Because he hasn't got on the new board I'll have to talk for SLD, he stands by very strongly on his modified Dahl progression and adamently defends his win rate. Blackjack is a long run game but right now on the progression I have been using I have had more than the 63% overall win vs lose trip too, but, and this is a big but, the times I have lost have been bigger money loser days than my wins, so over all a % doesn't mean much unless you just like to walk out of the casino a winner, money talks and if you are talking about money I'm about 25 units ahead over my last 6 days at the casino which at the level I play is not much for the high rollers and only just above twice my average buy in so I'm still very vulnerable to a bad day. I hope I can recognize that bad day while I'm having it and use discipline to quit early. But for me the point is I'm competing, and using a progression I have a chance to really have a good day over just slowly getting a few chips over my buy in by flat betting. What I'm saying basicly is that I agree with both Mr Renzey AND Mr Thomason, you are not going to get anywhere in BJ flat betting, you have to progress to the next levels, the first is golden rule is Discipline, then get to the tables and use that with a well thought out progression. Than play enough where you understand the 'card game and odds' element enough to start playing indices such as the Mag 7 hands, hand composition plays, and looking for opportunities to buy into other hands. and then if your are good enough get to counting. If you can't ever get to that level you should still be a strong player no matter what, strong enough to enjoy yourself at the table and in my opinion, the progression is a major step for the average person who wants to try casino blackjack to get to point where he can finally really have the possibility of an enjoyable BJ experiance.

Zebra, how long have you been playing with that progression and how successful are you? What's the win % for you??

Also, did you mean 1.5% instead of 1.6%?

The problem I see with your progression is losing the initial 3x bet CONSISTENTLY. Even if you stop after 4 times that's already 12x that you lossed!!! Seems good, *IF* of course you can eliminate that chance of losing 4 IN A ROW, right from the get-go, you know what im saying?

Very nice, DD. I hope she was playing max coins!

What is Dahl's progression? I've got to buy some BJ books one of these days.

i am up 252 units since 7/3 -- coming up ahead 11 out of 15 sessions -- playing down to my loss limit three times -- and through it (way through it) once -- 7/3 is when i started tracking this system exclusively -- i used it some before that but not much and i mixed my systems so i can't absolutely say anything prior to 7/3. of course, i can't get away from the 4 hand loser -- but as i say i have had good luck so far. i use a $25 unit so i use a multiple of 1.6 ($40) rather than a multiple of 1.5 ($37.50) for convenience.

Thanks, Bug.

What is the advantage of doing a 1x, 1x, 1.5x, 1.5x, etc. type progression over a 1x, 1.5x, 2x, 2.5x (or even a 1x, 2x, etc.)? In other words, does the slower progression help somewhat (or do they just slow the losses)? I'd think a more aggressive progression would yield better results since you're a lot more likely to hit a 3-4 hand winning streak than you are to hit a 7-8 hand streak.

I know the stats say progressions are long-term losers, but they intrigue me for some reason.

Walter Thomason said:

I've been using the four step positive progression explained in my book for about five years (over 100,000 hands of play) and am well ahead of the casino. Basically, it's a 2/3/4/5/5/5 etc. positive progression with a 4 loss quit point.

That's 4 consecutive losses, correct? If that happens, do you quit altogether or just find a new table?

Thanks, Grifter. Any idea how that translates at a table with a CSM?

Buffarino said:

Thanks, Grifter. Any idea how that translates at a table with a CSM?

Just a wild guess, here, but Grifter may not have played at a whole lot of CSMs just yet. :) :wink: Buffarino, I don't believe Walt specifically addresses that in his book. Obviously, there's no shoe to be finished with a CSM. And if the rationale for stopping play is the rest of the shoe is looking bad, then you can't say that with a CSM. But if the rationale for stopping play is "for whatever reason, I am in a losing streak", then I guess you'd stop and move to another table with a friendlier CSM.

Walter, do doubles and splits affect it? Or nothing does... just increase a max of 1 unit on each win? What's the name of it? Also, if I'm not mistakened it's: 2-3-4-5-5-5 which is your betting scheme right? So... if you keep winning you'd just remain on 5 until you lose? Would you ever drop back down to 2 units to consolidate your winnings instead of losing a big 5 units or...?

Hah, how clever, Ted. You posted exactly the same time I did so I was like "what? where'd my post go?!"...

Anyway, a "net win" is the positive result after a split or a double, or even >1 split or double. For example: I win split 1 hand and lose split 2 hand, the result would be a PUSH because the win and loss cancel out. Lets look at another example: On one of my splits I had a DD (double down) opportunity and I won that (winning THAT split as well), but lost my other split. Well, what we have are 2 wins (one from the Double & Split) and 1 loss. 2 beats 1 so the NET RESULT is a win. You can also look at it on the perspective of mathematics. 2/3 = 67% = a majority or >50% so the result is positive. It must yield >50% and not = 50% because 50% would be the % of a PUSH, since it's a draw or tie with the dealer and that would not be enough to warrant an increase in bet size.

There are much tougher examples to determine the net win, though. How about we look at this scenario:

I got dealt three 8's (assuming you're a flawless BS player we'd have 3 split-hands of 8's), than the 2nd card on those three 8's were: 3, 3, and 10 giving me 2 immediate DD opportunities since the dealer's top is 2. So with you doubling down on both of those 11's and having 3 splits, you already have 5x the units you began with (1 x 5 = 5). As a result, you end up WINNING 2, Losing 1, and Pushing 2 (dont worry if these aren't realistic results just follow the example) so what would be the net result?
Well, following my above example, we'd have: 2 (2 wins) + 0 (1 loss) + 1 (2 pushes * .5) for 3/5 (count pushes as draws just like in CHESS for 1/2 point). Well, 3/5 = 60% and 60% is >50% so we'd have a NET win after all of that.

I learned finding these net wins the hardway when I'm actually in the casino cuz these seemingly simplistic calculations NOW as opposed to the complicated determination at the actual casino can mess you up but this should more than clear up your net win queries.

Yeah, I knew what it was, I was explaining it to Ted.

What about doubles and splits? I was wondering if you skip any steps for those.

Also, is there a reason it stops @ 5 units and nothing higher? What is the name of this positive progression?

Buffarino said:

Very nice, DD. I hope she was playing max coins!
What is Dahl's progression? I've got to buy some BJ books one of these days.

Yes, she was playing max coins. The bet of 5 coins paid back 4000 of them. :D
Definitely get Walter's and Fred's books. I think someone's answered your question about the Dahl progression.

Desert Dog said:

[quote=Buffarino]Very nice, DD. I hope she was playing max coins!
What is Dahl's progression? I've got to buy some BJ books one of these days.

Yes, she was playing max coins. The bet of 5 coins paid back 4000 of them. :D
Definitely get Walter's and Fred's books. I think someone's answered your question about the Dahl progression.[/quote]

Very nice, indeed. Yes, the question has been answered.

Now I've got another. I'm heading to LV in a couple weeks. Do you know if any of the main strip casinos offer $10 tables with regular 6 deck shoes? I'd love to avoid the CSM's if I can, but I also don't want to have to go off the strip to do it. That's a big part of the Vegas experience for me.

Buffarino said:

Very nice, indeed. Yes, the question has been answered.

Now I've got another. I'm heading to LV in a couple weeks. Do you know if any of the main strip casinos offer $10 tables with regular 6 deck shoes? I'd love to avoid the CSM's if I can, but I also don't want to have to go off the strip to do it. That's a big part of the Vegas experience for me.

You won't need to go off the strip. Most of the tables on the strip are still hand shuffled six deck shoes and $10 minimums are quite common. :) My favorite is Paris. Watch out for 8 decks at Bally's. Be sure to catch the fountain show at Bellagio, they do it on the hour and half hour, best at night when they're illuminated. It's still going to be very hot in Vegas two weeks from now (no issue for me where I'm from) but at 112 degrees, you may not want to wander up and down the strip trying different casinos. I've played at Caesar's, Bally's, Flamingo, Paris, New York New York, Luxor, and MGM. (Also Barbary Coast when I needed a $5 table to try an aggressive progression.) I'll wish you luck as the date draws closer. In the meantime, recite every basic strategy combination every day as you're driving to and from work, and then work on the seven exceptional hands (the Mag 7) and the two exceptions based on your own hand composition.

I was just in Vegas two weeks ago, Buffarino. Like I said, CSM's have made very few encroachments on the strip. They tend to show up if a place expands, or in newly opened casinos.

work on the seven exceptional hands (the Mag 7) and the two exceptions based on your own hand composition.


would some one please explain to a novice about the (Mag 7) and exceptions.[/quote]

Also a good way to quit a shoe (at least for once a session) is to ask for a marker for a "bathroom" trip.

For the sake of ther almighty dollar, drive over the mountains to a real game. Show the CSM casinos that you won't play a "neutralized" game of blackjack. If you do, the machines will eventually take over -- then you can put blackjack into the same class with craps.

CD said:

Desert Dog:

It sounds like you are doing well against the CSM's in Arizona. Are you using a progression based on a running count? I have been trying that, and also trying to use table selection (looking for friendlier machines that are paying out to all at table). So far, I've had mixed results, ahead about 20 units after 12 hours & 5 trips - with very good trips + 50 units, to bad trips, - 30 units. The casino has just opened, is run by the local indian tribe, and has King machines on all BJ tables.

Any ideas from the members would be appreciated. I know that a drive over the mountains to a countable game is the first option, but having the casino 15 minutes away is tempting & convenient.

thanks,

CD

I'm sure you don't mean a progression based on a running count at a CSM because there can't be a running count there. Yeah, I'd say I've done okay at CSMs but it would only be due to luck. I usually also just flat bet at them now, based on an observation by Walter Thomason. If I'm at a casino that has both CSM's and shoes, I'll play awhile at a CSM just to get psyched up to move over to a shoe and start counting. It also makes it look like I don't care what kind of device is at the table. The thing about CSM's is their house advantage is slightly more favorable to the player than a six deck shoe, leaving aside counting (obviously). If I want a night out where I can have a couple of drinks and kick back, and not care if I lose a little money, I'll play at a CSM. If I want to use my wits and have fun that way, minimum limit CSM's only for a little while, then on to the shoes, either with backcounting or straight in.

Someone ought to buy a CSM and take it apart to see what's going on inside. Like is there a pattern to where it places the 20 or so cards that have just been reloaded?

I think the whole basis of counting is that the cards that are sitting in the discard tray are no longer available. If that shallow stack in the discard tray is dumped back into the CSM after every hand, they're available again.

Probably the best way to beat the CSM's is to boycott them. The more remote casino in my area, Fort McDowell, reverted to mostly shoe tables to draw players from the more convenient locations. This in turn put pressure on one of the two more conveniently located ones to introduce shoes at about 25% of its tables and I'm guessing we'll see an increase in that.

Mr. Ed- They are all good, but how about this :
We find as full of a table as we can with a CSM and sit down to play. We say, loud enough for all to hear, "you know you can't beat these dang card machines, they always give the house more 20"s and BJ's than they do the players". Now we try and use the selective memory thing. As soon as the dealer gets a BJ or a 20 you say "See what I mean" and leave the table. By the way, this does not work well, after winning 19 out of 20 hands.... :wink:

Now what are your plans for the 6:5 blackjack games, something I see as more ominous than the CSMs, at least the house advantage is less than .5% on a lot of CSM games.

midnite said:

Mr. Ed- They are all good, but how about this :
We find as full of a table as we can with a CSM and sit down to play. We say, loud enough for all to hear, "you know you can't beat these dang card machines, they always give the house more 20"s and BJ's than they do the players". Now we try and use the selective memory thing. As soon as the dealer gets a BJ or a 20 you say "See what I mean" and leave the table. By the way, this does not work well, after winning 19 out of 20 hands.... :wink:

About CSM’s -- CSM's have a "ramp" or buffer of cards waiting to be dealt that aren't part of the ongoing churn inside. I’m unsure of exact size but my best guess on a 5 deck CSM is the ramp holds 14 cards (because there are 19 "shelves" inside a CSM, and one shelf at a time gets placed in the ramp. 260/19 = 13.684.) I had once been told by a dealer that the ramp was 25 cards, but I have my doubts.

If you've just played a round that would raise the count from zero to 10 or 15 (unusual but not all that rare), that means a true count for that next hand of +2 or +3 in a five deck CSM. You’re guaranteed that the next fourteen cards out won’t have any from that super-low round, and there’s little chance of more than one of those cards from that super-low round making it into the next fourteen if the ramp has to refill during the deal of the next round.

At a CSM we all know that keeping a running count from one round to the next makes no sense whatsoever, but round by individual round I now think it's a good idea to watch for extremely light or heavy boards, and then bet and play (or even sit out) the next hand accordingly.

Does anyone see any flaws in this thinking?

Sorry Desert Dog, my post was a little rude, so I'll try again:

The short answer is "Yes" you can use advantage play with a CSM, using the method you describe. BUT, the advantage will be very small indeed, and opportunities will be rare.

I would suggest you avoid CSMs and use your counting skills with a shoe or pitch game. You will have much more success.

Good luck.


p.s. I've also heard that CSMs give the dealer more 20s and BJs! :wink: