Strategies & Statistics I Use...
  • ADVANCED BLACKJACK POWER STRATEGY
    _________________________________________________________
    HARD
    HAND 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
    15-21 S S S S S S S S S S S S S
    14 S S S S S H H H H H H H H
    13 H H S S S H H H H H H H H
    12 H H S S S H H H H H H H H
    11 D D D D D D D D H H H H H
    10 D D D D D D D D H H H H H
    9 D D D D D D D D H H H H H
    5-8 H H H H H H H H H H H H H

    SOFT
    HAND 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
    A/2 H H D D D H H H H H H H H
    A/3 H H D D D H H H H H H H H
    A/4 H H D D D H H H H H H H H
    A/5 H H D D D H H H H H H H H
    A/6 H H D D D H H H H H H H H
    A/7 H H D D D S S H H H H H H
    A/8 S S S S S S S S S S S S S
    A/9 S S S S S S S S S S S S S
    A/10 S S S S S S S S S S S S S

    SPLIT
    PAIR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
    A/A SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP
    2/2 SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP H H H H H
    3/3 SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP H H H H H
    4/4 SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP H H H H H
    5/5 D D D D D D D D H H H H H
    6/6 SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP H H H H H
    7/7 SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP H H H H H
    8/8 SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP
    9/9 SP SP SP SP SP SP SP SP S S S S S
    10/10 S S S S S S S S S S S S S
    __________________________________________________________

    DEALER UP CARD BUST % & PLAYER ADVANTAGE % STATISTICS
    Dealer Up Card Dealer Bust % Player Advantage %
    2 35.30% +09.80%
    3 37.56% +13.40%
    4 40.28% +18.00%
    5 42.89% +23.09%
    6 42.08% +23.90%
    7 25.99% +14.30%
    8 23.86% +05.40%
    9 23.34% - 04.30%
    10, J, K, Q 21.43% - 16.90%
    Ace 11.65% - 36.00%

    PLAYER HAND HIT BUST % STATISTICS
    Player Hand Average Hit % Bust Special Hit Bust %
    12 31% 10/2 with Dealer 10 up = 28%
    13 40% 10/3 with Dealer 10 up = 36%
    14 48% 10/4 with Dealer 10 up = 44%
    15 56% 10/5 with Dealer 10 up = 52%
    16 64% 10/6 with Dealer 10 up = 60%
    17 72% 10/7 with Dealer 10 up = 68%
    18 80% 10/8 with Dealer 10 up = 76%
    19 88% 10/9 with Dealer 10 up = 84%
    ____________________________________________________________
    STRATEGIC POWER TIPS :

    Always STAND on ALL Hands of 19, 20, and 21 = Let The Dealer BUST!!!

    Always STAND on All HARD Hands of 15-21 = Let The Dealer BUST!!!

    UNDERSTAND THE "X FACTOR" ;
    You must Realize that there are 16 CARDS with a Value of 10 :
    10, J, Q, K = 31% of the CARDS!!!
    Expect a 10 Value Card in almost 1 out of 3 Cards,
    and Expect a Non 10 Value Card in 2 out of 3 Cards.

    ANALYZE the Win/Loss Table TREND Pattern BEFORE you Play :
    Up-Trend = 2/1, 3/2, etc... = Player Favorable
    Neutral-Trend = 1/1, 2/2, 3/3, etc... = 50/50
    Down-Trend = 1/2, 1/3, 2/3, etc... = Dealer Favorable

    STATISTICALLY,
    the most common Win/Loss PATTERN in BLACKJACK
    is 2 CONSECUTIVE WINNING or LOSING HANDS in a ROW,
    and most of the time there is usually NOT more than
    3 CONSECUTIVE WINNING or LOSING HANDS in a ROW,
    so AFTER 3 CONSECUTIVE WINNING HANDS,
    EXPECT to LOSE the next 2 HANDS (and MINIMIZE your BET SIZE accordingly),
    and AFTER 3 CONSECUTIVE LOSING HANDS,
    EXPECT to WIN the next 2 HANDS (and MAXIMIZE your BET SIZE accordingly).

    MEMORIZE the TOP 3 Dealer BUST CARDS :
    4 = 40% Average Dealer BUST rate
    5 = 43% Average Dealer BUST rate
    6 = 42% Average Dealer BUST rate

    SIT AT FIRST BASE WHENEVER POSSIBLE!!!
    1st Base = Direct First Choice of Cards on every Hand,
    and Prevents others from Interfering/Ruining your Hand.

    CAREFULLY ANALYZE A TABLE BEFORE YOU SIT DOWN :
    Find "Hot" Tables with no more than 3 to 5 Winning Players,
    and Losing Dealers who are Busting at least 25% of the time.
    Avoid Winning Dealers and Empty Tables where Players Lost.

    STATISTICALLY,
    A Dealer will usually BUST at least 25% of the time = 1 in every 4 Hands.
  • To All - It appears to me that most of the above post is from one of the voodoo books on blackjack......The 'strategy' shown is incorrect, and you are probably "donating" about an additional .1-.2% to the casino by using it.

    I'll try to explain more this afternoon when I get back from the casino, (if someone else doesn't in the meantime).

    Regards....Grifter
  • Hi Grifter...I love the "voodoo books" label...LOL...I guess that makes me a "shaman" or "witch doctor"...LOL...

    The BIG Difference for me is that my Strategies Actually WORK,
    because they are BASED upon 17 years of LIVE REAL-WORLD Casino Action and Experience,
    and NOT upon DEAD NON-REAL Computer "Simulations" of a "Game" that does NOT even Actually exist in most Casinos TODAY!!!...LOL

    I guess it's Old School vs. New Reality,
    and Long-Term Sit & Grind vs. Short-Term Hit & Run...

    Quote from Lance Humble,
    "This hit and run approach can help make you a more regular winner"(The World's Greatest Blackjack Book, 1987 Revised Edition, page 136).
  • Indeed, voodoo and ploppy logic.
  • Surfteg- Probabilities are not that easy for most folks to grasp. So, don't
    feel bad if I make a few corrections to your logic:

    1) When you lose 3 in a row, the probability that you will win the next
    two is still less than the probability that you will lose the next two.

    2) When you win three in a row the probability that you will lose the
    next two does not change in any way. The tiny effect of card removal
    is ignored in these two examples.

    History(hands gone by) means nothing to the cold realities of probabilities

    Standing on 15-21 ( and others) adds a percentage to the HA....any
    addition is unacceptable no matter your logic.

    Look at the these 2 realities and go re-read your post and "think".

    - History has no meaning in blackjack(excluding CC)
    - You can't out think, out guess, out program the unknown.

    Ray
  • I have been playing almost identical to this and have been winning 80% of the times I play and I play more than twice a week.... I believe in the winning two hands in a row as well and have developed a money management routine to go with this......
  • unclenorm,

    Are you willing to quit your day job? Are you willing to black chip based on this belief?
  • Hi jp...regarding the "ploppy" comment, here's one of my favorite quotes from Frank Scoblete in his Best Blackjack book, "Why do the ploppys win?...I know, anyone can get lucky in the short run...we all live in the short run, actually in the shortest run, which is called the "here and now." And in the here and now, today, four of the greatest ploppys to walk the earth just kept winning and winning and winning. They were Eveready Battery ploppys...I lost...At the Mirage two ploppys...were busy racking up the dough by playing atrociously...[for me] The day ended with a 95 unit loss...This is becoming depressing. I win my small bets of one and two units inlow counts and lose my high bets of 12 units in high counts"(1996 Edition, pages 221-222, 227)..
  • Hi Ray...no, I don't feel bad at all, and I truly enjoy other people's corrections, differences, viewpoints, etc...Variety is the Spice of Life...LOL...

    For me, whether I Count Cards or not, I still See and Experience the exact same consistent Win/Loss "Patterns" over and over again :
    2 or 3 Losses followed by 2 or 3 Wins, and 2 or 3 Wins followed by 2 or 3 Losses.
  • I don't have a day job......

    This weekend I played friday starting bet $15.00 profit $500.00 saturday starting bet $15.00 profit $200.00 sunday starting bet $15.00 profit $500.00...... I buy in at $100.00 and leave if I run out of this amount... doesn't happen often but it does happen..... will I increase my beginning bet? maybe I'm testing my new money management now and after 20 good sessions I will increase and let you know how I'm doing...
  • Hi unclenorm...Great to hear you are winning!!!...Just wondering what Blackjack books you like best, and have you read any of these "voodoo" books :

    Betting Blackjack by Frits Dunki-Jacobs
    Beat The Odds Blackjack by G. Phillip Cline
    21st Century Blackjack by Walter Thomason
    The Most Powerful Blackjack Manual by Jay Moore
    Blackjack Winner's Handbook & TARGET 21 by Jerry Patterson
    Precision Blackjack by Ron DiBenedetto
    Cutting Edge Blackjack by Richard Harvey
    Progression Blackjack by Donald A. Dahl
    Chances Are by Matt Summers
    Blackjack For Winners/CORE Sytem by Scott Frank
  • That list cinches it. :)

    Way more BS (bullsh**) than BS (Basic strategy).

    Anybody that follows those books is going to go broke. Regardless of the horsecrap posted about winning every time. It is just horsecrap. Enough to supply a 3rd world nation's fertilizer needs for the next three decades...
  • Stainless, what then are you suggesting... I agree the books are wrong in many cases but the folks who don't want to sit down and learn on their own get by playing using the basic stratagy charts... I like those players as they win enough to keep them cominig back. You can buy most books at the gift shop... tell me who would have a business and then sell a book to let the customer know how to take money from the business. Some thing is wrong there. If you have good money management and don't think you can win 3-4-5-on and on in a row I believe you can end up showing a profit...... Don't get greedy and try to win it all in one sitting.....
  • Here are you choices, in terms of max profit to max loss:

    1. Learn to count and apply it. You will play with at least double the edge the house has over a perfect BS player.

    2. Don't play at all. This has an EV of 0.0 which is better than any of the following options.

    3. play perfect BS only, and resign yourself to losing about .005% of every bet, or about 5 bucks an hour betting 10 bucks a hand. Do nothing but flat bet the table minimum each hand.

    4. Use a progression, which will not win, it will only increase your average bet, which will increase your average loss. If you play perfect BS and lose $5 an hour on a $10 min table, if your progression increases your average bet to $20, then you will lose $10 per hour. Etc.

    Progressions do not work. Patterson gives even _worse_ advice that will increase the house advantage to over 1%, meaning that you will lose at $10 to $20 per hour given the above two bet averages. Most of what he writes is just ridiculous babbling. Anyone can go to wizard of odds and look up the expected value for hitting or standing on a 15 vs dealer 10. To say always stand is just throwing money away.

    That list of authors is a who's who of quackery, dishonesty, stupidity, and so forth. The only people making money from the advice in those books is the authors every time someone buys one of 'em.

    Streaks are impossible to predict, until after they have already came and gone. Anyone that wins at BJ will tell you that progressions do not work. If a progression will work at BJ, it will work at any random game, including coin tosses. Do you believe you can actually beat a coin toss and win consistently??? That's the fly in this "ointment". Card counting is the _only_ way to win at BJ consistently, and even then you don't win every session due to variance issues. Just as surely as a BS player will win a session here and there, as the statistics demand this. But overall he is going to lose. A progression-only player is going to lose faster.
  • Good post, Stainless. Looks like you and Ray covered just about everything 'bogus' in the posts above. Let me add the following about the "Advanced Blackjack Power Strategy" posted at the start of this thread

    1. This "strategy" is suicide. It will triple the house advantage, giving the house about a 1.50% edge in lieu of 0.50% in a typical six deck game.

    2. I guess the poster assumes all blackjack games are created equal, or "one strategy fits all". No provisions are made for the number of decks, DAS or no DAS, H17 or S17, and no mention of Surrender.

    Regards.....Grifter
  • According to Edward O. Thorp,
    the "Big Secret" to Winning in Blackjack is to "Strike When the Deck is Hot"(Beat The Dealer, 1966 Edition, page 126)...

    This is because, according to Lance Humble, "it is MUCH more important to play in the right type of game than it is to play whatever strategy you are using...As long as you have the right type of game and can range your bets, you will win at a very quick rate no matter which system you use"(The World's Greatest Blackjack Book, 1987 Revised Edition, pages 313-314)...

    According to Lance Humble,"the first thing to look for is a table where the players are winning money. This will be a table where the dealer is honestly busting quite frequently"(The World's Greatest Blackjack Book, 1987 Revised Edition, page124).
  • Sorry for the "soapbox" but when I see the name "Patterson", I tend to "lose it."

    It is ok to sell a workable card counting system, and even tout it as "the best counting system known" (when it isn't). Because it will at least win you money. But Patterson goes way beyond "cold fusion" into the world of "Alice in Wonderland" where the normal laws of probablility don't apply, where streaks are predictable and exploitable, and where losing 20+ hands in a row never happens.

    I have been doing an "experiment" for a few months now, where I hit a group of casinos starting with $1000, and quit if I go bust or when I double. So far, I have doubled 4 times, and gone bust zero. But this last "trial" was beyond excruciating.

    Here are the results of four "rounds" of testing. Note that each test starts with a trip bankroll of $1000, and I won't go beyond that in losses for that "trial". And that once I hit $2000, I mark that trial as "successful". I may play on, but after that point I consider it "fun" only until I start the next trial on the next trip.

    trip #hands result
    1 1100 $2100
    2 1200 $2060
    3 450 $2007
    4 3000!! $2078

    If you figure 100 hands per hour (that is low, a lot of that is heads-up, and I'm pretty quick, I can play 600 hands an hour on CV Blackjack for example, counting, varying my bet, using BS deviations, etc, with few errors) the first "trip" took 11 hours to double my money, the second trip took 12 hours, the third took 4.5 hours (this was a good result obviously, one of "those" streaks) but the last took 30 hours. I went as low as $600, and even after I broke $1500, I dropped back to under $1000 two or three times. I got within a few dollars of my $2000, only to drop back to $1400, before clawing my way back and breaking $2K finally.

    This was done on several different DD games and one SD that plays 3:2, never playing more than one hour at any one place, although I might leave and come back to a different table or shift or dealer the same day on occasion. I was spreading $5 to $40, or when I had another player or two at the table, I would spread $5-$10-$20-2x$25. I tried to avoid DD games with more than 1-2 other players, playing mainly late night/early morning "graveyard" shifts.

    trial "four" was like "work. Trial "three" was a blast. Way above the expected value for this bet spread. CVCX says $20 per hour is a good number. My four results are $100 per hour twice. $200 per hour once, and $30 per hour for "the beast". Overall the average was $70, which is less than two big bets an hour, not bad and better than what CVCX suggests I should make. Probably means I have a couple of "ugly" sessions in the future of this "experiment by trial" of mine.

    More as the experiment progresses, this is the first time I have tried to keep records this accurate (obviously the # of hands is an estimate based on number of shuffles and number of players, I'm not about to try to count hands as well as cards. :) )

    Also notice there are no "shoe" games so far. I will eventually include some shoe tests, but in general I dislike shoe games. The tables get crowded, the variance is higher as the bet spread has to be higher, and so forth. But my brother is wanting to go play a shoe game soon so I might give that a whirl. Note also that one of these trials does not represent a single "trip". I make an occasional 1-2 day trip when I can, and sometimes make an unexpected "day" trip when visiting family/friends near the MS coast or other locations in MS. The 4.5 hour trial was one trip for sure, this last one was much longer...

    Point of all of that is that (a) counting can (and does) work; (b) the results vary like mad (I have had losing sessons by the score, so my four successful trials is not to be taken as this is always what happens (I double my money). I have seen $1000 shrink to $0 on more than one occasion, I have seen $1000 grow to $2300+ and then shrink to $0 within the last year); (c) if you play that many hands, you are getting within a factor of 10 of the famous "N0" "long-term". If you play pure BS for that long, you will be in the hole big-time. If you play a progression for that long, you will be in a bigger hole. If you play a good counting system, you can _stiill_ end up in a big hole on occasion...
  • one more point. My CVCX sims use 100 hands per hour in predicting a $20 per hour win rate. Since I am playing far faster than this for the most part, my actual expected hourly win rate is probably closer to the range of $30-$40 per hour, so I am really not that far above the "expected win rate" overall...
  • Stainless, enjoyed that last post, thanx a million...

    Speaking of multiple deck games,
    Edward O. Thorp said, "Multiple decks have one big advantage for the player who strikes when the decks are hot. When two decks, or better four decks, go good, they stay good much longer"(Beat The Dealer, 1966 Edition, page 128).

    Bryce Carlson says,"when a shoe finally does go plus, it is likely to stay plus right down to the shuffle"(Blackjack For Blood, 1997 Edition, page 186).
  • surfteq:

    Why is it that Specs Parsons has such a distaste for Humble & Cooper?

    Ans.: what you posted on the top of this page. Basically H&C screwed up on hi-opt II, and got it right.

    I smell a troll.
  • Nickels_n_Bullets, who is Specs Parsons???
  • the shoe issue is two-edged.

    On one hand, yes, when you get a good TC, as the saying goes, The RC tends toward zero, but the TC tends to remain constant. That makes sense when you think about it. So when the TC hits +4 in a 6d shoe, you are going to be +4 for a while in many cases.

    On the other hand, you will not see that +4 shoe very often. In a SD game, the count will go up and down with a single round played. In a DD game, the count can rise and stay up for 3-4-5 rounds. But they happen more frequently.

    I've not seen any difinitive work on that subject, but intuition tells me that overall, I am going to play as many + count hands in DD as I will in SD. They will just be more scattered. That makes team attacks very difficult since by the time you call in your big player, and he makes it to the table (if they even allow entry between shuffles) the count could already be back in the tank...

    I like the SD/DD games as the variance seems to be significantly lower, because I can attack them with smaller spreads. 1-4 works for SD pretty well. 1-8 for DD. 1-20 for 6D. On any single high-count hand in DD I'm risking $40 or maybe 2x$25 if there are other players at the table. That doesn't hurt as much when I get the 20 and the dealer gets the 21 as it does when I am spreading to $100 and see that happen.
  • Nothing but shoe games in the NE corner... with the delightful caveats of S17 and LS. House has 1/3% here.

    Rat... try a 6D S17 DOA DAS LS game with 70% penetration. Basic Strategy ploppy, and a H/L player in and out at -1.
  • Surftec - Regarding your post above. Humble was referring to playing correct basic strategy and/or different count strategies. He was not referring to any bogus strategy like the one you posted that gives the house an additional 1% edge right of the top.

    Nickels - I agree with you. I smell a troll too. Probably a troll and pretender.

    Grifter
  • Grifter,
    Just because my strategy is not the same as yours or others, does not mean that it is "bogus", as you say...it is very effective in SD & DD games.
  • Surftec - "very effective in SD & DD games"??....Wow, that's all I play or ever have played. I'd be interested in knowing the following:

    How effective is it? What is your EV with that strategy when you sit down at a DD game in Downtown LV?

    Grifter
  • Nicklels:

    You didn't specify a bet so I assumed $5. For the Hi-Lo data, I used a canned sim Norm supplies with CVCX, set the penetration to 70% and the spread to 1-20. Out pops $19.08 per hour win rate. For a pure BS player, all it says is "100% risk of ruin". :) I suppose you could sum up all the changes to the house edge based on those rules, and if you figure 100 rounds per hour at 5 bucks a pop, multiply the house edge times $500 to see how much you lose per hour...

    Grifter:

    Nothing but SD/DD? Man after my own heart. I do play a few 6d games from time to time as a sort of "family team effort" but I hate 'em... (the shoe games, not the family. :) )
  • I would limit the spread in real life to 1 to 8 and figure a $25 minimum.

    One more thing to try is checking the following boxes... Don't increase a loss, and don't increase a tie. (Missouri Cover)

    These mods would go far in playing here.
  • Nickels - I can't disagree with your 'Missouri Cover' idea for six deck because I don't know the nitty-gritty of it that well. It sounds reasonable since the count is relatively static.

    However, I can't see it being viable for DD because the count changes so rapidly. Any thoughts on two deck and the Missouri Cover?

    Regards.....Grifter

    SSRat - Like you, I have played 6 deck occasionally with others when it is the only game available, but I try to avoid them.
  • Nickels_n_Bullets said:
    Don't increase a loss, and don't increase a tie. (Missouri Cover)


    If the count calls for it, you better believe I will increase on a loss or increase on a tie. I play 6D shoe games. This past weekend I had a situation where the count was up to +3 and I lost on my 17 to the dealer's 19. A lot of small cards were still coming out in that round hands and we were approaching the end of the shoe. The count rose to a +5 and I increased my bet to a 5 unit bet. I got a total of 10 and the dealer had an ace up. I take my insurance since the count calls for it at +3. The dealer did not have blackjack and I doubled down since the index to do so is +4. I wind up making 20 and the dealer flips over a 7 for a total of 18. Had I chosen not to increase, I would have missed out on 3 units.
  • Nickels:

    1:8 in 6D is thin spreading until you get to green/black betting. It reduces the hourly profit to roughly 1/3 of the 1-20 spread, cutting it to $5 or so for 5-40, or 25 per hour for 25-200. Or 100 per hour for 100-800. My approach for "choosing the spread" is to play and watch, as the bigger the spread, the greater the profit, so long as you don't get "discovered" which will reduce profit to zero at that casino.

    One other general comment. I don't do "cover bets" when the count is at a point where a max bet is out or should be out. That is the EV-maximizing part of the game, and fiddling around with cover there is dangerous and expensive. In DD, using HiLo, I max bet at TC=3. When the TC is 3, I play right by the strategy. If the count drops by 1, and I just won, I might well stay with the max bet on occasion, but it doesn't take a lot of screwing around when a max bet is out to erase an hour's worth of effort in one or two hands.
  • For the most part, Missouri Cover works at all due to the sheer number of cards remaining in the first half-shoe. As jp points out, when the count gets more dynamic at or near the end of a shoe, opportunities slip away, as he correctly states. I asked Rat to discover this using a DD game. Its too dynamic for Missouri Cover to work well... especially when 4 players are at the table. Theres too few rounds of play, and the game's advantage rests upon seizing opportunities. Should he play a 6-decker with favorable rules, IMHO it should be considered early in the shoe. For good methods such as H/L, KO, etc., the first 1/3 shoe is most opportune. For the weak A5 method, full-time employment is recommended.

    H/L should generate 1.5 units per hour, A5 usually generates 1/2 unit using same bet-ramps of 1-2-4-8.

    ps: All this cover bet does is delay raising a bet until you win one at an advantageous score. I do not advocate delaying the reduction of a bet.

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