Mr. Ed

9,9, vs. 3
Standing with 99v3 is a winner, but splitting is a bigger winner. The call is closer with 99v2. Be careful with selective memory - you'll remember the one time you lost all bets when doubling after splitting, but forget when you won one han…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
How long (how many hands) qualifies "long-term"?
Consider a random process with an expected value (EV) of 0.01 and a standard deviation of 1.1. After 1,000,000 samples, the expected value is 10,000 and the SD is 1.1(1,000,000))^.5=1,100. There is a 95% chance your actual results will be between …

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Luck and timing
If one could figure out a way to "achieve" luck, it wouldn't be luck any more, it would be skill. But even though a counter knows he has a long-term 1.5% advantage, on any given play, hour, day or even month, luck will have more of…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Definiton of term
In my casino, 8 decks are used, but the shoe only gets one riff per shuffle! Sometimes two riffs. No wonder shuffle trackers are in business. Nine riffs (i.e. 2^9>8*52) are necesary to completely shuffle 8 decks.

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Novice who needs advice!
Make sure you know Basic Strategy perfectly! HitOrStand is excellent practice. But be aware that this game is designed for a multiple deck game, where the dealer stands on a soft 17 (s17), the game allows doubling after splitting, and does not all…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
winning without counting....
I'm so jealous - I go to Foxwoods at 3:00am on a Wednesday and I'm happy to find a seat at a $10 table. Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas any more!

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
winning without counting....
Grifter, I'll clarify: 200 hands per hour - this is my guess at what a table might see in an hour. I thought 5 players at a table, each getting 40 hands/hour, was low, if anything. $50 average bet - I was thinking of a table with a minimum b…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
winning without counting....
Grifter, no offense taken - I did make up the numbers. But do you think a casino could offer BJ (and make a profit!) if every player used perfect BS?

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Surrender
PJ, better to split 88v9,10,A than to surrender. With an 8, you could catch a 2 or 3, and head for a 20 or 21. You could catch a 9, 10 or A and end up with 17, 18, or 19. If you get an 8, you can split again. With 4,5,6 or 7 you get another chan…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Surrender
Only half your bet! You surrender (give up) half your bet so you don't have to play out your hand and possibly lose the whole thing. Think about 16v10: 7 cards will bust you. The dealer likely has a 10 underneath, so, of the remaining 5 car…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
To Double or not to double
WizardOfOdds is a trusted site (by me, anyway). Glad I could help. It's good to know the numbers. It won't take the pain away, but at least you won't be surprised when you lose with a 17v5. You'll also be smugly happy with …

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
winning without counting....
I'm not so sure. What does it cost the casino to run a table for a year? Say $250,000. With a house advantage of 0.5%, that's a handle of $50 million/year. A table is open 24/7, so that's maybe 8000 hours a year (I'm rounding …

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
To Double or not to double
I learn best by example, so here goes... For BJ vs 6, your EV is 1.5. That means for every $1 you bet, you can expect $1.50 in profit. Say your EV is -0.60. That means for every dollar you bet, you can expect to lose $0.60. For example, you mig…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Surrender
jm2552, surrender is definately part of BS, it just isn't offerend in the HitOrStand game. You should definitely use surrender. Surrender 15v10 and 16v9,10,A. (Split 88v10) If the dealer forgets to check her hole card, surrender 5-7,12-17vA…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Progressions, do they or don't they
I'm surprised the win rate (percentage of hands won) isn't affected much. I would expect the dealer to bust more in high counts since he still has to hit 12-16.

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
To Double or not to double
At bjmath.com, there are EV tables, which show you the expected value from hitting, standing, doubling and splitting (if you can) for every three card dealer/player combination. You can get a very accurate answer to your question. I always keep tw…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Going to Vegas Tonight!
Use the Mr. Ed method: Play two spots. Start with $10 on each spot. After each round, pull back any extra bets from splitting or doubling. Remove one red chip. Add chips if you need to get back to $10 on each spot. Max out at two bets of $50 (or…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
winning without counting....
"Backroom tactics" do happen to law abiding advantage players. It is very rare, but even one event is not acceptable. That is why one needs to be careful and not advertise that one is counting. But casinos are not completely stupid - i…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Heard at the casino today.....
There was an older lady with a match play coupon who sat down and said, "How do I use this?". Clearly her first encounter with BJ. She got a 13v6. She looked at the rest of us and said, "What do I do?". We all said, "You …

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Heard at the casino today.....
One of the first times I ever palyed, I had a player leave in disgust after I hit A7v9. I, of course, busted and he ended up loosing. As my confidence lie shattered, and my spirits were low, the guy next to me said, "That guy's been as a…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Heard at the casino today.....
I think dealers are really trying to give good advice. Of course, I also think that a lot of dealers have never picked up a blackjack book or even tried to fully work out the logic behind their advice. But no matter, I believe their intentions are…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
winning without counting....
whoops, I need to add a caveat..... ...unless the count dictates a deviation from BS.

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
winning without counting....
How does someone "put to faith", as in "You guys are putting to much faith in B/S." Actually I don't have faith in BS, I know BS is a statistical expectation - I've modeled it myself. And I also have a good handle on …

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Your thoughts on these two betting structures...
Hayswill, How do you vary from the Hit or Stand Game? Go to the "Links" tab up above. Click on "Blackjack Info". You can get Basic Strategy for a variety of rules. Given a set of game rules, there is a specific Basic Strategy…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Heard at the casino today.....
Did you tell him you stopped playing CSM's because they give the dealer more 20's? :wink: Actually, did you know the word gullible is not in the dictionary? :wink: Really, it's actually a French slang word that is not proper English…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
clines book
Huh? I don't get the analogy. Anyway, it's good to know the percentages for each hand. If you like that stuff, there is a table on bjmath.com that shows each possible 3-card combination and the EV for standing, hitting, doubling or spli…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Your thoughts on these two betting structures...
Be carful about increasing your bet by TOO much. You'd feel terrible if you had a big bet out, and had to split a pair of 8's against a 10, then resplit, then catch a 3 and double, and loose all four max bets! You'd loose it all in…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
clines book
unclenorm, please stop beginnning a new thread every time you post - I get very confused. Would you let us know what this book is all about? There are a lot of crappy, false, misleading books about blackjack and I'm certainly NOT going to buy…

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
winning without counting....
It's called, "Beat the Odds Blackjack: Playing Percentages without Counting". I looked for about 5 minutes and could not find a review or a description of the book - just how to buy it. The cover looks nice, though.

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink
Drinking and Playing
Yes. Of course I drink. I smoke cigars, too.

Comment by Mr. Ed February 2004 permalink

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Username: Mr. Ed
Joined: September 2003
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Last Active: January 1970
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