Too simplified betting?
  • I'm still in the process of learning to count. I'm getting better, but it still takes a lot of concentration from me. Therefore, I haven't really varied my bets much at casinos for fear that anyone who takes a look at me could tell I was counting.

    What I have done, though, is basically to double my bet when the true count is roughly +3 or more, and then bet minimum otherwise. I'm assuming that I get a small gain from that, but I wondered how much it might be? Most betting systems I see use at least 4 levels of betting, if not many more. Does each level really increase the EV that much?
  • What kind of game? SD? DD? 6D? rules?

    a 1-3 spread isn't enough to beat a 6D shoe if you are playing every hand. Now if you stand back, and count while not playing, and jump in when the count hits +2 or +3, that's a different matter and you can win doing that...
  • It was a S17, double down after split allowed, 6D -- not sure what else I may be leaving out. I guess the question isn't if I could beat the game, but rather if simply upping your bet when the count is good and going to minimum when it isn't really helps at all; or if you have to be more disciplined and really stick to a betting system.
  • is what you propose. Bet big when the count is up, bet small (preferably zero) when the count is 0 or negative.

    The problem is, in a shoe game, the count is up less than 1/3 of the time. so that 2/3 of the time you are playing with the house having the advantage. To overcome that, you have to bet bigger when you have the edge. 1:3 is just about break-even when you think about it. 2/3 of the time you expect to lose more than you win, 1/3 of the time you expect to win more than you lose. If you "wong" you can get away without spreading, since you are betting zero at negative counts, which is like an infinite spread were you playing every hand.

    So 1-3 (1 at <=0 and 3 at >=1) will get you to about even with the house. The higher your big bet, the bigger your overall edge over the house...
  • I see what you are saying. When you said 3-1 before, I was assuming that meant 3 levels of betting rather than 3x your bet.

    One thing you said puzzled me, though. Why would the count be >0 one third of the time? Are you assuming count =0 1/3, count<1 1/3 and Count>1 1/3? I would think it would be better than 1/3 -- not 1/2, but closer to 1/2 than 1/3. Although if you figure in true count with a 6 shoe deck, maybe that is where you come up with it .
  • most of us refer to a "spread".

    For example, when I play DD, I spread 1-8. I may bet 2 units after the shuffle, and if the count tanks, I drop to 1, if it goes up I increase, up to a max of 8 units. The idea is to bet small when you expect to lose, and vice-versa.

    The wider the spread, the greater your win rate. Unfortunately, also, the more you will "stand out". I know someone that spreads from $5 to 2 x $60 at a SD game. Don't know how in hell he gets away with it, but he does. With the right "act" I suppose anything is possible. I've not tried to push the envelope that far, because once they catch on to you, it's too late to change...
  • It is not likely that the count will be exactly zero very often. So we can
    say that most of the time the count will be somewhat positive or somewhat
    negative. However, there is a problem in our logic if we attempt to play
    some strategy based on the count being somewhat positive. At a plus one
    true count we only have an even game. Anything less than that and the
    dealer has the advantage(neg EV). You will receive an advantage count
    (greater than +1) about 20% of the time, not 33%. This is why winning at
    the shoe game is such a big challenge to start with. There are several ways around this problem and backcounting is just one of them.
  • Here's the CVCX numbers for a DD game I used to play a lot until it just got blown up and down the MS coast. DD, 75+% pen, S17, LS, DOA, DAS, resplit 3 times, NRSA.

    Game is considerably better than -.5% off the top. So good that I actually start to ramp my bet at +1... About 65% of the hands are played with TC <= 0, 35% at TC >= 1, which was where my 33% came from...

    With a similarly good 6D game (say at MGM Grand) your 20% number is right on the mark. BTW in the 6D game, the count is exactly zero 38% of the time according to CVCX. In my DD game it is closer to 33% for zero counts.. Obviously one way to do better at a shoe game is to play a SD/DD game. :)
  • Its okay, but not perfect maybe needs a bit more work.

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