Question: 8 deck games.
  • Ok guys... yesterday I went to Atlantic Shitty to play some blackjack. I have been practicing for a few weeks now how to count down 6-8 decks. Yesterday I played an 8 deck game and kept up with it fine for the most part. The lowest my count ever got on an 8 deck game using my K.O. method was -8. Otherwise my count hovered between -20 and -28 all day for 3 hours. When my key count was "favorable" (hahaha) I was hardly winning any hands. All my good hands came when I was flat betting when the count was horrible.

    Is that just a bad day at the tables or is 8 deck just not beatable even if you can count it down? The table rules were good: bj pays 3:2, DAS, dealer stands on all 17's, and the penetration seemed to be ok too. The people playing at the table that where playing for fun were the ones winning, while I am sitting here counting and not winning at all. How frustrating!!!!
    :evil:
  • Yes, it was just a bad day. And this kind of thing has happened to all of us.

    I've spent whole afternoons where the count never really went anywhere, and playing 6 instead of 8 decks, it should have had more of an opportunity to. (More decks per hour.)

    Counting and losing: Once during a high count (more than +4 KO) I was confidently expecting at least a 20. All the other players at the table, and the dealer, got 20s, and I got a 15. Just like you, I thought since I was the one going to all the trouble to count, why should I get the 15? Welcome to the casino.

    Hammered at a high count: Just last Sunday at a high count (again more than +4) I had two hands of $50 dollars each. Don't remember what the first hand was, but on the second hand I confidently doubled my A,5 and caught a 6. But I didn't care because the dealer had a 6 up and was sure to bust at a high count, right? So he flips over a 7, and then hits it with an 8. Time for me to go home!

    Yes, it's frustrating, but keep on playing, and you will definitely have things go your way at some point. Those are the times that make it all worthwhile.
  • Here's another from last weekend. Played about 20 hours total, started with my usual $1000 trip B/R, saw it climb to 2600+, back to 1500, up to 2300, finished at 1450.

    This was a group of DD games, spreading 5-40... EV is about $20 per hour, I ended right on that, but notice that if you look at it negatively, I dropped from 2600 to 1500, back to 2300 and back down to 1450. Big swings. On that 2600 to 1500 swing, I saw TCs of +10 and better, and almost _every_ hand I was getting stiffs and the dealer was getting the 21's and 20's... Over and over and over. Losing $40 a pop drains a b/r like a rocket, playing mostly heads-up...

    It just goes with the territory...
  • Ok, there are ALOT of things we need to cover quickly. First, yes, it is very plausible to beat an 8 deck shoe, though definitely more difficult that a hand-held game, or a smaller shoe.

    Taking into account Atlantic City rules, (early surrender, double after splits, dealer stands on soft 17, and insurance) <-- someone please tell me if these are wrong, but I think they're correct.<br />
    I'll give you 4 possible scenarios, assuming you have 75% penetration.

    1- Heads up, you vs. dealer, playing a 1-8 spread, your Snyder Profit Index is at a sizable 78%. Anything above 50% is a good table, worth spending your money on.

    2- same situation with a 1-12 spread would be an 82%

    3- With 2-4 players at the table, you're looking at a 67% with a 1-8 spread

    4- a 71% with a 1-12 spread.

    As far as I'm concerned, an atlantic city shoe game is VERY beatable. If you have a small bankroll, under about 15,000 you might consider wonging, or table hopping. (Playing only when the count is favorable) The only downside, is that you can't play headsup when table hopping. Also, don't forget to camoflauge your play when table hopping.


    BTW, what counting system did you say you were using?
  • Linda (and others)-

    I was using the K.O. method. I did very well using it in 2D games in Vegas and took it steps further by practicing 6 and 8 deck counting at home.

    Those rules you mention are correct, except they don't let you surrender in Atlantic City.

    I am going by the numbers in my K.O. book for an 8 deck shoe:
    IRC: -28, Keycount: -16.

    According to one of my newsletters from looking at the list of casinos, penetration in Atlantic City ranges from 1.5 - 2.0. So it isn't that great no matter where you play.

    My bank roll right now is small since I am beginning and cant afford to shell out thousands of dollars. My BR is usually around $1000. The majority of the low min. tables in A.C. are $10. And I am solo, don't have the benifit of gathering a team in A.C. because none of my friends where I live know how to count lol. So, it's just me and my own BR.

    A friend of mine suggested wonging in and out, but who wants to stand there all day when you only might catch a good count on an 8 deck game once every 2 or more hours if you are lucky enough to see it. An 8 deck game usualy takes 20 minutes (or longer depending on the pace) to play out.

    You (and others) seem very knowledgable and experienced on 8 deck play, so I am open to any info or suggestions or comments. If it's beatable then I wanna learn how to beat it.


    Thanx!
  • How you will do for any playing session(shoes) will come down to how you
    do on 6-12 large bets. The closer that you can get to playing just those
    large bets the better. In shoe games you should not "play all" and that
    is just common sense. The concept of playing all in any shoe game should
    be dismissed. If I could bet max (count justified) I would do just that.

    In any shoe game, you are playing at a disadvantage for such extended
    times that the prospect of winning in a play all strategy is close to zero.
  • 3367:

    Please tell me you made a mistake when you said the key count for 8-deck is -16!
  • esarem51 said:
    3367:

    Please tell me you made a mistake when you said the key count for 8-deck is -16!


    Yes I did make a mistake. Checked the book again...The Key Count using K.O. for 8 deck is -6, not -16. Thanx for pointing the mistake out.
  • I just got back from another day of play at Winstar, in Oklahoma. The only shoe games they play there are 8-deck games, with about 70% penetration and a $10 min. I ended up tripling up in a day of play, going from $600 in chips to $1800 in about 2 1/2 hours.

    A few things that I've learned about shoe games.

    You need to play a BIG spread to win in these games, 1-12 or 1-16 works best. I've been using a balanced counting system, but I feel that it's important to note that your true edge is MUCH more important than the actual count. You should make your betting decisions based on your percent advantage over the house.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The way to find your each counting system will differ, but i'll include a few.
    Hi-Lo/ Hi-Lo Lite = the count/twice the number of decks left to play (meant to be calcluated every half deck)
    Red Seven = your count/ twice the # of decks left to play in shoe (calculate every half deck)
    Zen Count = count/ four times the number of decks left to play (every quarter deck played)

    These will give you your percent advantage over the house. As you probably know, basic strategy cuts the house advantage to about 1/2% above the player. Any time you have more than 1% advantage over the house, bet large.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Shoe game counts rarely go up, and usually do towards the end of the shoe, but the thing is that since it's such a large amount of decks, the count has to be much higher than it would in a hand-held or single deck game for you to bet high.

    They had automatic shufflers here, but if they hand shuffle where you are, a basic form of shuffle tracking can greatly increase your odds---
    If the count is ridiculously high, say +14 or more at the end of the shoe, odds are there are alot of high cards in the unplaid portion of the shoe, also known as the slug. The thing to do is follow the slug as it's shuffled into the deck, and know when it's going to come out.

    Anyway, just bet the minimum table bet and play with good basic strategy and a decent counting system, i'd reccomend the zen system by Snyder.
  • Lina:

    There is NO surrender at AC casinos. That early surrender rule was used BRIEFLY in the early 1980's. Since then its NO surrender at all. This makes the game very stagnant. IMHO, for all the other rules allowed its still an OK game as compared to most games out west.

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