strategy in specific and quit points (without considering a count) in general do not materially affect advantage. Correctly run sims show that your results are nearly identical to flat-betting just as the math says.

    norm

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