Is everyone sleeping?????
  • Hey, what happened to all the people posting...?????

    I am going to go play my bad way of playing and betting again today and will post tomorrow how bad I get beat because I don't believe in counting. But then I don't have a book explaining how to do it either... nothing to sell... Just several years of playing low stakes for fun and a small profit..... I'm the guy with the black hat at "Soboba Casino"....
  • unclenorm said:
    Hey, what happened to all the people posting...?????

    I am going to go play my bad way of playing and betting again today and will post tomorrow how bad I get beat because I don't believe in counting. But then I don't have a book explaining how to do it either... nothing to sell... Just several years of playing low stakes for fun and a small profit..... I'm the guy with the black hat at "Soboba Casino"....


    Oh my!!

    I don't count either and sometimes play a progression. Sometimes I actually win and have fun too!!

    I play basic strategy and might even plop down in the seat.

    I'm glad there is someone else that feels the same way about the tone of this board lately!

    Regards,
  • There's nothing wrong with playing progressions, or playing hunches, or flipping a coin to decide playing strategy. But if you want to win, the only viable approach for blackjack is card counting. Nothing else will work, except for using computers which is illegal everywhere. If you play for fun, that's perfectly fine. But most think in terms of "fun" = "winning" and there is only one way to make that happen.

    The "tone" here is simply one of "debunking" mythology such as the utter garbage produced by some authors that "promise" you their progression betting system will break the bank. It will. But not the bank you want to break, - yours -. Just visit Patterson's web site and look at some of his ridiculous statements, then go to wizardofodds.com and look at some of the BS plays Patterson says are wrong. Doubling 11 vs 10. Mike's web site shows the EV for doubling vs just hitting. Do you trust real numbers or a snake-oil salesman selling you a universal cure for all ills?

    Snake-oil salesmen were never held in high regard. Ditto for non-counting system salesmen. The only way to make real money with a progressoin system is to sell it, not use it.
  • stainless steel rat said:
    There's nothing wrong with playing progressions, or playing hunches, or flipping a coin to decide playing strategy. But if you want to win, the only viable approach for blackjack is card counting. Nothing else will work, except for using computers which is illegal everywhere. If you play for fun, that's perfectly fine. But most think in terms of "fun" = "winning" and there is only one way to make that happen.

    The "tone" here is simply one of "debunking" mythology such as the utter garbage produced by some authors that "promise" you their progression betting system will break the bank. It will. But not the bank you want to break, - yours -. Just visit Patterson's web site and look at some of his ridiculous statements, then go to wizardofodds.com and look at some of the BS plays Patterson says are wrong. Doubling 11 vs 10. Mike's web site shows the EV for doubling vs just hitting. Do you trust real numbers or a snake-oil salesman selling you a universal cure for all ills?

    Snake-oil salesmen were never held in high regard. Ditto for non-counting system salesmen. The only way to make real money with a progressoin system is to sell it, not use it.


    I think the point of this thread has just been been proven by your post...

    If I do not count then I will not win, therefore I will not have fun. Give me a break!!

    Your way is not the only way.

    I have won and it was because I was lucky... so what.

    The tone I was talking about is the remarks that are bordering on rude for anyone that does not meet the standards of the great card counters.

    I do not count so I am a "ploppy" for your entertainment.

    I think that the tone of the recent threads has contained comments that many people, myself included, might find offensive.

    Please lighten up.

    Have a nice day.

    Regards
  • Almost forgot to say:

    I am not selling anything!!
  • chuckn said:
    I think the point of this thread has just been been proven by your post...

    If I do not count then I will not win, therefore I will not have fun. Give me a break!!

    Your way is not the only way.

    I have won and it was because I was lucky... so what.

    The tone I was talking about is the remarks that are bordering on rude for anyone that does not meet the standards of the great card counters.

    I do not count so I am a "ploppy" for your entertainment.

    I think that the tone of the recent threads has contained comments that many people, myself included, might find offensive.

    Please lighten up.

    Have a nice day.

    Regards



    I don't believe that anyone is saying that you can't win money if you aren't counting cards. Heck, I see it all the time. I was a ploppy at one time too and I made money. I also lost money - more often then I won. I tried progressions back then, both positive and negative. They all failed in the end. But that is my story.

    There may be those who are luckier than me and can consistently make a profit with progressions. Who knows? But for me, I think I will stick to counting cards since I can see the percentage in it. Mathematically speaking, one will win in the long run when counting cards. This is not so for the progressionist - despite the possibility that a progressionist can win. Then again, anyone sitting at the table can get lucky once in a while. I will continue to trust in the law of large numbers.
  • If nobody won, the games would not last. You can play the game blindfolded and just randomly hit or stand or double, and still win on occasion. But long-term you will take a beating no matter what you do, unless you count. And even then you will take short-term beatings.

    You will notice that you are putting words into my mouth when you imply I said that you can't have fun if you don't win. _most_ people equate winning with fun. But not all. There are lots of things I have done in the past that were fun simply for the doing, not the winning.

    But if winning isn't important, why did you learn BS? Because you can lose just as easily without as with. So there must be _some_ motivation in you to win at the game. And if that is true, then to really win long-term, you know what you have to do. Nothing else will work.

    I don't expect anyone to become a counter, unless they are serious about winning. I have several family members that play BJ. Not a one of them counts cards but me. I hardly hold them in disdain.

    About the only time I have any "rude" type comments is when someone comes along touting some non-counting system that will do nothing but relieve you of your hard-earned money and deliver it to them when you buy their non-working system.

    Progressions don't work. Anyone that has any experience with probability theory can show you exactly why they won't. All you have to do is ask the progression seller how it can be used to beat a coin toss, because that is a perfectly fair game with no house edge at all, far better than most BJ or Craps or Roulette games. If you can't beat a perfectly fair game, you can't beat one tilted toward the house. And progressions can't beat a coin toss.

    If you play BS and enjoy the games, that's great. I did that for several years. Then I decided I wanted to enjoy them "more" and learned to count. I do enjoy them more. :) But trying to convince beginners that they can use money-management techniques to take money from the casinos is simply dishonest. Any BJ site around will tell you that same thing. Yet people still toss their money away on these systems, then toss more money away in the casinos using a faulty system.


    As far as being a "ploppy" that is not an issue with me. My son and wife don't count. I play at the same table with them frequently. A non-counter is not a "ploppy" in my book. A rude, obnoxious, no-clue-about-BS player is a ploppy. A person that complains about every decision made by 3rd base whether it is perfect BS or totally wrong is a ploppy. A person that complains when someone leaves or joins the table mid-shoe because they are "messing up the flow of the cards" is a ploppy. Hopefully you are none of those people.
  • I agree that counting is the only way. I agree that in the long run progressions will lose. I agree that counting short term might lose. I agree that .34% is still in the house favour.

    This thread started out as a light hearted joke about those of us that actually play and might stray from the counting crowd.

    No one attacked anyone, but we were reminded pretty quickly that you must count to win.

    We all know that!!

    I have looked into counting and agree that it is the way to go if you have the large bankroll needed to ride out the losses.

    For the new player to have a chance it is necessary to play perfectly and manage your money. You must practice and make no mistakes. You must set a quit point. We all know this comes before we learn to count.

    I sit with people every session that miss doubles, splits, and have no clue as how to soft double. They look at me strange when I surrender a 15 against an A after they just bought insurance. Half the dealers groan when I hit soft 18 against a 10.

    You need to play in such a way that you never give the house anymore than .34 advantage, if you find that game with good rules.

    I have played many, many hours under good table rules and have won many times. I have played many times all day where it has only cost me a couple hundred minus comps.

    With good rules and the nature of hand shuffled 6 deck games I have seen my fair share of winning streaks even without counting.

    Regards
  • stainless steel rat

    I did misread some of your comments and agree that is not what you said.

    You are right... I like to win.

    I actually pride myself at playing perfect strategy and practice on a daily basis. :D

    I would tell any newcomer that if they want half a chance (or .34) then they should be able to play the difficult mode of the game at this site perfectly without even thinking about it. You must also know the rule variations for the type of game., i.e., surrender.

    I normally do play a simple progression as a tool to raise my bets.
    I agree that in a choppy shoe it will clean you out faster than flat betting.
    It is more for the gambling aspect, i.e., the run of winning hands, that will pay off.

    Regards
  • Thanks for the great post, Stainless! I hope that sums up the feelings of all of us that partake in this fun and challenging (often financially) game of ours.
  • Don't forget, as I have said before, "progressions" are not bad in and of themselves. A counter needs some sort of "cover" so that when he increases his bet, the dealer or pit is not thinking "counter". Doubling after a win when the count goes up is good. Doubling after a loss can mean you are "chasing your loss" which can also be good, if your act has something to support that ("Damn, I'll bet you can't pull a 5 card 21 out of your hat again, I'm going to get my money back.")

    It is just that progressions by themselves can't beat the game. They actually hurt because they increase your average bet, and the house advantage is multiplied by each of your average bets. Since BJ is a -EV game with pure BS only, the bigger a non-counter bets, the bigger the house take from each of his bets, over the long-term.

    There are lots of ways to lose money more quickly.

    1. Play much faster. 3-card poker is a good example. You can blow a grand or two in an hour only betting the table minimum of $10.

    2. Bet bigger. If the house take is 2%, their 2% take will drain your BR quicker if you bet bigger. At $5, they will take a dime from every bet. At $50, it is a dollar per bet, at $500 it is $10 per bet.

    3. play a game with a large -EV. BJ with BS is about -.5 roughly. Craps is triple that. 3-card poker is double that. Forget the other games like Carib Stud, let it ride, etc. Blackjack without following correct BS is nowhere near -.5, and Patterson's advice is nowhere near perfect BS, so that if you follow _his_ system not only do you increase the house edge, you increase your average bet size, which will break you twice as fast as if you only used a progression, or only used his broken basic strategy.
  • i know counting is good.. but how do u counter automatic machines?
  • What kind of machines? Be specific.............
  • Off Topic:

    Craps with Double odds with or against the shooter without proposition bets, Has an EV of about -0.8. If you play single odds about -1. If you play 5x odds (6x on 9 & 5) the EV is about -0.5. Its a better game than you think without those horrible props in the center.

    Also the points 6 and 8 are the next best bet at EV-1.5. After that the odds against are overwhelming. PM me if you'd like a detailed answer.
  • Nickels - What is your source for those numbers?

    I have always used -0.84 for single odds, -0.57 for double odds, and -0.33 for 5x.

    Grifter
  • Its based upon a strategy of using pass with odds coupled with betting on 6 and /or 8 for 1 unit. IMHO these are the only bets to make on the table.

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