WT Progression Thought
  • What I like doing is bringing $1000 and playing the Walter Prog and trying my luck... have you guys done this before? Sometimes I get quick runs and find myself up $4000 and sometimes the $1000 goes real fast but what do you think of doing this instead of bringing 40x table min? Seems much funner since anyway bj has many streaks therefore I feel this is a good strategy... am I wrong?

    What you think?

    .Liezel.
  • What is your betting string?.......or your base unit?
  • YEP-
    I HAVE USED wALTERS' PROGRESSION MANY TIMES AND OFTEN DONE QUITE WELL WITH IT-AND IT IS FUN,ALOT EASIER ON THE BRAIN THAN COUNTING,AND OFTEN VERY PROFITABLE. LATELY I TEND TO USE IT IF MY BANKROLL ISN'T LARGE ENOUGH TO COUNT WITH. IN FACT LAST WEEK I WENT TO THE CASINO 3 DAYS RUNNING USING HIS PROGRESSION AND WON ALL 3 TIMES-NOW THANKS TO THE PROGRESSION AND THE BLACKJACK GODS I HAVE ENOUGH BANKROLL TO COUNT AGAIN. BEST OF LUCK TO ALL.
    PROG
  • Grifter, my betting string is starting at 100-150-200-250 is this strategy to risky or is it okay?
  • Liezel said:
    Grifter, my betting string is starting at 100-150-200-250 is this strategy to risky or is it okay?

    - No, it is not "too risky" in my opinion.....Walt's progression is a very conservative one.
    - Variance is slightly higher than flat betting (because of the chop effect), but not nearly as high as counting.
    - I'm sure you know that the WT Prog will not improve your EV, but it will not lower it either. Generally, you should expect to have small losses, with an occasional big win.
    - Something to think about.....I have had good success using it as a cover with a count.

    Regards.....Grifter
  • Good advice Grifter, I have used it when I get distracted and lose the count. Now I realize that it has the added benefit as a cover.
  • Thanks Grifter.

    Does anyone know the odds of winning at least a certain amount of % using the WT in my above example? I'll have $1k bankroll and want to start using 100-150-etc.... why is this not risky to do eventhough 10x is all I have? 10 losses in a row and I'm wiped out! Also, how come I shouldnt' expect big losses but only SMALL losses but big wins? That sounds better to me :)

    .liezel.
  • Liezel- How does 10 small loses compared to one big win sound to you?
    While this is just an off the wall example, it is somewhere close to reality.

    A flat bet player and you will have different patters/variance over time,
    but your win/loss rates will be very close to the same as sims have
    proven. You will lose a great deal more money than the flat bet player
    because your average bet is higher. If his bet is flat at 100, your's is
    the same at 150 and that is why progressions are a bad way to play the
    game. Your BR is extremely high risk......at a min it should be 6K
  • You must use the quit point. This is a key part of Walter's Prog.

    Four losses in a row and you walk. Walter did say you could hang around a little longer off the top of the shoe.

    I agree progressions are a long term loser.

    I have used them and won big on occasion
  • Ray, 6K??? That's 60x the amount I'm playing!! I never heard of having to start with that much playing any type of gambling... and didn't Grifter say $1000 with 100-150-200-250-250 it's okay? FOr one, I dont have $6000 to burn, but $1000 I can manage hehe :)

    Thanks for your help guys, I was also wondering where I can find the chance of going broke with $1000 at $100 table as opposed to doubling it or winning $4000, which is doubling someones recommended 40x bankroll at a $100 table.

    Thanks again.

    -.LieZel.-
  • Liezel - My mistake and sorry if I mislead you!!!........I only meant that WT Progression wasn't too risky to play, even at the $100 level......BUT you have to have the bankroll to back it up; and Ray's suggested $6K is a sensible one.

    Sorry I missed your BR amount.........With $1,000 you should be playing it at about $10-$15-$20-$25.

    Grifter
  • Most experienced BJ players will play a typical 4 hour BJ session at
    (2) SD money. What do we mean by two SD money? It is the amount
    of BR needed to have something like 90+ probability of not going
    broke in X time. In the following example I'll make some assumptions
    based on the example given by Liezel:

    Play.......WT Progression 100-150-200-250
    Session......4 hours
    Average bet .......150
    Hands per hr. at $100 table.....80 (not a full table)
    Total hands =.........4 * 80= 320

    SD= 1.1 * ave bet(150) * sq root of hands played(320)
    SD= 1.1 * 150 * 18
    SD= $2970.00..........(2)SD=$2970.00 * 2= $5940 0r 6K as described
    above.

    You will still lose money, but you have a 90+ chance of not going broke
    in the 4 hr session. Proper BR is a must.....
  • But you guys that seems toooooooooooooooo much for such little amount of action. $10 table for having $1000? That seems too much to have and $400 is already 40x the table min. which is the recommended neway rite? Anyway like I said in my 1st post.... I like doing it at $100 a hand with the walter prog cuz I can get quick wins even with only $1000 and winning streaks can always and easily occur... i know the amount isn't that much but it beats dragging down in a casino for several hours.......the way im doing it is for a quick punch! You know what i mean? hehehe :)

    -LieZeL- ^_^
  • Liezel - The recommended guideline for a session bankroll is not 40x the table minimum.......It is 40x your average bet. In your case above that would be $150 x 40 = $6,000.

    Grifter
  • Grifter can say things in five words.....it takes me a page. The best
    chance for Liezel to double his money based on his strong risk tolerance
    is to walk up to the table and bet the $1000 on one hand. It's almost
    50/50, actually 47.5.
  • Speaking more on progressions, I understand no "system" will overcome the house ege. However, I being mostly a BS player, had a favorable outcome this week with 10-15-20-25. I was on a 2D, $10 minimum table with DAS, RSA, DOA. The tables remained full of players. I was able to only experience a couple of winning streaks where I reached the $25. Most of the time it was difficult just to win two hands in a row. It's frustrating when you are only winning the 10's and losing the 15's. But overall, it was a good day. After a $100 buy-in, and experiencing a rollercoaster ride, I finished up $500. I did catch some heads-up play the 2nd morning, but that's when things turned and I knew it was time to go home.
  • Sigh but that takes too long!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And like I said I dont like to spend several hours juggling around! Also, I dont understand the deal with having enough bankroll.... BTW RAY I AM A GIRL!I've seen too many people play at $100 or more and I've never seen them have $6000 or $600 at a $10 table... and those people do fine... is it really that big of a risk that I am doing?
  • Here's a simple test.

    1. Do you count? If not _any_ BJ risk analyzer will tell you that your risk of ruin is 100% no matter whether you bet $100 per round or you bet a penny per round.

    2. If you were a great counter, and played at a 6D game where you were spreading $50-800 (a minimum spread for a 6D game) your ROR is over 90%. 9 of every 10 times you play you will go bust. Drop that to a 1-4 (50-200 spread) and your ROR goes up slightly to 92+ %.

    Ray is correct, if you bet at that level, you have to have enough money to get you through those common losing streaks, or you will not survive to get to the winning streaks.

    For the non-counter, the plan is to find a shoe game, with the slowest dealer around, full table, and bet the minimum each hand. That minimizes the losses. All a progression does is increase your average bet, which increases your loss rate.
  • Liezel- And a very brave girl at that.....If you're just playing for fun
    and are loose as a goose, can afford the loss that may come your way,
    go to it. What does it matter what I are anyone else thinks? We don't
    pay the rent...............................
  • Ray I didn't appreciate that statement loose as a goose! Dont be rude. If your wife/girlfriend is we dont have to know by you calling me that... Have some decency! :roll: :roll:

    Anyway, back 2 the topic at hand... I've seen several people play with much less then $1000 at a simple $10 table and do just fine. I just think the recommended amount is simply too high. Sure I may lose the $1000 quickly but are you forgetting I might also DOUBLE TRIPLE OR QUADRUPLE that $1000 too?

    -Li3z3|
  • I think part of the problem is that "most" of us are card counters. And we realize that if we are playing at a $10 table, that is not going to be our typical bet. For example, in a 6D shoe, my big bet would be $200 at a $10 min table (1-20 spread). As you might imagine, it is easy to drop 800 bucks on one round. 4 splits, or one split and 2 doubles, or any mix of that, and you have _big_ bucks riding. And if you lose, and you only have $1000, you are not going to play much longer. And if you don't play, you aren't going to be able to recoup that big loss.

    I played a very good DD game last week and lost over $600 in 30 minutes, spreading $5-$40. If I were betting with a $25 min bet, that would have been a $3000 beating in 30 minutes.

    Now if you are just flat-betting, or playing a minimal progression where you will never bet 8x or 20x your min bet, such a bankroll is not that important. But for a card counter that realizes that the flux happens mainly on big counts and big bets, a substantial bankroll is the only way to win. Because you can't bounce back once you are broke.

    If the name of the game is comps, then anything will work. But remember, playing _perfect_ BS, the risk of ruin is 100%, period. Because the basic game of 21 is a negative expectation game. Hoping to win small before losing big seems illogical, sorry.
  • Liezel- If was not my intent to be curt and rude....heaven forbid that I do
    that. Loose as a goose to us old poker and pool players means ready to
    gamble or in sports ready for the challenge. I'm sorry if I offended you, unintentional as it was.
  • Let’s clear the air with some facts…..
    - For the non-counter, flat betting is not the only way to play….Conservative progressions like Walter’s, Dahl, New York, etc. are viable alternatives if you are a recreational player who does not want to count.
    - Progressions like the ones mentioned do not increase your loss rate. They play at the same expected value as flat betting.

    I am not advocating progressions or dissing them, just trying to dispel the implication that anyone who does not count is a “dummy”……I would estimate that less than 2% of the members of this forum are actual counters; and most are here simply to learn more about all forms of blackjack……..Including questions about how to play without counting.

    Trivia Question for SSR – What percentage of the total blackjack players at any given time in Las Vegas are actually playing with a count?

    Grifter
  • Grifter said:
    Let’s clear the air with some facts…..
    - For the non-counter, flat betting is not the only way to play….Conservative progressions like Walter’s, Dahl, New York, etc. are viable alternatives if you are a recreational player who does not want to count.
    - Progressions like the ones mentioned do not increase your loss rate. They play at the same expected value as flat betting.

    I am not advocating progressions or dissing them, just trying to dispel the implication that anyone who does not count is a “dummy”……I would estimate that less than 2% of the members of this forum are actual counters; and most are here simply to learn more about all forms of blackjack……..Including questions about how to play without counting.

    Trivia Question for SSR – What percentage of the total blackjack players at any given time in Las Vegas are actually playing with a count?

    Grifter


    Thanks Grifter,

    Well said :)
  • "Progressions like the ones mentioned do not increase your loss rate"

    Sims of various basic players (flat, flat with quit points, progressions)
    all come in at -0.567, -0.577, -0.579,etc per $100 bet.

    The only real difference is the money loss is much higher for the
    progession player(due to a higher ave bet)


    But, what about the very short term. Can you apply the same EV?
    In my opinion the answer is yes, but only in theory. In the short term
    random chance(luck,SD,etc) is a very big consideration. We all know
    that given the HA and some BR we can determine our chances for
    some period of playing time. I think in the short term our chances are
    very close to a coin toss 50/50 or 47.5/52.5.

    On page 126 in Renzey's Bluebook II he talks about luck under set
    conditions and even when we are the underdog winning is not out of
    the question.
  • Where I play the rules are good... 6 deck, S17, DOA, RS4, DAS, SUR.

    This is around a -.35

    You must play perfect basic strategy. I mean perfect...no doubles for less, no chickening out on any of the double and split opportunities, and using surrender... playing your soft hands correctly... making sure you are using the correct strategy for the game your playing.

    You can have a lot of fun and actually win quite often.

    Learn how to play!!!!

    Chuckn
  • Grifter: Very small percentage. I only recognized 3 counters playing in Vegas for 8 days. Including a half-day at Laughlin. So yes, the number is small. Considering the hours I played, well over 30 (not counting all the scouting and looking), that is a pretty small number. I will add that I didn't play much in the way of shoe games, where the big-bucks counters often hang out.

    I don't believe non-counters are "dummies" at all. But I'd like to see 'em become counters and play with a real edge.

    BTW, I slightly disagree with your progression statement. A progression will definitely increase a player's average bet over flat-betting the table min. And an increase in average bet increases the loss rate by definition since the game expectation is unchanged. If by loss "rate" you mean the number of hands you win or lose, I agree. But I generally compute "rate" as EV * average bet, and anything that raises the latter raises the rate.


    I hope I didn't sound condescending to anyone. It wasn't intended. I just want to see people walk into a casino and walk back out with more than they arrived with. Yes I know that without all the non-counters, the games would dry up quickly. But 99.999% of the blackjack-playing public will never visit a blackjack message board. I'd like to see our .001% of the players become winners. :)
  • And the casinos still worry about AP's effecting their bottom line! What a joke. I believe all the back offs, heat, and such are mostly power plays, anyway. Don't THEY know, as well as you and I, the small percentage of counters, and even good counters out there, can't hurt them?
  • Remember that "self-perpetuity" is an important concept. If the pit can convince management that "those damned counters are really dropping our hold" then they appear to be more important to the bottom line if they are supposedly "skilled at catching counters." Griffin operates exactly the same way. People will spend a great deal of money defending against a grossly over-stated threat, if they are convinced that the threat is real...
  • Liezel: I also like a $1000 starting bankroll, but use a $50/75/100/125 progression with a 4-loss quit point. Often play 2 hands when I'm on a streak. This level gives me enough action to make my toes tingle, but won't kill me if I hit a bad streak. You might want to give it a try.
    I recently used this system at Casino Windsor, sitting next to a friend who is an excellent counter. We both won a ton of money (well, maybe several pounds of money) in the first hour. We then hit a losing shoe, and I quit after 4 consecutive losses. He stayed at the table and lost back most of his winnings... different styles for different types of players.
    The next night I won a small amount, and he won a bundle with the count, but his average bet was about 5 times my bet.
    Also, nothing wrong with being a "loose goose"... I'm one!!
  • Walter,
    Is there any advantage or disadvantage considering the number of decks? My local casino offers double deck and 6-deck with good rules. Just wondering if you have a preference.
  • PJ- Just in case Walter don't come back for a while......He told me a yr
    or two ago that in single and DD you don't have enough rounds between
    the shuffle for streaks to develop. Thus 6 deck is better.
  • Thanks, Ray. I was thinking there was some advantage and that makes sense to me. I have been dabbling with progressions a while, but after playing regularly two or three years I am considering learning advantaged techniques. I plan to practice an unbalanced count and get confident with that.
  • You see, I thought that playing with $1000 betting $100 was fine... although WT himself didn't agree with $100 he did say that he likes betting starting $50 and that is only 13 1/3 times the average so what do you guys who suggested $6000 - Ray, Grifter have to say about this? Is he (the author) risking so much by only playing with 13x his average bet?

    ~L|eZeL~
  • I think there may be a misunderstanding with buy in vs BR. If you
    are betting $50 you can buy in at various amounts. This is not critical,
    but your overall session BR is critical. When Walter says he may play
    as he indicated, you can be sure that his BR is in relation to his risk.
  • Well I disagree because if it were as important as you and Grifter make it seem then surely the INVENTOR of the progression would have something to say about that... he said nothing about suggesting or requiring a certain amount so that tells me that it isn't very important to implement! Am I wrong?

    -~Lie>e1!-~
  • YES- But lets wait and let Walter tell you..............
  • Liezel said:
    Well I disagree because if it were as important as you and Grifter make it seem then surely the INVENTOR of the progression would have something to say about that... he said nothing about suggesting or requiring a certain amount so that tells me that it isn't very important to implement! Am I wrong?

    Yes, you are mistaken. I agree with Ray that Walter was talking about "buy-in", not "bankroll". And the INVENTOR of the progression does have something to say about it. On page 163 of Walter's book he states, "....I recommend that your bankroll be at least 20 times (preferably 40 times) as much as your minimum bet for each hour that you intend to play."

    Therefore, for a four hour session with $100 minimum bet:
    - Walter T. MINIMUM: $100 * 20 * 4 = $8,000 Bankroll
    - Walter T. PREFERRED: $100 * 40 * 4 = $16,000 Bankroll

    That said, and with no disrespect to Walt, I would still be comfortable with the $6,000 bankroll Ray and I recommended.

    Regards....Grifter
  • Decided to "gamble it up" using Walter's progression last night.

    I used 50,75,100,125. I used the four loss quit point... I would always start back at 50 for a new shoe and reset my loss counter. In other words I would treat each new shoe as if I just sat down.

    Anyway... Lost 24 units (1200) over about 3 hours of table time split up over 3 different pits. :shock:

    As of today I think I will add some time to my practice sessions learning KISS III on CVBJ :)
  • Liezel: I think it's important to distinguish between "Risk of Ruin" -- chances of going broke in a session -- and money management techniques. I usually gamble on "day boats" that go on 4-5 hour cruises off the coast of Florida. I bring $1,000 in cash for the cruise, because I'm not willing to lose more than this for one night's entertainment. If I bust out early, I play 25 cent video poker, etc. But often I need no more than a $200 buy-in, and play on winnings for the entire cruise. Losses are limited to $1000, and profits have been as much as $11,000 for a single session. On many occasions the $1000 bank didn't last for the entire trip, but the majority of the time I had enough "action" to satisfy me.
    So it's your call... if you want to play with full knowledge of potential loss, you'd better have a much larger bankroll than $1,000.
  • Walter – Nothing you said above changes anything. It does not matter if you choose to put a personal stop loss on your individual cruises, because those individual cruises are cumulative.

    This fact remains……If you want to be protected from risk of ruin with your progression using a $100 minimum bet over four hours of play (consecutive or cumulative) you need a minimum bankroll of between $6,000 (Ray/Grifter calcs) and $8,000 (your published minimum).

    Grifter
  • Guys I see what your saying but $6000-8000 just seems too much for $100 table... Mr. Thomason what do you think? I may have $1000 to blow but not 6-8 hahahaha :( Anyway so if I have $1000 I'm MUCH safer off playing 50-75-100-125 and lasting 4-5 hours like WT said eventhough my bf has gotten up $6000 starting at $100 and also lost it all once before in only 15 minutes?

    And again how come I never see people at the casino having sufficient bankroll to even play at $10 table and much less $100 table??!?!?!?

    Confused,

    ~LieZeL~ :(
    [color]
  • You play at the wrong places. I see people buy in for $1000-$2000 at $100 min tables all the time. I _rarely_ play at a $100 table, because as a counter, spreading _greatly_ increases my ROR.

    Arnold posted a sim somewhere in the past that clearly showed that over 100 sessions, a counter should expect to come out ahead almost all of the time. But in this sim, there was a period of 17 consecutive sessions where the counter was playing out of a hole, that is he had lost and continued to lose/win over 17 consecutive sessions, where he never got back to his original bankroll. Eventually he did of course. But these long losing streaks overall can be killers. And if you don't have the bankroll to keep playing, you can't be a long-term winner since the short-term will, on occasion, totally wipe you out. And if you can't come up with more money to continue playing, you are just stuck...

    That's where ROR, Kelly betting, etc comes into play, to prevent you from reaching a point so low that you are out of action before you are able to recover from a loss streak...

    You can play any limit you want, with any session bankroll you want, but if you are not careful, you will go bust almost every time and no matter how well you play/count, you can't win if you can't plunk down a bet. :)

    CVCX is the way to see this, and CVBJ has a good set of calculators to help you figure out what you need to play at some min bet level..
  • Grif -- A little nitpicking... Although the cruises are cumulative, my $1,000 bank WILL reduce my overall risk of ruin, because in those sessions that bust out early I've removed myself from the game and reduced my risk of ruin to zero. If my lifespan were infinite, the cumulative results would apply, but the fact that I've removed myself from risk of ruin reduces my long-term potential loss. There's only so many sessions in a year, and only so many years left to play.
    I totally agree with your numbers, but must I have a 100% chance of staying in action at the tables? Could I be happy with a 50-50 chance of not losing? And would it require less bankroll to achieve this goal?
    I think confusion always surfaces when we apply theoretical infinity to short-term practical considerations.
  • You can give yourself a good chance of winning at the table or be like
    95% of all players and give yourself little or no chance. If every single
    player played perfect BS and came to the casino with the correct BR,
    blackjack would soon fade into history. The profit margin for corporate
    America would be too small..........Ray
  • WT, did you get my message? Let me know so I may send it again if nec. thanks.
  • Hello?? ANYBODY HERE??? :shock: :idea:

    :arrow: ~LieZeL~

  • I responded two weeks ago... Did you receive it?
  • No I didn't... sorry can you do it again? I haven't gotten anything from you in a long time... please send again, thanks. I sent you a PM.

    ~LieZeL~

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