Betting and the TC
  • I'm very new to blackjack (I just picked it up 3 weeks ago for something to do over the holidays) and am just wondering what the best betting system is. I've read some posts on this message board about the positive progression system but from what I gethered it doesn't take into account the TC. So wouldn't a system based on the TC be better?
  • iglooau said:
    I'm very new to blackjack (I just picked it up 3 weeks ago for something to do over the holidays) and am just wondering what the best betting system is. I've read some posts on this message board about the positive progression system but from what I gethered it doesn't take into account the TC. So wouldn't a system based on the TC be better?


    No positive progression system will work in the long run.
    No TC count system will work in the long run... unless you can get "random shuffles."
    And just in case those comments made your wonder... No Clump Card system will work in the short or long run.

    That's my opinons. I'm sure others disagree.

    Now, I'm off to B.C., LA to play what works for me :D

    Best of luck,
    Gary
  • I don't follow the "No TC system will work in the long run."

    In fact, they definitely _will_ work in the long run, and even do pretty well in the short-run if you understand the variance issue. Counting is the _only_ system that will work in the long-run to beat BJ.

    I've been playing a balanced TC system for 4 years (Hi-Lo) and it certainly works for me and the others I know that use it... Maybe I misunderstood your response...
  • stainless- Same here H/L or close to it for 25 yrs. The point of departure
    seems to be the illusion of a non-random shuffle. If I hand you a new
    deck and give you six life-times, can you by and shuffle procedure known
    demonstrate a non-random shuffle? I think not! The idea of non-random
    shuffle usually leads to some other illusion. Clump card is one and more
    streaks than normal for progression players is another,etc,etc.

    Having said that, I think I'll get on my illusionary horse and bogus out of
    here.
  • Ray said:
    ......six life-times, can you by any shuffle procedure known demonstrate a non-random shuffle? I think not!


    Ray - I believe you are mistaken. A non-random shuffle with six deck is a piece of cake. I could give you one in an hour or so (not six life-times) of actual play.

    That said, the fact that it can be done is moot. The questions are: Is it being done, why would it be done, and what are the ramifications for both the house and the player if it was done....Those are the things that no one can agree on.

    Regards....Grifter
  • Grifter- I'll stick to Webster and rest my case. Her is an example of
    what I mean by Non-random. Remove all 8's from the deck which
    leaves a balance of 2-7 vs 9-A. Put all 8's in front(4 of them) then
    2-9,followed by 3-10, etc. I know what every next card is because
    of the preceeding card. That is non-random and I defy anyone of
    average dealer skills to shuffle that configuration in the blind.

    In a six deck shoe:

    Large cards follow small.....YES
    Large follow large..............YES
    Small follow large..............YES
    Small follow Small..............YES
    Sets of all types..................YES

    This is the absolute essence of randomness because what comes next
    is unknown,etc...nor is the order known.

    Now maybe there is a definition in BJ circles that has not gotten to me
    yet. What do we mean by "random"?

    Ray
  • Did any one else take up the Pro's offer for "Triangle Blackjack" :?: http://www.hitorstand.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=812
    with out going into specifics of it obviously, it looks a good, sensible system :!: , I'm no card counter but with some practise this looks like some thing I could handle, and add it to my bag of ammo against the casino :D , once I get back in to the old routine after the holidays 8) :lol: I'll give it a try, take care and be lucky

    Cheers :wink:

    Colin
  • Grifter- Never mind responding to the above. I think I know where you
    are coming from. Yes the casino can, but I frankly don't know of any
    that I thought were. My refection above did not consider the casino as cheating and is directed more to the clump card and streaks claims.

    The terminology may be the root cause of the differences.

    Ray
  • Consider that BJ's are discarded separately from play. Thats enough there to convince me that locating a sweet spot is likely by either side.

    Observe the shuffle, track it. See where the sweet spot ends up. Notice where the cut-card is placed in relation to the sweet spot. Bet heavier when the sweet spot is close, and during.
  • Nickels- I seen as many as three go to the tray at once and try as I may
    I 've never been able to get it right. I'd lose everytime at the shell game.
  • This is one of two areas of advantage play I have simply not tried to touch.

    Ace-tracking seems reasonable, but appears to take a _lot_ of practice and experience. I play too irregularly. Shuffle-tracking makes a lot of sense to a counter, since you often get 1.5-2decks of _good_ cards cut off (where the count is high and the good cards remain in the shoe until the shuffle.) Tracking them seems reasonable, but I have simply not gotten into that...

    I have seen different types of shuffles, some of which certainly seem to be exploitable to someone that has gotten into this. Some have been modified to break up the large slug of cards remaining in the shoe before the shuffle starts, and then the shuffle is good enough to further dilute the slugs to the point they are worthless...
  • "No TC count system will work in the long run... unless you can get "random shuffles." Gary

    I am in conflict with you on this one, Gary :roll:

    Card counting while at Blackjack table is the only way you can get a long term, statistical advantage over casino. Card counting works on the concept that some cards are good for the player (high-value cards), while others are bad for the player and good for the dealer (low-value cards). Why are the low-value cards good for the dealer? Because the dealer has to follow rigid rules regarding hitting. He must hit if has less than 17. Taking note of the cards that have been played can determine whether the remaining cards are beneficial to the player, and altering betting and playing strategy accordingly. This may sound like a complex process, but it is in fact relatively simple.

    How large is your advantage when counting cards? On some hands it can be as high as three or four percent, but overall it is around 1.5%, depending upon the specific rules of the game. Counting does not give us an automatic winning edge on every hand. You will win, on average, about 44% of all hands played in the long-run that is defined as beginning after about 400 or 500 hours of play. This will give us some 50,000 hands, a number large enough that it can have statistical significance. After so many hands your edge has a powerfull impact on results.

    How much can you possibly make at blackjack?
    If you have an average bet of say, $150 and an overall edge of 1.5% then you are making $2.25 per hand regardless if you win or lose a specific hand during the process. You become a toll booth on every hand while the casino sticks 9 quarters in your pocket. Professional players measure their theoretical win rate for the long-run. If your theoretical win for a full time working week ( 40 hours) is $9000 but you won $12,000 (very possible) then YOU didn't make $12,000. YOU made $9000 and luck got you an extra $3000 for the short run. Card counters make money the slow and steady way.

    The theory is wonderful -- but no longer as profitable as it once was in the 60s and 70s but it still can make considerable amounts of money. I would say that an accomplished card counter well bankrolled in today’s market can make $250,000 per year if he is willing to move and travel around.

    As Don S once was saying in one of his books : “The ability to win in this game comes through dedication and discipline. But most of all, this game takes an incredible amount of heart. It takes an iron will and a fierce determination to succeed. It takes physical stamina, nerves of steel, and an inordinate amount of discipline and self-control. Without all those things the technical skills are meaningless. Blackjack played at the professional level will test your soul, your character, and the very fiber of your being.”
  • test the very fiber of my being.....youre tripping me out Alex!
    Prog
  • PROGRESSIONIST said:
    test the very fiber of my being.....youre tripping me out Alex!
    Prog


    Well, Prog, if you play blackjack at the professional level while betting from $100 to $700 or max out with 2 hands of $400 each, that will test your soul, your character, and the very fiber of your being. Believe it!

    You will be making over 250K/year but you better be prepare to be cool under pressure and take it all in. You better not be emotionally attached to the short term results. You have to turn yourself into a well-oiled machine and play like a robot.
  • hey Alex who am I to argue with a guy who played blackjack with Kenny Uston? Take care-
    Prog
  • Alex- All of what you say is true, but surprise, surprise.....you've got to
    play that way regardless of bet or BR size as long as you have the proper
    proportionality(bet to BR).
  • stainless steel rat said:
    I don't follow the "No TC system will work in the long run."

    In fact, they definitely _will_ work in the long run, and even do pretty well in the short-run if you understand the variance issue. Counting is the _only_ system that will work in the long-run to beat BJ.

    I've been playing a balanced TC system for 4 years (Hi-Lo) and it certainly works for me and the others I know that use it... Maybe I misunderstood your response...


    To be more accurate, I should have said: For the vast majority of players no TC system will work in the long run without totally random shuffles. The non-randomness kills most but not all.

    The non-randomness and several other factors are why most, not all, would be advantage players fail.

    Congrats on your winning! Keep doing what you are doing.

    Best of luck,
    Gary
  • Ray said:
    If I hand you a new deck and give you six life-times, can you by and shuffle procedure known demonstrate a non-random shuffle? I think not!


    Yes, with the exception of single deck, the shuffle would be non-random 100% of the time. It's impossible to randomize 2-8 decks under casino conditions as demonstrated in 1992 by Bayer and Diaconis.

    Regards,
    Gary
  • colin563 said:
    Did any one else take up the Pro's offer for "Triangle Blackjack" :?: http://www.hitorstand.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=812
    with out going into specifics of it obviously, it looks a good, sensible system :!: , I'm no card counter but with some practise this looks like some thing I could handle, and add it to my bag of ammo against the casino :D , once I get back in to the old routine after the holidays 8) :lol: I'll give it a try, take care and be lucky

    Cheers :wink:

    Colin


    Thanks Colin!

    I think you will be very surprised with the ease of Triangle Blackjack once you practice a few hours. I also think you will be pleasantly surprised with your overall return.

    Colin, you are free to discuss Triangle Blackjack with anyone and in any forum you wish. As so stated in the members area.

    Best of luck,
    Gary
  • Greetings Alex!

    AlexD30 said:
    "No TC count system will work in the long run... unless you can get "random shuffles." Gary

    I am in conflict with you on this one, Gary :roll:

    Card counting while at Blackjack table is the only way you can get a long term, statistical advantage over casino. Card counting works on the concept that some cards are good for the player (high-value cards), while others are bad for the player and good for the dealer (low-value cards). Why are the low-value cards good for the dealer? Because the dealer has to follow rigid rules regarding hitting. He must hit if has less than 17. Taking note of the cards that have been played can determine whether the remaining cards are beneficial to the player, and altering betting and playing strategy accordingly. This may sound like a complex process, but it is in fact relatively simple.

    There is no disagreement from me on the theory of card counting and why it should work.

    I've been counting cards since 1968 and I know how powerful TC was until the mid 80's when single deck blackjack with favorable conditions ceased to exist. And in the late 80's when casinos changed their shuffling procedures to make the shoe game even less random.

    We all know high value cards favor the player with one exception, and that exception is when the remaining high value cards are distributed in a manner that would cause you to lose more than 50% of your raised wagers.

    AlexD30 said:
    "The theory is wonderful -- but no longer as profitable as it once was in the 60s and 70s but it still can make considerable amounts of money. I would say that an accomplished card counter well bankrolled in today’s market can make $250,000 per year if he is willing to move and travel around.

    I agree, if the bank is there, the dedication is there, and the player can absorb the huge fluctuations both mentally and financially a traditional card counter can still be successful. Not as successful as the book authors would have you believe, but successful to a smaller degree than expected. But, not many fall into this category.

    Best to you Alex,
    Gary
  • Ray said:
    Alex- All of what you say is true, but surprise, surprise.....you've got to
    play that way regardless of bet or BR size as long as you have the proper
    proportionality(bet to BR).


    Ray, you are right 100%. The value in dollars of the bank doesn’t matter as long as you have the proportionality (bank/bet) that gives you the lowest ROR. I will go for the 0.0% ROR and that probably is with a bank of 2000 units. A red chip player betting from $5 to $50 can beat the double deck game and get a 1.25% edge over it.

    At that bet level and spread you will have a average of about $10 if you bet $5 from 0 to –4. Don’t play if the count drops under –4 and bet the TC in $10 increments on any positive count from +1 all the way to your top bet of $50. This betting system based on the TC will earn you $0.0125 per hand or $12.5 per hour and the total bankroll is only $10,000 with 0.0% ROR.

    If you have a local casino where you can play every day you can easily make the cash necessary to pay all your bills and live for free. This can be accomplished with a relatively small bank and a small average bet while you have zero ROR.
  • Yes, if at all possible you need to play every day. I got close to that in
    December, but that don't happen very often. You can play a winning
    game, but at the same time be a loser if you don't get in enough hnds.
    It's not an easy way to make a buck and that is for sure.

    I'm not going to argue the point of what is random and what is not.
    I know what it is in my world and that is good enough for me.

    Alex- I may be able to pay all the bills and live free with the offset
    method. I may need a casino next door and play 16 hrs a day to do it.
  • Well, Ray,
    Play as much as you can every month and make the car payments from the BJ offset method. Even that is a great accomplishment.
  • AlexD30

    The value in dollars of the bank doesn’t matter as long as you have the proportionality (bank/bet) that gives you the lowest ROR. I will go for the 0.0% ROR and that probably is with a bank of 2000 units


    Can you explain to me what ROR is please.

    ISpartacus
  • ISpartacus said:
    AlexD30

    The value in dollars of the bank doesn’t matter as long as you have the proportionality (bank/bet) that gives you the lowest ROR. I will go for the 0.0% ROR and that probably is with a bank of 2000 units


    Can you explain to me what ROR is please.

    ISpartacus


    ROR is Risk of Ruin. (total loss of bankroll)

    If for some reason you don’t bet optimally you may be exposing yourself to a frighteningly high risk of ruin (total loss of bankroll). In practice, even with best play, there is a remote chance that something similar will happen, i.e. an exceptionally bad run of luck that depletes bankroll to such an extent that continued play is no longer viable. To avoid this we use a bankroll of about 2000 or 3000 chips/units and this will give us a 0.00% ROR
  • ROR is not that simple. You need some info such as

    1. starting bankroll in units
    2. goal (ie doubling your BR)
    3. win rate and standard deviation for the specific rules/game
    /bet spread you will be playing

    then you can use a ROR calculator like the one that is built-in to CV Blackjack to answer a question like "how likely am I to double my bankroll as opposed to losing it all?"

    ROR is tied tightly to the specific game you play. A shoe game with 6-8 decks has a much higher standard deviation than a SD or DD game. For example I tried 3000 units, with a goal of doubling, with a pretty tough 6d shoe, and got a ROR of 99% because the win rate was slow and the SD was high.

    For the previous poster, if you play a winning game, you will win, so long as you have enough chips to survive the deep negative swings you can encounter. You will also see large positive swings, but it is easy to play through those. :) But if you run out of chips before you reach the end of the negative swing and start climbing back out of the hole, you are done and you are ruined.

    To answer these kinds of questions, I highly recomment both CV blackjack and CVCX, the simulator. With CVCX you can enter any rules you want, simulate as many millions of rounds as you'd like, then look at your win rate with various bet spreads and betting ramps to see what you can expect in that particular game. You also find the optimal betting ramp for that specific game and the spread you want to use, taking all the guesswork out of the system.. Then you can use the ROR calculator to see how much money you need to take with you to keep ROR acceptably low...

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