FLUCTUATIONS
  • Most of us don't play enough BJ to experience the stress that comes
    with large bankroll fluctuations. No doubt the card counter comments
    posted by Surfteg are the true realities that one would face when trying
    to play professionally. How many of you take 5-6 two week trips or play
    every other day year after year? More like none.........

    You may be like me....play a lot when you can, but very little at other
    times. All of us have experienced the good and bad sessions and some
    of us are lifetime winners because we have had our share of good luck.

    In 2003 I had my best year ever and went to the casino expecting to
    win and did most of the time. 2004 was a different story. I struggled
    from January through Most of November. Strange things happened at
    various times. During Jan and Feb I had trouble with doubles of all
    types and it got to the point where I thought there was something
    wrong with the cards. December and a 10 day trip was a recovery
    period and put me back in the black for the year, but those were not
    the kind of fluctuations that takes you to the bottom of the pit.

    With our somewhat sporadic play, we may never hit one of those killer
    losing streaks and unless you keep good records you may not be able
    to determine if you are a winner or loser over time.
  • Ray, when I Count, I mostly use a Balanced Hi/Lo count,
    BUT I NEVER Raise my bets until AFTER a High Count REVERSAL,
    WHEN the High Cards ACTUALLY start coming out on a DESCENDING Count...I like to SEE some PROOF of 9's, 10's, and Aces BEFORE I Raise my Bets...

    I have noticed that I WIN most of my Bets AND that the Dealer BREAKS most often during a -1 to O to +1 Count Range, especially AFTER an EXTREME Plus or Minus Count...

    This is my favorite Balanced Hi/Lo 24/24 Count :
    2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = +1
    8 = O
    9, 10, Ace = -1
  • I don't see how that can work. You want to recognize a "streak" (hi cards coming out) before the streak ends. The count can jump, you can get a natural (the count drops) and the count can continue to increase again from that point forward.

    You have to bet when the count says bet, not when you believe that high cards are actually coming out of the deck.

    Otherwise this is not AP at all, it is just gambling.
  • I wish the card I see was an indicator of the next.

    I wish I could program around the future.

    I wish I could win all the time.

    But if you think you can do any of those things:

    "you can't win"
  • The BIG Difference for me is that I WAIT for a Count REVERSAL,
    AFTER a High Count PEAKS,
    and is DESCENDING back to the Neutral ZERO area
    WHERE I WIN most often AND the Dealer BREAKS most often...

    In my experience during the last 17 years of serious Blackjack action,
    at least 90% of ALL Counters LOSE at least 90% of the time
    WHEN they Bet UP into a HIGH Count BEFORE the High Cards are ACTUALLY coming out,
    especially in 4 to 6 to 8 Deck shoes...THIS is the FATAL FLAW of most Card Counters...

    Important Quote from Lance Humble,
    "there is new research going on concerning what happens WHEN the count is extremely POSITIVE...the player is actually at a DISadvantage WHEN the count is a very HIGH plus. This agrees with the feelings of myself AND many other players who have reported OFTEN LOSING BIG BETS IN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SITUATIONS"(The World's Greatest Blackjack Book, 1987 Revised Edition, pages 92, 315-316).
  • In a real game, you won't know the count has peaked and started to drop until it has already dropped. Take a DD game, where you are one deck into it with a RC of +4, after the previous hand it was +3 so it appears to be going up. On the next hand, you get a BJ, the dealer gets a 20, the RC is now zero, and you had no opportunity to get your big bet out when you had the advantage.

    your scheme says "I just had the advantage, and the advantageous cards came out as I expected, but I didn't bet big and so the advantage was lost."

    The only math you can depend on is that when the count is high, you have an advantage and the only way to use that advantage is to bet big, because when the count is negative, the house has the edge, and if you are flat-betting waiting to recognize something that you can't recognize until it is gone, you are not playing with any advantage over the house at all.

    All the counting books explain this.

    Yes, when the count is high, your advantage might drop, but it _never_ drops to a disadvantage. If there aree 20 cards left, and all are 10's, your EV drops to 0.0 since every hand will be a push even though the TC is sky-high. But if there are a few non-10's in the deck, or even better a few of those are Aces, then your advantage becomes very real again, as a natural pays you 3:2, but only pays the dealer 1:1.

    Anyone can wreck a good counting system. I use simple hi-lo and find it works effectively, when played correctly. Anything can be whacked to pieces. Follow Patterson's advice for a short-cut to the poorhouse. Of course he will appreciate your purchasing his book first...
  • I would also recommend the following, since one never knows the outcome of the next hand in advance.

    Do not increase a losing bet (incl. LS if offered) or a push (splits and DD included) according to the count. Raise only after a win. When the count drops, you adjust lower regardless of the outcome.

    The Missouri Cover Bet (show me a winner first, before I bet bigger).

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